I know that early polls are the problem with rankings when the end of the season rolls around because it creates an expectation of teams that leads to voting biases, but since they are done anyway I'm going to submit my early 2009 poll.
Obviously, not everyone has declared yet so I'll probably update once the declaration date for the NFL has passed.
So here we go; the 2009 Top 25 are:
1. Florida
With Tim Tebow most likely coming back, who doesn't like the Gators? 19 of the Gators' 22 starters are eligible to come back, but Harvin and Spikes are expected to leave early. Still with all of the talent left the Gators will be huge Vegas favorites to repeat in 2009, as long as Superman returns that is.
2. USC
The Trojans got to enjoy having one of the greatest defenses of all time this year, and at least nine of those players will be gone for 2009, but we all know that USC simply reloads talent, especially on defense.
If Mark Sanchez returns for his senior campaign, the men of Troy will have 10 returning starters on offense, including one of the best receivers in Damian Williams, and one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country in Joe McKnight.
If USC can get motivated to play every game this year (and they will have to because they have a murderous schedule in 2009),, then they will find themselves with the chance to hoist the crystal ball.
3. Texas
Texas was a big time overachiever this year. The experience they gained from being the hunted in 2008 will serve this team well in 2009. Colt McCoy says he is returning to the team in 2009, and back for a sixth year will be his best friend and go-to guy Jordan Shipley.
The defensive line is suffering the most losses for the Longhorns with three starters gone for 2009, but that is a position they were deep at for 2008, and their production shouldn't drop off much.
The young Texas secondary looks to be a strength for the Longhorns in 2009, with the youngsters gaining a lot of valuable experience in 2008. A Big 12 title should be in the picture for the Longhorns.
4. LSU
After a down year for the Tigers, I believe they will rebound nicely in 2009. The defense looked outstanding against a Georgia Tech that tore apart fellow SEC member Georgia. Also, it looks as though the quarterback position has come into focus for the Tigers and shouldn't be a weakness for them in 2009.
LSU could throw some interesting looks next year with both Jefferson and incoming freshman Russell Shepard in the backfield at the same time. I look for LSU to claim the SEC West title next year.
5. Oklahoma
The last two games of the season were very strong showings for this Sooners defense that will return nine starters next year. If Bradford decides to jet for the NFL, the Sooners will likely have to rely on this defense to be their strong point, and then rely on a strong running game from DeMarco Murray. If Bradford returns, then we will once again see a three horse race for the Big 12 South.
6. Ole Miss
I like what the Rebels were able to do at the end of the year last year. They will have 17 starters returning from that surprise team in 2008 including standout QB Jevan Snead, and all-purpose man Dexter McCluster. The Rebels will challenge for the SEC West crown.
7. Virginia Tech
QB Tyrod Taylor has shown that he is a big time playmaker from the quarterback position. Taylor had expected to spend the '08 season as a redshirt, but due to the lack of production from Sean Glennon, Taylor was thrust into the starter's role and brought home an Orange Bowl victory for the Hokies.
Along with Taylor the offense will return nine starters, and a host of young talent on defense that saw valuable time in 2008. Virginia Tech should bring home the ACC title once again, and will find themselves in the BCS title hunt.
8. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys will be returning nine starters on offense including three dynamic talents in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, and arguably the receiver in the country Dez Bryant. It is possible with Texas having to travel to Stillwater that we could see yet another three -way tie in the Big 12 South in 2009, as the Cowboys will be strong contenders in that division yet again.
9. Oregon
The Ducks finished 2008 very strong and have a lot to build on, especially with their offense, for 2009. The return of Mike Belloti would help greatly as well, and having USC come to Eugene is a definite plus since USC has struggled in the state of Oregon for the past few years.
10. Ohio State
At this point my job is really getting tough. I don't know if the Buckeyes will be top ten caliber next season, but I'm having a hard time finding anyone else I believe will be. The loss of Beanie Wells will hurt the Buckeyes greatly as will the loss of Laurinaitas and Jenkins on defense.
The play making ability of Pryor may be enough to keep the Buckeyes atop the Big Ten next year, especially if he can learn to be a better passer, and not to run out of bounds so early when he runs. The Big Ten should be wide open with no real great team, but hopefully one will emerge.
11. Alabama
I'm not as sold on the upside of the Tide for 2009 like so many people are. I think they benefited from sneaking up on people early, and then playing a bit of a soft schedule until the SEC title game. The success of the team may depend on the return of DT Terrence Cody. I for one expect him to leave, but we have to wait and see.
Also, of detriment besides losing their experienced signal caller is the loss of their two best offensive linemen. We already saw what happened to the Bama line when Smith was out of the Sugar Bowl. Luckily, Alabama will have an athletic QB next year because I suspect he will be running for his life quite a bit.
