Aqueduct Racetrack: Grade 3 Comely

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent IApril 7, 2012

Welcome Guest, with Ramon Dominguez is the pick in the Comely.
Welcome Guest, with Ramon Dominguez is the pick in the Comely.Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

A field of seven is entered in the Grade Three Comely, but only three horses seem to have a legitimate shot to win.

Broadway's Alibi is clearly the horse to beat, but the added distance and weight are two reasons that this 1-1 morning-line favorite can be beaten. In a surprising move, Javier Castellano gets the mount, while John Velazquez shifts to another horse.

Millionreasonswhy is the second choice, at 2-1 and should be a major stretch threat to the favorite. In her last race, Millionreasonswhy stalked an honest pace and easily won the at seven furlongs at Laurel in 1:24. The recent workouts have been impressive, and the added furlong should be beneficial.

Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount on Welcome Guest, who is trained by Chad Brown. This is just the third career start for this filly, but she really improved in her last start and could be a major player in this race. At 8-1, she must be added to all exotic wagering.

Broadway's Alibi is not only the "best" horse at the moment but with no other early speed, she shouldn't be pushed early. If Singlet or Off Limits changes tactics from stalking to pace setter, that could obviously change the race dramatically.

In the end, I think Welcome Guest can win this race, especially the way she finished in her last race, where she won by over five lengths in 1:29.1. She's losing four pounds and has a 373 Beyer rating for one mile. Of course, Broadway's Alibi will be very tough to beat, and Millionreasonswhy will be coming late.

I'm going to pick the major upset and take Welcome Guest over the two favorites in 1:35.3.