Masters Odds 2012: Latest Predictions for Top 50 Players in PGA Classic

Michael DixonAnalyst IIIMarch 31, 2012

Masters Odds 2012: Latest Predictions for Top 50 Players in PGA Classic

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    More often than not, the Masters is won by a name you're familiar with. Sure, every now and again, you'll get a surprising name, but this is generally a tournament reserved for the big names, at least when it comes to putting on the Green Jacket. 

    The field isn't set just yet, but the Top 50 players in the world are all in. So, let's take a look at what the official odds are saying about those players already in the field.

     

    Official odds courtesy of Bovada.lv. 

    World Rankings found at Officialworldgolfranking.com

     

     

1. Luke Donald

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    Official Odds: 14/1

    Dixon's Take: This would be a bad bet. You can win at Augusta with a long drive or an accurate one. Donald doesn't have either, which is going to give him a hard time finding the right angles to attack. 

    Donald is a good player, but the back nine on Sunday usually features a lot of birdies, and Donald just doesn't have the overall firepower to compete down the stretch. If he wins a major, it will be at a tournament that's won with a score of about even par. 

2. Rory McIlroy

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    Official Odds: 9/2 

    Dixon's Take: McIlroy is officially listed as the second favorite, and I have no problem with that. He clearly has the game to play well at Augusta, as McIlroy dominated 54 holes of the tournament last year. 

    We'll have to see what happens coming down the stretch this year if he's in contention, although judging by the U.S. Open, McIlroy will do fine. Obviously, 9/2 doesn't give much of a payout, so I wouldn't call this a great value bet, but he's on a very short list of realistic winners. 

3. Lee Westwood

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    Official Odds: 14/1

    Dixon's Take: It's not that Westwood doesn't have the game to win the Masters, but he's got too much baggage at majors for this to be a good bet. Westwood has had countless chances to win a major and every time he's fallen short. 

    With a better payoff, this would be a bet worth taking. But right now, this is one to avoid. Get more bang for the buck.

4. Martin Kaymer

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    Official Odds: 50/1

    Dixon's Take: For whatever reason, this course and Kaymer just don't see eye to eye. There's really nothing that suggests he should struggle here, but Kaymer has never even made a cut, let alone contended. 

    Anyone who plays golf at any level knows some courses work better than others for different people. Augusta doesn't work for Kaymer, so even with a seemingly great payoff for the world ranking, avoid this one. 

5. Steve Stricker

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    Official Odds: 50/1

    Dixon's Take: This is a slightly better bet than Kaymer, but not much better. Stricker has two top-10 finishes to his name, but does have a tough game for this course. Yes, he can putt extremely well, but the fact is that Stricker will be hitting long irons into most holes, while others will be attacking with low irons, or even wedges. 

    It's hard enough to hold greens at Augusta. When the ball is coming in low, that task gets even tougher. The bet gives you a great payoff, but the chances of him winning just aren't that great. 

6. Tiger Woods

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    Official Odds: 7/2

    Dixon's Take: According to the official odds, you're not going to find a more likely winner than this man. Similar to McIlroy, the payoff is just not that good, so you have to weigh the probability of a win against overall value. 

    Winning at Bay Hill last week no doubt gave Woods a great deal of confidence and put the taste of winning back in his mouth. He has a fantastic history at Augusta, so this is a completely deserving slot. 

7. Charl Schwartzel

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    Official Odds: 28/1

    Dixon's Take: On the one hand, people just don't win consecutive Masters that often. It has happened three times in the history of the tournament (Jack Nicklaus in 1965 and 1966. Nick Faldo in 1989 and 1998. Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002) and every one of those times, the player winning was the best in the world, Schwartzel is not that. 

    On the other hand, 28/1 is a great number. It all depends on if you're going to bet, and how you're going to do so. If you bet on four or five guys, he should be included. 

8. Justin Rose

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    Official Odds: 33/1

    Dixon's Take: Rose has had a decent history at this course, although he's had some bad performances as well. He's not a Tiger Woods type who you can basically lock in to a top five, but he has a few great showings. 

