2012 NBA Draft Order: Predicting Stat Lines for Projected Top 5 Picks

Logic JohnsonContributor IIIMay 31, 2012

2012 NBA Draft Order: Predicting Stat Lines for Projected Top 5 Picks

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    Well, the Hornets are your big winners, it seems. Now begins the era of the uni-brow in the Big Easy...  

    New Orleans will be reaping the benefits of Anthony Davis come next season, this much is all but decided. And while the rest of the top five is not so cut and dry, it's still not much of a stretch to predict how each will go down...and for the record, I have Bradley Beals going sixth and filling the void left by Brandon Roy.

    Looking at the teams the following five players are likely to land on, we take a look at their likeliest stat lines this time next year. Some will be productive right out of the gate, while others may take longer to adjust to life this level of competition.

    Read on, and do share if you disagree...

5. Harrison Barnes (Sacramento)

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    The Kings' rebuilding plan has already netted them a promising point guard, a star 2-guard, and a super-talented (albeit troublesome) center. Time to fill some needs at forward. Just their luck; Harrison Barnes will probably be up for grabs.

    He's not the most capable passer or rebounder for his position, but he's not just a scoring machine either. His defensive skills won't jump out at you in a nightly box score, but he's an above-average defender who knows how to make life hard on opposing offenses.

    Here's hoping he picks up some more raw explosion, otherwise he might find himself settling into the role of tweener; too small for the 4, not nimble enough for the 3. 

    18.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks

    FG's: .445 Threes: 325 FT's: .740

    All-Rookie First Team

4. Andre Drummond (Cleveland)

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    Some think Bradley Beal would make a nice fit alongside Kyrie Irving, but this club is in full-on rebuilding mode (progress notwithstanding), and they say the two most important positions are the 1 and the 5.

    Andre Drummond may not have a top five resume, but look at the guy. Stick a couple of conditioning coaches and shooting instructors on him, and this team could find itself swimming in low-post baskets and second chance points.

    Of course, you can't teach size. Drummond's physique alone will get him by for a while. He'll likely start things out as a serious work in progress, after which he might hit his stride and really show what he can do before the season's over.

    8.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.7 blocks. 

    FG's: .495 Three: 0/0 FT's: .615

    All-Rookie Second Team

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Washington)

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    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist would make an ideal addition to the Wiz, who are just about done with the Rashard Lewis experiment  He's known for his positive attitude, he knows how to hurt you offensively, especially when going to the basket, so he'll do his damage in the scoring column.

    He's a strong rebounder for his size—between his high energy and superior timing—and that should show up in his numbers. He's also above-average defender, but not in any numerically measurable way.

    Still, he'll also prove to be the most statistically well-rounded of all the names on this list. All he needs is a more consistent touch from long range.

    12.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.9 blocks

    FG's: .458 Three: .280 FT's: .720

    All-Rookie First Team

2. Thomas Robinson (Charlotte)

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    Although Charlotte will miss out on Anthony Davis, Robinson will make a fine consolation prize. While nowhere near the defensive game-changer Davis is, he's more of a scoring dynamo and can do more to create offense than Davis does. He's also far more NBA-ready from a physical standpoint.

    Robinson plays with a degree of aggression that translates well at the pro level, and will put him in position to score some extra garbage points and offensive boards. Robinson will probably share the top two in rookie rebounding, as well as scoring, assuming he takes advantage of the Bobcats' lack of go-to scorers to put up a robust stat line.

    Maybe that shooting touch improves a tad as the months go by.

    16.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.1 blocks

    FG's: .470 Threes: negligible FT's: .655

    All-Rookie First Team.

1. Anthony Davis (New Orleans)

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    A rich man's Marcus Camby, Davis is going to make life hell on opposing shooters. His combination of lateral mobility and insane wingspan (i.e. vertical reach) allows him to pick off shots from unusual distances, as well as disturb the passing lanes. Basically, you're looking at a Defensive Player of the Year in the making.

    He's also able to get above the rim with unusual speed (there goes that word again) thanks to his ultra-lanky frame and light feet, where he'll post scoring numbers typical of a still-burgeoning stud. 

    On the minus side, one wonders if he'll get so many clean looks while getting pushed around regularly by his burlier counterparts—that is until he throws some meat on those pipe cleaners. 

    14.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.0 blocks

    FG's: .520 Threes: negligible FTs: .715

    Rookie of the Year, presumably.