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A Michigan victory over North Carolina would be a massive upset! But its possibility seems ever more likely when you consider the circumstances.
North Carolina is reeling from injury. In particular, the Tar Heels will struggle without a healthy Jon Henson, their elite power forward and defensive anchor. North Carolina also still misses Dexter Strickland.
Without Henson, the Tar Heels will find it more difficult to crush Michigan on the boards. More important, talented North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall is a traffic cone on defense, which means that Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. will be nearly unstoppable without Henson manning the paint at full strength.
To be clear, this is not suggesting a Tar Heels victory would be surprising. North Carolina is very talented and could absolutely defeat Michigan and make the elite eight. But, considering their injuries and fatigue, Michigan has a surprisingly good chance to make an Elite Eight run.