Remaining Games: 15
Remaining Home Games: 7
Games Against Top Eight: 6
Should-Win Games: NYI-Home, CAR-Home, BUF-Home, TBL-Home, MON-Away
While Toronto isn't much better at home than on the road, they are still better at home.
A win against the last-place Canadiens is also pretty good bet.
Must-Win Games: WAS-Away, FLA-Away, TBL-Away, BUF-Away
Washington has bested the Maple Leafs in the last two games, but with Ovechkin not playing up to his potential lately, the Maple Leafs do have a chance.
Florida, the third-ranked team in the Eastern Conference, does not have the skills to live up to their ranking. Reaping the benefits of a weak division, the Panthers are a less intimidating team than they are made out to be.
Toss-Up Games: PHI-Home (2), NYR-Home, OTT-Away, BOS-Away, NJD-Away
For an eighth-place team and final playoff spot, the eighth-place team has averaged about 90 points on the season for the last five years.
That means the Maple Leafs are going to have to win all their must-win and should-win games—including a couple of toss-up games—against the top teams in the league.
With the way the Maple Leafs have been playing of late, that seems impossible. But if by some miracle the coaching change and the goalie situation start to click, they might just make it.
Odds: 10 percent