When, whoever the QB is for Alabama next year actually gets time to throw, he will have a huge benefit of throwing to Julio Jones. I suspect Bama will finish third or fourth in the West next year, which may be the toughest division in college football for 2009.
12. Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets showed the world that the old triple option play isn't dead yet, and with all their top playmakers back for 2009, the Jackets should be able to build upon their success from 2008.
13. Iowa
2009 will let us see just how valuable Shonn Greene was to the success of the Hawkeyes. Despite his loss, they will be returning eight starters on offense and seven of defense. It's amazing how in one season Kirk Ferentz went from hot seat to hot commodity. We'll see if he can stay hot in '09.
14. Nebraska
A team that flew under the radar for the entire 2008 season and somehow managed not to finish the season in the top 25, Nebraska will be one of the leading contenders for the Big 12 North title. Perhaps lost in all the other Big 12 stories of 2008 was the excellent coaching job of Bo Pelini. He took a team from 5-7 to 9-4 and a Gator Bowl victory. The biggest challenge is going to be replacing Gator Bowl MVP Joe Ganz.
15. North Carolina
Butch Davis is working his magic yet again. He is turning the Tar Heels back into a successful team; the Heels had been terrible since the departure of Mack Brown. This is definitely a team that is a sleeper to win the ACC title. The loss of Hakeem Nicks will loom large, but the Tar Heels still have a lot of talent returning for Davis in 2009.
16. Florida State
The Seminoles will have quite a bit of experience returning on offense including quarterback Christian Ponder. However, Mickey Andrews will have his work cut out for him with his defense especially in the secondary. If the defense is adequate the Seminoles may be in the hunt for a Coastal Division title.
17. Kansas
2008 may have seemed like a down year for the Jayhawks after 2007, but they ended very strong with a win over Missouri and then the most dominating performance by a Big 12 team in a bowl game.
Highlighting the returners for 2009 will be QB Todd Reesing and WR Dezmon Briscoe. This could be one of the best pass catch tandems in the country for 2009. If the Jayhawks are going to contend with Nebraska in the North, though they need to find a way to get it done on the ground.
18. Penn State
Penn State looks to have a good shot at repeating as Big 10 champs in 2009 with the return of QB Darryl Clark and RB Evan Royster, but in the end they may just be losing too much, and have too many holes to fill. Joe Pa will certainly have his work cut out for him in 2009.
19. California
Jahvid Best will be the key to the success of the Bears in 2009. Whenever Best goes, so will the Golden Bears of Cal. I would look for Cal in the Holiday Bowl.
20. Miami
The Hurricanes had a wealth of underclassmen play in 2008, and at times they played very well. They ended on a down note in '08, but that can be expected of young players.
I expect Miami to compete in 2009 and surprise a few folks. I think I'm starting to see the ACC rising back up.
21. Utah
The Utes will have a lot of holes to fill, but you can't completely discount the success that they had as a one-year wonder. They have built a quality program out there, and I expect to see them finish strong in 2009.
22. TCU
Always keyed by their defense the Horned Frogs will need to replace seven starters on that side of the ball, but will have DE Jerry Hughes returning. Like Utah, Gary Patterson always has a quality, perennial top 25 team.
23. Vanderbilt
I hate myself for this one, but they do return 18 starters from a team that won their bowl against ACC runner-up Boston College. The Commodores also finally found a solid quarterback that could take them to places they have never seen in Larry Smith. Well maybe not, but another bowl game isn't out of the question.
24. Boise State
Benefiting from playing in the WAC, Boise will yet again look strong. Their only blemish will be against Oregon, but Kellen Moore looks to be every bit as good as advertised.
25a. Minnesota
They ended very poorly in 2008, but they still return 19 starters, and do play in a weak conference. Eight to nine wins may not be out of the question for the Gophers in 2009.
25b. Arkansas
Arkansas is my sleeper for the 2009 season. I like Ryan Mallet as the quarter back for Bobby Petrino's system. I like all of the returning players that the Hogs will have for the 2009 season. So many underclassmen saw time last year, and you could visibly see them grow every game.
The Hogs will surprise many next year, and if they get some good breaks could finish in the top 15. Of course, with their schedule being so tough they could play really well and still not make a bowl. I think they will be in between those two scenarios and finish 8-5.
Well that's my "way too early" 2009 top 25. I did not really include SOS in my rankings, but went off of who I thought had the talent to be in these positions.
I always appreciate any feedback, and love to debate the merits of teams if you disagree with me.
69 comments Last one added 5 days ago — Leave a Comment
Franklin Crittenden 6 months ago
You would think that after the Big 12 stunk it up so bad in the post season a Texas fan wouldn't have the guts to place 5 Big 12 teams in his Top 20, 3 in his Top 10, and 2 in his Top 5 but there they are for all to see.