    On balance, I put Rose in the top 10 of great bets. I don't believe he'll win the tournament, but 33/1 is a nice payoff. It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see him come away with the Green Jacket. 

9. Webb Simpson

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    Official Odds: 50/1

    Dixon's Take: The game is there to win this tournament, but Simpson has never played the Masters before and that's usually not a recipe for great success. 

    As far as taking this bet, it's a good payoff even with a small wager, so it's not a terrible idea. Just keep in mind that Jason Day's performance last year was very uncommon. Still, he didn't win, which is what needs to happen for a payoff. 

10. Adam Scott

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    Official Odds: 30/1 

    Dixon's Take: Something that can be said about nearly everyone from here on out is that the number is good enough to at least think about. But Scott at 30/1 is an absolute steal. 

    He finished tied for second a year ago, has been playing strong golf for the better part of the last year and has the game to succeed on this course. He's not my pick to win, but this is one of the best bets in the field. 

11. Jason Day

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    Official Odds: 40/1

    Dixon's Take: I am not exactly sure where these come from. Day is one of the more talented golfers in the world and had a stellar performance at this course a year ago. Like Scott, this is one of the better bets you'll find this week. 

12: Dustin Johnson

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    Official Odds: 40/1

    Dixon's Take: Johnson's not unlike Kaymer. He has made cuts at Augusta but despite having a game that would seem to set up well for the course, he's never done anything particularly noteworthy at the Masters. 

    Johnson has also had issues closing the deal at majors. Without any imagination at all, he could have about two or three to his name right now but instead has none. Even with a pretty good payoff, I wouldn't go with him here. 

13. Graeme McDowell

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    Official Odds: 50/1

    Dixon's Take: This looks like a decent bet, but McDowell has not been the same golfer since his 2010 season. Maybe it's a bit of a hangover that McDowell will recover from, but this is not a bet worth taking until he shows a little more consistency, even in regular events. 

14. Hunter Mahan

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    Official Odds: 50/1

    Dixon's Take: Well, this is my pick to win, so that should tell you everything you need to know. At 50/1, I love this bet.

    Mahan's distance will never be a problem at Augusta and he's been one of the best ball strikers in the world for a number of years. This year, we're seeing more consistency on and around the greens, which is why he won the matchplay. Really, there's nothing to not like here. 

15. Phil Mickelson

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    Official Odds: 10/1

    Dixon's Take: Mickelson will always be a favorite at Augusta. Unfortunately, at this point I don't see 10/1 being a particularly strong bet. That's not to say that he can't win. But even if he does, the payoff isn't going to be that great unless you put up a big bet. You have to think overall quality here, and this bet doesn't offer that. 

16. Bill Haas

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    Official Odds: 66/1 

    Dixon's Take: This one doesn't excite me all that much. He's never really contended seriously at the Masters, although he is two for two in cuts made. Actually, Haas has never been in real contention at any major. I know that the bet looks nice for the FedEx Cup champion, but I am having a hard time imagining it paying off. 

17. Matt Kuchar

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    Official Odds: 66/1 

    Dixon's Take: While Kuchar's been on the scene for a long time, the history at Augusta is kind of bare. He does have consecutive top 30 performances, but has never been in the top 20. 

    Kuchar is not a long hitter of the ball, which means he'll have to rely a lot on a hot putter. That can work for one day, but not four. 

18. Bubba Watson

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    Official Odds: 40/1

    Dixon's Take: The problem with Bubba is he plays a massive cut, and your hitting area tends to be a little thin at Augusta. That's going to put him in position to rely on shots that aren't his bread and butter, and that's not going to hold up for four days. 

19. Nick Watney

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    Official Odds: 40/1

    Dixon's Take: Watney is not a pick of mine to win, but this is not a bad bet by any means. I am not going with him because the last year or so has not been particularly strong. Still, his decent history at Augusta makes this a bet worth looking at. 

20: Keegan Bradley

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    Official Odds: 40/1

    Dixon's Take: Take a picture of the world rankings because he won't be as low as 20 again for a long time. He is fast rising and has the tools (physical and mental) to be around for a while. 

    The problem here is that people don't often win consecutive majors. It is hard enough to win two period, let alone in a row. Still, at 40/1, you have the potential to get a great return on your investment on a golfer who is one of the best in the world. 

