Tim Tebow Rumors: Why Trade Talk is Much Ado About Nothing

Vincent FrankCorrespondent IMarch 13, 2012

FOXBORO, MA - JANUARY 14:  Tim Tebow #15 of the Denver Broncos looks on against the New England Patriots during their AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Gillette Stadium on January 14, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Over the weekend I wrote an article that suggested the rumors surrounding Tim Tebow being traded held no substance. This article is going to explain exactly why they can pretty much be put to rest.

The funny thing about a hypothesis is that one dependent variable needs to be true in order for the other to even be considered true. If the Denver Broncos are unable to sign Peyton Manning, this entire Tim Tebow speculation will fall on its face. In short, the Broncos are not going to trade Tebow if they are unable to land Manning. One variable pretty much ending any possibility that the other one is going to come true.

We should find out about about this situation in short order, but that is not going to preclude experts and pundits from drawing their own conclusions.

Pro Football Talk reports that the Broncos will trade Tebow if they are able to acquire Manning. This shouldn't come as a surprise to many of you, considering these reports came out over the weekend.

What has changed?

The Miami Dolphins met with Manning for six hours on Monday, pretty much ending any idea that only two teams were involved in the sweepstakes. Miami was considered to be the most likely destination for Manning prior to the start of his multiple-city tour.

And then you have the fact that Bud Adams has made it pretty clear he wants the Tennessee Titans to sign Manning.

"He is the man I want. Period," Adams said Sunday. "And the people that work for me understand that. They know who I want. I want Mr. Manning with the Titans and I will be disappointed if it doesn't happen."

What was considered a two team race just 48 hours ago has dwarfed into a four-team race to sign Manning.


What does this mean for Tebow and the Broncos?

This lowers the likelihood that the Broncos are going to be able to land Manning. You know have four teams, possibly more, vying for his services.

We can work under the presupposition that Denver will not go after another marginal starting quarterback if it is unable to land Manning. This means it will be "stuck" with Tebow—at least that's the terminology you can expect the Broncos front office to be using internally at this point.

Of course, Denver could go out there and draft a quarterback in the first or second round. With that said, I doubt any draft options outside of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III would be considered upgrades over Tebow.


The Jacksonville Jaguars factor

NASHVILLE, TN - CIRCA 2011: In this handout image provided by the NFL, K.S. 'Bud' Adams, Jr., owner of the Tennessee Titans poses for his NFL headshot circa 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by NFL via Getty Images)
Handout/Getty Images

There is a major difference between the Jaguars owner saying he would have drafted Tebow in 2009 and actually making a play for the unconventional quarterback. They already invested a high draft pick in Blaine Gabbert, whom Shahid Khan has indicated is the Jaguars' "franchise" quarterback.

They also hired Mike Mularkey as the teams head coach after he groomed Matt Ryan in Atlanta with the Falcons. It isn't just a coincidence that Jacksonville currently has a young signal-caller.


The market factor

Not to undervalue what Tebow has done in Denver, but I am not sure he has high value on the trade market right now. In reality, you are probably looking at the Broncos getting a mid-round pick for him if they do sign Manning.

What would be the point in that?

Sure, a team like the San Francisco 49ers or New York Jets might throw a fifth-round pick the Broncos' way. In fact, this makes some sense. However, I cannot imagine the Broncos being too enthralled with such an offer.

Even if John Elway doesn't believe Tebow is the long-term solution at quarterback, he isn't going to throw away a first-round draft pick from two years ago for a marginal drat pick in 2012.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 07:  Peyton Manning attends a press conference announcing Manning's release from the Colts at Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center on March 7, 2012 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Joey Foley/Getty Images)
Joey Foley/Getty Images

That isn't going to happen.



Most NFL rumors can be taken with a grain of salt, while others hold substance. It just depends on the specific situation as it relates to what is happening in the market. These particular rumors surrounding Tebow make absolutely no sense to me.

Instead, it should be noted that one variable needs to be come true in order for the other to be considered. At this point there doesn't seem to be substance to either variable here.

Come back to me when Manning signs with the Broncos and then we will talk.


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