You Should Have No Fear of Drafting:
Zack Greinke (MIL): With 16 wins and a strikeout-ratio of 1.18/1 in just 171 innings—Zach Greinke will be available as a low end #1 pitcher, but will perform like he is high end.
He did miss some time due to injury in 2011, but 2012 should not show any symptoms of the injury. Greinke will most likely produce at minimum 15 wins and 200 strikeouts.
Great for a late 4th round pick according to his ADP of 47.
Matt Cain (SF): Pitching in the NL west is always a good thing.
Matt Cain will join a good pitching staff and put up very respectable numbers. The 2012 season should bring Cain 15 wins, 215 IP, 175 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.10.
His ADP of 60 is a steal in the draft pick when Matthew Berry has him as the 13th ranked pitcher.
Adam Wainwright (STL): We have learned something about Tommy John surgery—it works. With that being said, Adam Wainwright has top-10 pitcher talent, and is being projected to be drafted in the middle rounds at 102 overall.
St. Louis may limit his innings a bit, but the risk is well worth the reward in the middle rounds.
I expect a lot out of Wainwright—180 IP, 160 strikeouts, 14 wins and an ERA of 3.15.
You Should Avoid Drafting:
Stephen Strasburg (WSH): Washington will be looking ahead to 2013 when it comes to Strasburg.
I do not expect more than 160 innings pitched, which will hurt his strike out totals.
Next year, he may be a top pick. This year, he is a very large at risk draftee.
I expect around 140strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA.
Johnny Cueto (CIN): For three years straight, Cueto has seen his strikeouts dip.
In 2011, he managed to improve his ERA by 1.33, but I see this as a fluke of a season. I expect regression across the board for Cueto—175 IP, 125 strikeouts, 11 wins and an ERA of 4.00.
Matt Garza (CHC): Garza seems to find himself on sleeper lists every year. But never panning out.
The strikeout-ratio will be fine at about 8/1, but the wins and ERA will regress yet again. I expect about 10 wins and an ERA of 3.65.