21. Sergio Garcia

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    Official Odds: 40/1

    Dixon's Take: Garcia looks to have a new attitude, but I need to see it before getting too excited about him, even at 40/1. When you're coming down the stretch of a major, something is going to go wrong, it's inevitable. I want to see how Garcia handles that before I ever consider placing a bet on him. 

22. Brandt Snedeker

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: By all appearances, this is one of the nicer guys on tour, so it would be a great story. Although Snedeker has a win this year, I don't get the overall consistency from him that you want to see in a major. Still, when you think that a $20 bet will get you $1,600, there isn't a lot to lose, especially when considering he has a top five finish in the past (2008).

23. K.J. Choi

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    Official Odds: 66/1 

    Dixon's Take: Choi really is a consistent fixture down the stretch at the Masters, with two top 10 finishes in the last two years. The number is great, I just am not sure I like his chances of making the birdies down the stretch. If it's a tougher Masters than normal, his odds are good. If not, he will get outgunned. 

24. Ian Poulter

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: I like the number and attitude a lot, but Poulter doesn't have a great history at the Masters. Yes, he has two top 10's, but no top fives. Ultimately, I don't see him making the birdies down the stretch needed to win the Masters. 

25. Peter Hanson

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: Don't take the bait here. Hanson has never made the cut at the Masters and this is a venue where previous means an awful lot. This would be a genuine surprise. 

26. Mark Wilson

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: The odds are set this high for a reason. Wilson has played in the tournament once and missed the cut. As a matter of fact, he's only made a cut in two majors. This would be a genuinely surprising win. 

27. Bo Van Pelt

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    Official Odds: 100/1

    Dixon's Take: The history here is actually pretty good, with an eighth place tie coming a year ago. There are certainly bigger names and I would be lying if I said that I saw Van Pelt winning this thing. Still, when you consider that a $10 bet pays $1,000 dollars, it's worth a second thought. 

28. Bae Sang-Moon

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    Official Odds: 150/1

    Dixon's Take: The future is pretty bright here, but this would be a real surprise. He has never played in the Masters and never won on tour. A win here would be one of the bigger upsets in the history of the game. The odds are good, but the chances of an actual win are slim to none. 

29. John Senden

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    Official Odds: 150/1  

    Dixon's Take: Never made the cut at the Masters with one career win, coming more than five years ago. The temptation is there because of the bet but as is the case with most people in this territory, they're here for a reason. 

30. Thomas Bjorn

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: Bjorn is certainly on the back end of his career and the story would be similar to Darren Clarke last year, but you have to have a real hunch here. The last time Bjorn even played the Masters was 2007, the last time he made the cut was the year before. 

31. Jason Dufner

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: Given how close he was at the PGA Championship last year, there may not be a better pick at over 100/1, but it would be a surprise. He has only played in one Masters and I didn't like what i saw down the stretch at the PGA last year. If you're betting a lot of names, this isn't a bad guy to go with. Still, this is nothing more than a top 15 pick in terms of overall bet quality. 

32. Paul Casey

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: This is a top 10 overall bet here. It wasn't that long ago Casey was one of the best players in the world. He has an immense amount of talent and while his world ranking doesn't reflect it, I still have Casey in my top 10. 

33. Alvaro Quiros

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    Official Odds: 100/1

    Dixon's Take: The long ball makes him incredibly tempting, but Quiros has not enjoyed a tremendous amount of success in the United States. Overall, I don't hate this bet because I know he'll be attacking every flag with short irons or wedges, but I don't quite trust the overall game to significantly disagree with the odds. 

34. Martin Laird

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: I really can't believe he's this long of a shot. Laird has only played in one Masters, but finished in the top 20. He will be moving up the rankings for a long time. Despite the odds, it would not be shocking to see him win this one. 

35. David Toms

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: The problem with Toms is he's going to have to rely too much on making extremely long putts. Again, that's not a bad strategy at some of the majors with tougher scores, but it's not going to work at Augusta for four days. 

