Fantasy Baseball BABIP Wonders: 5 Guys That Could Regress

Ryan LesterSenior Writer IMarch 28, 2012

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 13:  Alex Avila #13 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with Ramon Santiago #39 after hitting a solo home run in the third inning of Game Five of the American League Championship Series against the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park on October 13, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images

It’s not uncommon for fast players to have high BABIP (batting average on balls in play). With their speed they are able to beat out throws. This is a group of players that had high BABIPs last year in relation to their speed. Baseball is a game of averages, which could lead to regression this year.

Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers 

In 2010, Avila had a .278 BABIP, which led to a .228 batting average. Last year, he was at .366 and .295. So which one is he? I think his BABIP will fall somewhere in the middle (.320-ish), but his average will be around .275. Still, pretty solid for a catcher, but don’t expect last year’s production.

Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals 

Gordon finally met his expectations last year posting a .303-101-23-87-17 line. I’m not saying he can’t put up another outstanding season, but his .358 BABIP last year concerns me a little.

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves 

Freddie had a .339 BABIP, which led to a .282 batting average. He started (.236) and ended (.254) the year on sour BABIP notes. Those were the two months with his lowest strikeout rates. I anticipate improvement on his overall 22.4 percent strikeout rate, which will lead to a lower BABIP, and either a flat or a slight decrease in his average.

LAKE BUENA VISTA, FL - MARCH 18:  Shortstop Manny Machado #85 of the Baltimore Orioles takes the throw as infielder Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves slides into second base safely during a Grapefruit League Spring Training Game at Champion Stadium
J. Meric/Getty Images

Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers 

Peralta’s .325 BABIP was his highest since 2007. With it came a career-high .299 batting average. Not only is he a regression risk because of his BABIP, but as a lifetime .268 hitter, it would not be a stretch to think that average declines. That said, he should still be a solid HR and RBI source.

Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals 

In 2009, his BABIP was .296. In 2010, it was .282. Last year, at .315, it was his highest since 2008. At 36, it would not be unimaginable for his BABIP and batting average to drop off from the respective .315 and .301 numbers he reached last year. Especially when you consider Albert Pujols’ departure.

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