It's the best of times and the worst of times if you're a Cubs fan.
Baseball is back, and the Cubs are at HoHoKam Park preparing to break a million hearts for the 100th straight year. Literally, 100.
Optimism is required to root for the Cubbies, but this year, I'm not getting sucked in. I don't think the starting rotation is good enough, and the bullpen is nowhere near champion-quality either.
The lineup, however, does seem to pack enough punch to make the Cubs competitive, except for one small hiccup: Lou Piniella is screwing it up.
The Cubs were 18th in runs scored last season. That's not a horrifying statistic, and they could've been worse. However, for a lineup with Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano, that seems like underachieving. In fact, it is underachieving.
How could a lineup with so much potential firepower end up scoring fewer runs than the Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and Florida Marlins?
A lot of people, probably including Sweet Lou, would point to the Cubs’ slow start in April and May, and note the onslaught of runs at the end of the season as evidence. I disagree. The Cubs underachieved because of one thing: Alfonso Soriano was leading off.
Let me pose a situation to you. Let's say you're a major league manager. Your team acquires a right-handed outfielder who hit 46 home runs last year, and has regularly come near 40 dongs every year, but has batted .300 only once, with a career batting average in the .270s, and career OBP in the .320s. Where do you bat him?
If you said "leadoff," pat yourself on the back, because you're ready to match wits with a veteran major league manager with 22 years of experience.
Now, I'm sure Lou's argument for Soriano in the leadoff spot would have been his penchant for stealing bases (46 with Washington in 2006), but if I'm not mistaken, they still allow hitters batting second or third to steal bases, even if the situation might call for it a little bit less.
Anyway, Alfonso only got the green light 25 times last year, stealing 19 bases. It's hard for a guy to repeat a 40-40 season when he isn't even sent 30 times, although that's apparently the reason he's hitting leadoff. It certainly wasn't for his striking on-base percentage of .337.
Soriano did manage 33 home runs, which is a good total for playing 135 games and an outstanding total from the leadoff spot. But this is an even bigger reason he shouldn't have been there. Soriano was the Cubs leader in homers for 2007, but the 33 he knocked out added up to only 70 RBIs.
Know who else had 70 RBI last year? Marlon Byrd. And it only took him 109 games. Derrek Lee had 82 RBI with 11 fewer home runs than Soriano did. 70 RBI is a pretty good total for a leadoff guy, but not for your leading home run hitter.
So who should hit leadoff this year? Well, anyone but Soriano, first of all. Lee's OBP and batting average were much higher than Soriano's. Batting your first baseman leadoff would be unconventional, but so is hitting your best power hitter there. Lee moves okay for a big man, too.
Mark DeRosa is an even more logical choice, as he had a similar batting average to Soriano's, but his OBP was 40 points higher.
However, as a smart manager would have seen, the Cubs acquired a magnificent leadoff option in the off-season: Kosuke Fukudome. The man is known already as a line drive machine, and sometimes those line drives go out of the park, which means if Piniella secretly just loves having power at the top of his lineup, it's still there.
Fukudome consistently hit in the mid- to upper-.300s in Japan, and has shown good speed so far this spring, as the Cubs note on their website.
Let's re-cap: .300 hitter, line-drive machine, good speed, and potential to hit home runs. Does that sound like a better leadoff option than Soriano to anyone but Sweet Lou?
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4 months ago
The title is supposed to be Lou Killing Cubs....
from 4 months ago
Yup, fixed it.
4 months ago
Studies have shown that lineup construction has a very minor effect on runs scored.
Also, the Cubs bullpen is pretty damn good -- Marmol, Howry, Wood, Wuertz and Eyre are all good pitchers.
from 4 months ago
Hmmm..lots of rebuttals to this comment.
A) How were these studies performed? Did they bat the best hitters in real major league lineups in various positions over years to determine run production?
B) How does that "study" not contradict everything logical about a batting order? If Soriano (or any other good hitter) is coming up consistently with nobody on base (or fewer people on base than normal) because of who he's hitting in front of (a pitcher), how is he expected to produce runs for the team? Here's a study: His 70 RBI with 33 homers. I think it's a pretty logical conclusion to draw that if someone were on base in front of Soriano (i.e. if he were hitting 2nd or 3rd) he'd have more RBI, which, coincidentally, means more runs for the team. You can twist data from "studies" to say whatever you want. It's harder to argue with logic.
