Did the results of the 2012 Kentucky Derby provide any indication of what to expect in the Preakness Stakes? My answer to that is a resounding yes.
I'll Have Another was the victor at the 138th Kentucky Derby Saturday at Churchill Downs, but that's just the main story.
If you consider the progression of the horses, the difference in distance from the Derby to the Preakness, and a little bit of history, there are a few key takeaways.
Here is the race in its entirety from the official Kentucky Derby YouTube channel, followed by a breakdown of how the Derby results will affect the Preakness.
Front-Runners Will Fair Better At Preakness
Fans of Bodemeister and Trinniberg should feel encouraged after both horses had impressive starts. If this were the Preakness, it's possible Bodemeister could have held I'll Have Another off for the win.
Trinniberg had his expected fast start, but could not compete as the race went along. This was expected as his owner, Shivananda Parbhoo, wasn't even completely sold on running him in the Derby initially. As told to Brisket.com:
"I'm still 85 percent for the Preakness, 15 percent for the Kentucky Derby," the owner reiterated.
"Everybody likes the Derby; I like it, too. Everybody wants to win that race, but if I think he's not capable of going a mile and a quarter, why go just to run?
"I don't want to ruin the horse and there are so many races for three-year-olds. His breeding says a mile to a mile and a sixteenth, and that's it. He's a good horse, and I want to keep him a good horse."
It appears the plan has been to have Trinniberg shine at the Preakness all along. From what I saw at the Derby, he is position to make that his best performance.
Who will win the Preakness Stakes?
I'll Have Another Won't Win Again
Enjoy the I'll Have Another and jockey Mario Gutierrez story now, because they aren't likely to have as much luck at the Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. They overcame 15-1 odds to win the Derby, but the shorter Preakness does not give them the time to show the horses' closing ability.
The Preakness is made for sprinters, and I'll Have Another will have better luck at the Belmont Stakes, which is even longer than the Derby.
Union Rags is Fool's Gold
With all the hype behind Union Rags, he was perhaps the most disappointing horse in the field. He finished a disappointing fifth despite becoming the late favorite before the race started.
This performance proved that his second-place finish in the Florida Derby was a solid indication of how Union Rags will run in Grade I races. I wouldn't be duped again by this horse.
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