Jake Peavy Reminds Us That It's 2012, Not 2007

Steven KersteinContributor IMay 16, 2012

CHICAGO, IL - MAY 15:  Starting pitcher Jake Peavy #44 of the Chicago White Sox delivers the ball against the Detroit Tigers at U.S. Cellular Field on May 15, 2012 in Chicago, Illinois. The Tigers defeated the White Sox 10-8.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Imagine this scenario.  

Your college professor assigns you a prompt for your final term paper.  After slaving on the essay for countless hours, you feel accomplished and confident that you delivered a quality product.

 Before turning in your paper the next morning, you realize that you misread the prompt and frantically have to produce something quickly. Anything.

Yeah, I was the schmuck to rant about how great Jake Peavy has been in the early part of the season.  Then the 6th inning of yesterday's game against the Tigers happened.

Like the frantic college student, I had to come up with something about the 2007 NL Cy Young Winner on the spot. Anything that would get a couple chuckles out of you.

But seriously, how excited were you that Jake Peavy's early success wasn't a fluke? While I don't want to toot my own horn, his mid-game meltdown wasn't exactly a shocker to me.

How often can a guy who's topping out at 92 MPH with a mediocre breaking ball get lucky?

Time after time, it seems like Peavy has gotten guys to hit "at-um" balls as Hawk likes to call them.  Of course, this was holding true until Tuesday afternoon.  Both Cabrera's and Raburn's shots were more likely to be caught by beer vendors than major league outfielders.

Regardless of my pestering pessimism, Peavy's stat line still exceeds any type of realistic expectations.  4-1 W-L 2.65 ERA 0.92 WHIP is hardly mediocre.

While fans claim that he's pitching like it's 2007, I tend to disagree.  When Peavy was dominant, he was striking out guys at a phenomenal clip.  Over the course of his career in San Diego, the righty boasted a 8.8 K/9.

Despite his early season numbers, he's only striking out 7.5 K/9.  Smells a little fishy.

Let's use some deductive reasoning to make an educated conclusion regarding the Alabama native.

At 2.65, his ERA is nearly a full point below his career mark of 3.44.  His 0.92 WHIP is also way below his normal 1.19. Add in the fact that his control has been a bit above his average and you've got some evidence.  

By some type of geometric property, it seems like Peavy is getting lucky.  He has to be.

Once he goes around the league, hitters will start jumping on him early in the count.  

When it comes down to it, his stuff isn't what it once was. Coupled with the fact that he needs to have 100% pinpoint location to consistently be effective and you've got a ticking time bomb.

Having said this, I'm hoping that Peavy proves me wrong.  But here's my expectations for the rest of the season: 7-8 W-L 4.67 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. 

Kenny, trade him while you can.

While this piece might not be glowing with optimism, I couldn't put out a column that I truly didn't believe in.  Let alone one that made it seem like we warped back to 2007 where Jake Peavy was a stud and I was sleeping in trigonometry.