Todd McShay 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Picks ESPN Expert Will Regret
All things considered, McShay generally does a solid job of predicting the draft, despite its inherent unpredictability.
However, every draft prognosticator has a few picks they wish they could take back.
After all, McShay's ESPN counterpart Mel Kiper Jr. is perhaps the most well-known draftnik of them all, and he has been high on historical flops such as Andre Ware, Mike Williams and Ryan Leaf—all picks that Kiper certainly regrets.
Busts don't come along very often, but there are still some players that may leave McShay shaking his head when he looks back at his 2012 mock draft.
Ryan Tannehill to Miami Dolphins at No. 8
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Every year, it seems that there's one quarterback that analysts just can't find a consensus on.
In 2012, that quarterback is Ryan Tannehill.
The Texas A&M product spent almost two-and-a-half years playing wide receiver for the Aggies before making the change to quarterback. After only one-and-a-half seasons as a quarterback on the college level, Tannehill now finds himself a consensus top-10 draft selection.
At least, that's what McShay would have you believe.
The ESPN draft guru has been the conductor of the Tannehill hype train, even mocking him to the Cleveland Browns with the fourth overall selection in earlier versions of his mock.
In McShay's latest mock, Tannehill is worthy of a top-10 pick, with the Miami Dolphins selecting the quarterback.
Not only does Tannehill have the potential to be a bust—McShay could be overestimating his draft stock tremendously.
Quarterbacks are always the hardest position to predict in a draft, especially with a prospect as hard to gauge as Tannehill.
In 2010, McShay and most draftniks felt that Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was a top-ten selection as a quarterback. He was selected 48th overall by the Carolina Panthers.
Tannehill has the raw skills to eventually succeed in the NFL. His 6'4" 221-pound frame is the prototypical size that NFL scouts love to see in a quarterback, and his days at wide receiver speak for his athleticism.
The problem with Tannehill being selected in the top 10 is the immense pressure that comes with the title of being a top-10 selection. It may create expectations that he is not ready to fulfill early in his career.
If Tannehill struggles early, this may be a pick McShay wishes he could have back.
Dontari Poe to Dallas Cowboys at No. 14
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Dontari Poe was one of the biggest winners of the combine.
The 6'5" nose tackle is an absolute specimen. He saw his stock skyrocket after running an impressive 4.98-second 40-yard-dash, and a whopping 44 reps on the 225-pound bench press.
Poe is the very definition of a workout warrior. Based on game tape and production, Poe was found near the end of the first round, if at all, on most analysts' mocks. After posting great numbers in the workout setting Poe's stock has seen a sharp rise.
McShay is among those who believe the hype and has Poe landing with the Dallas Cowboys as the 14th overall selection.
McShay's evaluation of Poe could have him shaking his head a few years from now if he turns out to be more Dan Williams than B.J. Raji.
If you're asking who Dan Williams is, then you get my point.
In 2010, Dan Williams was among the hottest nose tackle prospects in the draft. A mammoth in his own right, Willams was rated highly by Mel Kiper Jr. and McShay—who had him in the top 10 in some versions of his mock.
Despite the hype, Williams saw a fairly substantial slide on draft day—waiting until the 24th selection before being taken by the Arizona Cardinals. Williams has largely been a bust, registering 58 career tackles with zero sacks in his limited playing time.
Poe's lack of production is concerning. While production doesn't tell the whole story for defensive tackles—especially in systems that require DTs to eat up a lot of space and free up linebackers—it is still a bit concerning that Poe didn't put up better numbers playing in Conference USA at Memphis.
Whether Poe turns out to be a good player at the NFL or not, McShay's selection for the Cowboys is still a head-scratcher.
Poe is not among the most NFL-ready prospects, and for a team that wants to win now, a pick like Alabama safety Mark Barron or Stanford guard David DeCastro makes more sense as a plug-and-play option that would help this team win right away.
Kendall Reyes to San Francisco 49ers at No. 30
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By all accounts, Kendall Reyes appears to be a solid prospect.
The defensive tackle from Connecticut will probably never be a Pro Bowler, but it's easy to see him being a strong player on a top-flight defense and a solid addition to any defensive front.
The question is, is this really the best that McShay thinks the 49ers can do?
The 49ers' greatest strength is their defensive front. In 2012, the Niners rode a dominant defense and strong running game to a deep playoff run. They were one of the toughest teams in the NFL and had only one real weakness in the passing game.
Reyes isn't necessarily a bust, but the 49ers and McShay will be left shaking their heads if they pass up a better fit such as Mohamed Sanu or Reuben Randle. Either player could help add depth to the receiving corps right away and develop into the No. 1 receiver role.
If the 49ers do pass on taking a wide receiver with the 30th selection, they will end up relying on Randy Moss as the only major acquisition in the offseason at the position—not a good omen for Alex Smith and Co.
Mike Adams to New York Giants at No. 32
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Todd McShay saves the worst for last with the final selection of his first round mock.
There just isn't a whole lot to like about Mike Adams at this point—especially in the first round.
Questions surrounding his strength arose after the 6'7" 323-pound Ohio State tackle put up an abysmal 19 reps on the bench press in the combine. And now character appears to be a concern with the news that Adams failed a drug test for marijuana use at the combine.
To fail a drug test is one thing—plenty of NFL players have had a past with marijuana use and turned out decent enough (Ricky Williams and Randy Moss come to mind), but to fail a test at the combine is simply inexcusable.
To add on to the growing list of concerns around Adams, the tackle has had his fair share of injuries in his collegiate career.
In 2008, he missed a large portion of the season with injuries to both his knee and his shoulder.
In 2009, Adams missed five games with a knee injury and was suspended for two games.
In 2011, Adams was suspended for the first five games of the season due to his role in the Ohio State memorabilia scandal.
In all, Adams only played one whole season as a Buckeye without missing any games due to suspension or injury. So why does McShay have Adams going to the defending champion New York Giants in the first round?
While Adams is a promising prospect, that many injuries and suspensions should provide enough caution to believe he has bust potential. Apparently McShay doesn't see it that way.