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Categorize the final three guys as players that could merit long-term contract extensions, but have something to prove before McKenzie should open up the silver and black wallet to pay them.
Needs to continue his development as a receiver and stay healthy. He's got a lot of potential, but will he ever be any more than a return specialist that has some receiving ability?
He appears to have everything he needs from a talent perspective, he just needs to run more precise routes and stay healthy
Probability of a long-term contract: 55%
Every year we hear how great he looks, but he tends to disappear in games and hasn't been able to stay healthy. Is it only a matter of time before he remains healthy and blows up? Are his injuries mutually exclusive? I'm not so sure.
McKenzie should also be skeptical. We'll just have to wait and see if Shaughnessy remains healthy and if he does, if that breakout the Raider Nation has been promised will every become reality.
Probability of a long-term contract: 50%
Murphy found himself without much opportunity in the rotation at receiver last season. That can happen for many reasons, but Murphy did produce when given an opportunity and was threatening for 1,000-yard seasons prior to 2011.
It could have had a lot to do with the emergence of Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, but that doesn't mean Murphy might not be in the Raiders future plans.
Murphy should get more opportunity as a fourth receiver and key reserve and he needs to run with those opportunities.
As so long as Murphy doesn't make any huge errors, he should at least have the opportunity to sign a more modest long-term extension.
Probability of a long-term contract: 45%