NFL Draft, 1st Pick: An Examination of the Past and a Look at the Present

Seven "Booms", seven "Busts",  one "Pseudo-Boom", five players in the previously explained "Purgatory" of #1 overall, four yet to be decided, and one player whom I will not judge, because I'm not sure how to judge him (Bo Jackson).

So, from this list, we can see we have twenty #1 overall picks whose careers are fair to judge.

Given the expectations (that are highly justified, I might add) that come with being selected #1 overall, eight of these players, it seems, can be deemed "successful" #1 overall picks (Seven "Booms", one "Pseudo-Boom"). Twelve (Seven "Busts", five in "Purgatory") however, can be deemed "unsuccessful" to varying degrees.

That's a 60% failure rate the teams with the first overall selection have had since 1983.

Does anyone else find this figure perplexing?

Drawing on what I said earlier regarding the refinement of the scouting process and the fast-growing expanse of "professional" opinion, it seems as though "perplexing" is the only way to describe it—particularly since we are, after all, talking about the first overall choice.

So, in light of the facts, how do we explain the woes of some #1 draft picks?

More importantly, how do we explain why teams wasted so much money on them?

To be honest, there is no "good" answer to any of these questions. Given the amount of money shelled out to scout and cover the draft, both my teams and media outlets, if there was a magic formula, we'd know it.

When I find myself contemplating the answers to these (literally) million dollar questions, I think an appreciation of three factors can help us better understand things:

1. Faulty Scouting—Given our limited resources, at least relative to NFL teams and media outlets, it's difficult for us to pinpoint flaws in the scouting work these teams have done.

What I can say with confidence, however, is that all the athletic ability in the world isn't going to make a football player—a lesson many draft experts\team personnel could use to learn.

2. Cirmustance-This is a little appreciated but highly relevant consideration.

Simply put, some players are put into better situations than others.

Whether it's a weak supporting cast, a resurgent veteran who cuts into playing time, mistreatment at the hands of the drafting organization, or a devestating injury, adverse and sometimes unfair circumstances can contribute vastly to whether or not a player finds success.

3. The "it" Factor-I'm sure most readers know what I'm talking about. The "it" factor has a malleable set of criteria, depending on who you ask.

For me, the criteria is a mix of intangibles, clutch ability, and innate athletic ability that is "translatable" (i.e. able to be transferred onto the football field) that a player possesses allowing him to transcend circumstance, and thus be properly equipped to succeed in any situation.

Of the eight #1 overall picks since 1983 I deemed "successful", I believe four unquestionably would be able to "transcend circumstance" any thus would have been able to succeed in virtually any situation.

They are, in order of how much "it" they possess(ed): John Elway, Peyton Manning, Bruce Smith, Orlando Pace.

Elway, in my opinion the best QB of all time, had both special, rare athletic ability and unparalleled intangibles.

Peyton Manning has some of the best intagibles in football history.

Bruce Smith was not only a tremendous athlete, but also had one of the greatest motors of all time

Lastly, I'm not sure about Orlando Pace's intangibles, but anyone who watched him block knows the guy would have been a superstar anywhere as a result of his dominating athletic talents. 

Thus, after much research and long-winded writing, I can offer but three conclusions:

First, we must realize that "circumstance" does and will play an integral role in how many players fare in the NFL.

Secondly, the scouting process remains flawed and highly inexact.

Thirdly, and most importantly, there are some players who have "it", which makes them able to succeed under most circumstances—and these, my friends, are the players who really are special.

I'll round out my article my giving my take on the Dolphins options with the #1 pick, with a particular emphasis on the "it" factor.

Option #1: Matt Ryan, QB: Ryan has shown himself to have superb intangibles, as evidenced by his clutch play throughout this past year. He was also productive despite a less than stellar supporting cast.

His 19 interceptions are a cause for concern, though, and he doesn't have any standout physical tools.

Bottom Line: He's got some "it", that's for sure.

Option #2: Jake Long, OT: It's tough to evaluate the intangibles of an OT. What I can say with confidence, however, is that Long is not the type of guy with otherworldy athleticism.

Bottom Line: For now, I'm inclined to say that Long is "nothing more" than a top-drawer offensive line prospect.

Option #3: Chris Long, DE\LB: When you're Howie Long's son, you're going to have tremendous intangibles, it's about as cut-and-dry as that. Chris isn't a transcendent athlete, but he's more than solid in that regard.

And the pick is......

Chris Long. Given his surplus of "it" and the fact that the Dolphins need to give John Beck another year, I think the best way to go is Chris Long.

In all honesty, people, ask yourself: Is Chris Long, a straight and narrow guy with solid athleticism along with top notch intangibles and genetics going to fail in the NFL?

In my opinion, the answer is an unequivocal "No". Given what I've written in this article, that should tell you something. 

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