Why Tyler Hansbrough Will Break the ACC Scoring Record
Back on Dec. 19, I made the not so bold prediction that barring injury, Tyler Hansbrough would break the ACC scoring record held by Duke's J.J. Redick. This isn't a bold prediction because it is simple math really. Let's see where things stand today.
UNC has 11 games remaining in the regular season (including tonight's game against FSU). Tyler is averaging a career-best 22.7 points per game so far this season. His current point total stands at 2,509, while J.J. Redick's is 2,769. That's a difference of 260.
If Tyler averages his current PPG for the remainder of the regular season, he'll enter postseason play 10 points behind Redick. If UNC had the most disappointing season in recent history, they'd play at least five games in the postseason: losing in the semifinals of the ACC tourney and losing in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tourney. So Tyler would need to get 10 points in five games.
But let's say Tyler doesn't maintain his current average and dips to a career low 18.3 points per game. 16 games x 18.3 points would give him another 292 points—well above the 260 he needs.
If we look at last year, Tyler averaged more points per game in February and March, and his minutes per game also went up. This being his senior season, there is a good chance we'll see him turn it up a notch going into the last two months of his college career.
Take a look at the following chart to see how his points per game average trended over the past two seasons.
So it is pretty clear that barring injury or some other catastrophe, Tyler will become the all-time ACC scoring leader. And if you compare Tyler and J.J. (using the recently updated Player Comparison feature on StatSheet), you can see he did it averaging significantly fewer minutes per game than J.J.
During J.J.'s senior season, he averaged a career-high 37 minutes per game, while Tyler is currently averaging a career LOW in minutes per game (28.8). Sure, Tyler's MPG will undoubtedly rise over the next two months, but it will never be close to what J.J. averaged.
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