One of the more intriguing storylines in spring training for the White Sox will be the second base battle between Chris Getz, Brent Lillibridge, and Jayson Nix. None of the three have more than 90 major-league at-bats, and for that reason, it will be interesting to see how each does against major-league pitching in March.
Everything that has come out over the winter suggests that 25-year-old Getz has the inside track to the job. He's been in the White Sox organization his whole career and put up some nice numbers at Charlotte last year before being called up to the majors in mid-August.
A quick look at Getz' minor-league numbers in 2008:
At-bats: 404
Hits: 122
Batting average: .302
OBP: .366
Slugging: .448
OPS: .814
2B: 24
HR: 11
Runs: 60
RBI: 52
BB: 41
K: 53
BB/K: 0.77
SB/CS: 11/4
Getz' power numbers were likely inflated by playing at a hitters' park in Charlotte, but there's still a lot to like with these raw numbers. He's a high on-base hitter with good power to the gaps, and as a No. 9 hitter, that's pretty good. In fact, it's essentially the exact opposite of what Juan Uribe was in the No. 9 spot over the last few years. If everything pans out for Getz, he should be an excellent No. 2 hitter for the White Sox someday. Getz seems to be a favorite of Ozzie Guillen, who has likened him to some of the White Sox-killing contact hitters on the Minnesota Twins who spawned the "piranha" label.
But minor-league success (especially at a good hitters park) is far from a guarantee of major-league success. Getz only has seven major-league at-bats under his belt, which makes attempts at predicting his success difficult.
If you believe in projections, there are two out for Getz right now. The Marcel projection shouldn't be used in trying to predict what Getz would do as a starter, as it only projects Getz to have 182 at-bats in 2009. CHONE does have a full projection for Getz, predicting Getz to hit .265 with a .327 OBP and a .696 OPS over 442 at-bats in 2009.
The CHONE projection isn't exactly impressive. It projects Getz' BB/K to be similar to what it was in 2008 with Charlotte (0.71 to 0.77), and adjusting for the major leagues, his stats go down. I'd have to agree that if Getz' BB/K this year is around what it was in the minors in 2008, then his stats will fall off. But I don't think that's an absolute, given that he still is a good contact hitter and that his previous BB/K stats were higher in previous years (1.11 with AA Birmingham in '06, 1.20 with AAA Charlotte in '07). If Getz can keep that stat around 1.00 in 2009, I can see him hitting around .280 with an OBP somewhere in the .350 range.
The numbers I've had in my head for Getz are as follows: ~.275 batting average, ~.340 OBP, ~.730 OPS. These are based on nothing more than a hunch regarding his minor league numbers. They're anything but scientific, I just feel that Getz does have the ability to make adjustments at the MLB level. He's not a "toolsy" player, but he's been able to get by pretty well with what he has so far. I don't see any reason why that can't continue at the MLB level.
Seriously, though, don't start quoting me on those numbers. Any preseason projection, regardless of the method, needs to be taken with a grain of salt. But hey, since it's January and still really cold out, these are fun to play around with.
Something I was thinking about when writing this article was the last hitter to come all the way through (from draft or signing to majors) the White Sox organization and have success. The jury is still out on Josh Fields and Brian Anderson, but both have had their struggles in recent years. Alexei Ramirez doesn't count, as he never spent a day in the minors. Over the last decade or so, I can only think of three players that fit the bill: Joe Crede, Carlos Lee, and Magglio Ordonez. None of those players debuted in the last five years, either, and even Crede only had about two really good seasons (last half of '05, 2006, and first half of '08) in his tenure with the Sox.
Maybe the current wave of young Sox hitters—Getz, Gordon Beckham, Brandon Allen, Dayan Viciedo—will reverse this trend. But it really does speak to just how bad the White Sox farm system was in the middle of the decade at drafting and developing talent.
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