Union Rags has been tagged as a favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but I wouldn't bet on it.
It's true that Union Rags is a powerful, three-year-old colt. But the Derby will feature a field better suited to succeed at Churchill Hill Downs.
The experts seem sold on Union Rags' success at the Derby on Saturday, May 5. But I think they are wrong.
I'm concerned with his most recent runs. He finished third in a race with a less-than-stellar field at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby.
To make things more concerning, the race was one and one eighth mile. It was his longest run and worst finish in the last five races.
The Derby is an even longer run at one and one-quarter mile. Some may point to the fact that Union Rags is a strongly built colt, best suited for late charges.
In fact, he was making a nice run at the end of the Florida Derby. But I'm into results, and in my opinion, Union Rags hasn't produced in the opportunities to prove he is prepared to win the Kentucky Derby.
There are other horses in the field, such as Bodemeister and Gemologist, that have shown development, and upward trending.
They both won their longest runs and most recent races. Bodemeister was especially dominant at the Arkansas Derby.
Sometimes we can over-think things as prognosticators. In some cases, what you've seen is an indication of what you'll get.
This is one of those situations. Union Rags will be fortunate to finish third in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.