C) Marmol is talented and young. Howry is young. Wood is Wood. Wuertz and Eyre are good pitchers? They're mediocre. They have no solid closer. The bullpen is mediocre at best, and all I called it was less-than-championship-caliber.
4 months ago
I wouldn't put Lee, DeRosa, or Fukudome at leadoff. Your forgetting about Theriot. Even though he isn't the ideal lead off hitter he is scrapy and will do anything to get on base. He did a good job filling in for Soriano, when he went down with a quad injury. I think the best line up to score as many runs would be: Theriot, Fukudome, Soriano, Rameriz, Lee, Soto, Derosa, Pie/Fuld.
4 months ago
That's an interesting take. I'd love to see someone as scrappy as Theriot leading them off, that kind of energy is awesome. I didn't consider him as heavily, though, since his batting average and OBP were both a little low for a leadoff hitter. I'd definitely project him there over time though. Good call.
4 months ago
justin i love you!
4 months ago
I just have one question about this: Of the home runs that Soriano hit at the leadoff spot, how many led off the game? That's the only real way to determine if the leadoff spot was really his detriment or not because once you get into the game, there's no guarantee that he could lead off another inning. If he were to hit 15 home runs in the first at bat of a game, then yes, that's inhibbiting him, but aside from that you can make the argument that the Cubs might not be doing enough to get on base for him. Yes hitting behind the pitcher is also a problem, which could lead to him leading off the following inning, but you run the same risk when you hit behind low-average guys such as David Ross (.209) and Adam Dunn especially. I mean, Dunn can either strikeout to end the inning, or he homers...meaning that there's no one on base for the guy behind him.
That being said, I'd be surprised if Soriano led off this season. I agree with the idea of moving him down in the lineup to ensure that he gets those guys on base. That, and I want to see more of Ryan Theriot. I love the players who are scrappers, and despite his low average, I think Theriot could have a great impact on the Cubs season.
from 4 months ago
see, i still disagree. the players coming up in front of him are always going to be the 8th hitter and the pitcher, so the chance that someone is on base in front of him, whether they end an inning or not, is low. Let's say the inning starts with the 8 hitter, soriano is just as likely to come up with two outs and nobody on. The beginning innings thing is an issue as well, although he did hit a lot of home runs to lead games off last year too. It just makes more sense to hit him in the middle of the order, especially if you could put a good hitter like Lee in front of him to be on base. And I don't see what a couple of Reds hitters have to do with anything?
And I wouldn't be surprised to see him there, Piniella hasn't made any indication he'll move him anywhere. But like Tyler and I discussed above you, I'd love to see Theriot there too, I just think it might be another year or so before he's ready for that.
from 4 months ago
Adam Dunn and David Ross are being used as comparisons ie: You run the same risk hitting a strong hitter behind them because then the table isn't set, either due to Dunn homering, or ending the inning via an out, it was merely proving the point that you can run into the "no one being on base" argument anywhere in the lineup.
Then look at the way the Cubs could structure the lineup: The lowest batting average in this year's lineup would be Felix Pie's .215, but he's hit at or near .300 in all other levels of baseball. Even Geovany Soto has improved his hitting at every facet of minor league ball. To say that the number eight hitter is a wash seems a little harsh for the Cubs. I'd bet that instead of Soriano up with no one on, the number eight hitter is on second after being bunted over by the pitcher. Granted it's still only the opportunity for 1 (2 at most) RBI, but the opportunities are still there.
4 months ago
Justin,
One comment about stating Howry is young......he is 35 years old. Maybe you should check his actual age and playing experience, because he is definitely a veteran with plenty of bullpen experience.
The Cubs bullpen is actually formidable--check your stats, Mr. Logic.
from 4 months ago
You're absolutely right about Howry, I should've double-checked my stats there, although I'm glad I didn't publish that part in the article. Perhaps I'm too single-minded as a Cubs fan, and he seems young since he's only been at Wrigley for two seasons.