36. Simon Dyson

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    Dixon's Take: 150/1

    Official Odds: He's never made a cut at Augusta, which tells me the long odds are on the money. I like Dyson's game, but not at this course, even with a great payoff. 

37. Robert Karlsson

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: Karlsson has a lot of talent, but is not terribly consistent, which explains the world ranking. Still, I can't exactly say this would be the worst of bets, or that it would be a surprise to see him win. 

38. Louis Oosthuizen

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    Official Odds: 100/1

    Dixon's Take: Other than his win at the British Open in 2010, Oosthuizen has made two cuts at a major and neither were the Masters. I know he can close the deal at a major, but I don't see his game being quite there to win the Masters. On balance, there are better long shot bets. 

39. Aaron Baddeley

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    Official Odds: 100/1

    Dixon's Take: This is about right. There are certainly better names in this range. Baddeley has never finished in the top 10 at a major. It takes four good rounds to win the Masters, and I don't see him having that kind of firepower. You have to be several under par to win this one in most years, and that's just a tough thing for him to do, as long approach shots limit birdies in a big way. 

40. Anders Hanson

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    Official Odds: 175/1

    Dixon's Take: He hasn't made a cut at the Masters, has never won in the United States and hasn't won anywhere in more than three years. The only thing really appealing here is the big payoff, but the chances of that happening are just not good enough, even for a small bet. 

41. Rickie Fowler

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: There's potential here, but the fact is he's never won on tour and there have been opportunities. Fowler has an incredibly bright future and I wouldn't get used to seeing him this low in the rankings, but breaking through at the Masters isn't going to happen. 

42. K.T. Kim

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    Official Odds: 150/1

    Dixon's Take: Kim is really turning himself into a strong international player, winning four times in Japan since May 2010. In his first Masters last year, he made the cut, which demonstrates at least some comfort at the venue. When you start doing the math on a payout, this is not a bad one to go with, although it would be pretty surprising to see a win. 

43. Francesco Molinari

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: If this was a bet for a good finish, I would like it. But the fact is Molinari only has two career wins with only one career top 10 in a major. It wouldn't be surprising to see him down the stretch, but a win would be surprising. 

44. Fredrik Jacobson

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    Official Odds: 150/1

    Dixon's Take: The history in any major is not particularly appealing here. Jacobson is a journeyman player and that's not what wins at the Masters. He's only made one cut at Augusta, eight years ago. A win would be a genuine shocker. 

45. Zach Johnson

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    Official Odds: 100/1

    Dixon's Take: As you can see, he's got one of those pretty green jackets, but the rest of his Augusta history is less than stellar. The fact is the weather in Augusta that week was unseasonably cold and led to some scores which were much higher than usual. Unless that happens again, this is not a good bet. 

46. Paul Lawrie

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    Official Odds: 200/1

    Dixon's Take: If this was a British Open, I would be all over this bet. But the fact remains Lawrie has never so much as played a weekend at the Masters. You have to be really optimistic to think he'll turn that history into a win this year. 

47. Geoff Ogilvy

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: I would be lying if I said this one didn't intrigue me an awful lot. Ogilvy has made a cut every time he's teed it up at the Masters and is coming off a fourth place finish a season ago. I am surprised to see him this far down the list because Ogilvy is a top 20 threat here. This is a good flyer bet. 

48. Kyle Stanley

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: While I will always be impressed by the resiliency that he showed earlier in the year, Stanley has never even played at Augusta. Still, he has the game to play there, so a good finish wouldn't shock me. A win would. I would like this bet a lot more if we were talking about 2013, after he's had a chance to get his feet wet. 

49. Ben Crane

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    Official Odds: 125/1

    Dixon's Take: This is another example of a guy who just doesn't seem to get along well with the course, as he's made one cut here. On top of that, Crane has one top 10 in all of his majors. It would be a real surprise to see him be much of a factor, let alone win. 

50. Jim Furyk

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    Official Odds: 80/1

    Dixon's Take: The numbers aren't bad, but Furyk's best days are behind him. He's going to have to be pretty perfect on the approaches and not miss any putts that he should make, so this is not a good bet. His accuracy will play well at the U.S. Open at The Olympic Club, but I don't see Augusta being a win.