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Currently, there are only three sure-fire first-round quarterbacks: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill.
Last year, there were only two, and four still went within the top-12 picks.
This year will be no different, with quarterbacks being pushed up the draft, and second and third-round prospects getting selected in the first round.
The two surprises will be Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler.
With Ryan Tannehill off the board by the Dolphins' pick, they will be in a bind. A trade down, though, could offer them the chance to select a quarterback and pick up a few picks. Brandon Weeden would be the pick in this case, as his talent is among the best in the entire draft. He is definitely the fourth-best quarterback prospect, and he's also a first-round talent.
After that, the Chiefs, who will probably miss out on a quarterback with their first round pick, will trade up and select Brock Osweiler, who has the arm strength and athletic ability that Matt Cassel lacks.
Few are projecting Weeden or Osweiler in the first round, but teams make drastic decisions to get their franchise quarterback, and these two quarterbacks will be the beneficiaries.