All that being said, my main point here was the lineup. I only said I don't feel the Cubs bullpen is championship caliber, and I don't. Howry is not that great, he's not bad, but not great. They have no one to close yet. Marmol could easily be Joel Zumaya--one year flash in the pan. He was also put in a lot of soft situations last year.
There's probably a long argument to be had here, but it's not the one I was making. Thanks for pointing out the Howry error though.
4 months ago
Good article and good point... Not sure DLee is the choice at the top, but Soriano shouldn't be there either. I don't know enough about how Fukudome will perform, but that's what the spring is for... however, a little Google tells me he had an OBP of about .400 in Japan and won a batting title in '06... Theriot's actually worse at getting on base than Soriano... not sure what DeRosa's status is, but he'd look pretty good up there by getting on and staying put to let the swingers get their cuts.
How about DeRosa, Fukodome, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, CF, Theriot... and if DeRosa can't go you move everyone up and slide the other 2b in the 8 hole.
from 4 months ago
That lineup sounds completely reasonable to me, though I think I might keep Ramirez cleaning up. If they went with that lineup and Fukudome struggles like he has in the spring, I'd put Lee 2nd, have Ramirez clean up, and move Kosuke down between Soto and whoever's in center. They really do have a lot of options without Soriano hitting first.
3 months ago
Bryan:
Adam Dunn doesn't just K and HR. He also BBs a truckload. Look at his OPB. OPB trumps AVG every day of the week and twice on doubleheader day.
12 days ago
Ideal perfect scenario lineup --- now that I've determined you're a true Cubs fan, not a wanna-be.
Fukudome
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Edmonds
DeRosa
Soto
Hoffpauir
Pitcher's Spot
Fukudome
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
DeRosa
Cedeno
Johnson
Pitcher's Spot
Now what's yours>
12 days ago
A) I love fukudome leading off. It's the ideal spot for him, although he's great 2nd or 5th too. I'm surprised (and yet not at all) that it's taken Piniella this long to come to the conclusion that a guy with an extremely high OBP who sees a ton of pitches, has pretty good speed without a ton of power should lead off. But I digress.
B) If it's an ideal lineup, I'm putting Soriano in. So....
1. Fukudome
2. Lee
3. Soriano
4. Ramirez
5. Soto
6. Edmonds
7. Theriot
8. DeRosa/Johnson
9. Pitcher's spot
I like Lee 2nd because it doesn't pressure him to hit for power, and generally guys hit more home runs when not pressing. And I really don't mind him as like a .330+, 15-20 HR guy with Soriano and Ramirez behind him.
I also like that they are so effing stacked now that Theriot is hitting over .300 and I feel justified hitting him 7th, although I do like him in the 2 hole like you have him as well.
Basically, at this point, I don't feel like they can go wrong many ways just because they're hitting so well, but I'm obviously still not a fan of Soriano leading off. I really hope Lou notices that Fuky is ideal for it and continues to put him there.
12 days ago
A) I love fukudome leading off. It's the ideal spot for him, although he's great 2nd or 5th too. I'm surprised (and yet not at all) that it's taken Piniella this long to come to the conclusion that a guy with an extremely high OBP who sees a ton of pitches, has pretty good speed without a ton of power should lead off. But I digress.
B) If it's an ideal lineup, I'm putting Soriano in. So....
1. Fukudome
2. Lee
3. Soriano
4. Ramirez
5. Soto
6. Edmonds
7. Theriot
8. DeRosa/Johnson
9. Pitcher's spot
I like Lee 2nd because it doesn't pressure him to hit for power, and generally guys hit more home runs when not pressing. And I really don't mind him as like a .330+, 15-20 HR guy with Soriano and Ramirez behind him.
I also like that they are so effing stacked now that Theriot is hitting over .300 and I feel justified hitting him 7th, although I do like him in the 2 hole like you have him as well.
Basically, at this point, I don't feel like they can go wrong many ways just because they're hitting so well, but I'm obviously still not a fan of Soriano leading off. I really hope Lou notices that Fuky is ideal for it and continues to put him there.
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