I think the Big 12 fooled the experts this year with all the points they scored, but next year they will be wise to the fact it not great the offenses, it was just the terrible defenses in the Big 12.
Of the 3 top Big 12 teams they only averaged 24 points in the post season and went a pitiful 1-3.
Other that the last minute miracle at home against #11 and highly overrated Ohio State the Little 1 completely screwed the pooch.
Here is my Top 10
(1) Florida
(2) USC
(3) Oklahoma
(4) Alabama
(5) Ol' Miss
(6) Texas
(7) Virginia Tech
(8) North Carolina
(9) Ohio State
(10) Florida State
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James Colt 6 months ago
I've never been a big proponent of using bowl games as a gauge for an entire season. A bowl game doesn't show how a team played the entire season. If they were actually played directly following the regular season that would be one thing, but to wait 40 days and then play well that is pretty much the start of another season. I didn't realize that 5 teams in the top 20 shows that I have a bias. I gave the SEC a lot of love and said that the SEC West is going to be the toughest division in football. I even ranked Vanderbilt. I don't know what I was thinking on that one. However, with LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas I think the SEC West is going to be murderer's row. I can't believe you like OU that much. Once Bradford declares I'm dropping them to probably somewhere between 20 and 25.
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Rhett Sholtz 21 days ago
u clearly dont no what u are talking about dip shit putting a team life virgina tech in top 10 is like saying the washington Nationals are going to the world seris nebraska all ready beat them so just shut ur mouth a the big 12 best confrence look at the top 10 preseason draft picks only 1 is not from the big 12 and hes from usc so suck cock u little bitch
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Johnathon Gustin 6 months ago
I'm sorry but Minnesota really isn't top 25 material. They lost games they should have won and don't have the recruiting ability that Michigan State or any of the other upper big ten schools have.
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James Colt 6 months ago
I struggled with the Minnesota one, but they return so many starters from that team that I feel the experience will help them. Also, playing in the Big 10 doesn't hurt this prediction either, but I will definitely re-analyze when I rework the ranking after the NFL declaration day.
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shaefeto tc 5 months ago
Totally on board with this thought. Yes, the Gophers return 19 starters, but of what quality? Returning 19 starters of sub-average skill sets doesn't garner a high ranking. Other schools are definitely in much better shape. Take Northwestern as an example, with Fitzgerald going 9-4 in his third season, and a well played Alamo Bowl, showing year over year improvement, with a team that won games this year that is relatively young. Good young players that won games, coming back next year. That's the difference. Michigan State is moving in the right direction as well, with others like Wisconsin and Michigan moving down. Iowa without Greene is a different team altogether.
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Daniel Lewis 6 months ago
With PSU's easy schedule next year and OSU at home I think even if they are not deserving another national title run is possible if they can go undefeated, which seems possible.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Thanks for the read. Yeah PSU could definitely put a run together, especially because when I look at the Big Ten I think they have to be down from this past year with all the talent leaving. In the end it's going to come down to whether or not PSU can replace the play makers that they are losing, and also for OSU whether Pryor can be a more effective passer or not. I know people talk about the drops by the OSU receivers in the Fiesta Bowl, but he had quite a few passes that were just down right awful. The PSU-OSU game being in Happy Valley is definitely an advantage for PSU. Thanks for the comment.
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Juan Carlos Reyes 6 months ago
LSU and Ole Miss in the top-10? Gotta bow down to you on those bold predictions.
I might see both starting in the top-15, but not No. 4 and No. 6.
I think Utah and TCU might start higher and it's quite possible that the Mountain West is about to be a major threat in college football.
Gotta give you a high-five by putting in your top-25 instead of 5 like mine.
Good stuff James.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Thanks for reading and replying. Yeah I gave the SEC some love, but those two earned it with their bowl wins I think. TCU lost a lot on defense which was by far their strong suit, and how they won games. Utah losing their QB is big. People tend to downplay the loss of a QB, but it is often a big time loss. That is one of the reasons LSU struggled this year was because of the loss of their QB's. Also, putting together a top-25 was a lot tougher than I thought it would when I set out to do this, but just trying to do the top 5 was tough as well.
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Franklin Crittenden 6 months ago
Yeah, if Bradford declares that would make a huge difference, but I doubt that for some reason. They will make another run for the BCS if he doesn't.
The bowl games really show what is what as far as I am concerned. Teams play within their own conferences and get a distorted idea of just how good they are.
In the bowls they finally have to play teams that do not get weak-kneed when mighty Oklahoma or Alabama run on the field.
Oh sure, I figure Texas, and Oklahoma will be in the Top 5 again after a few weeks next season, but you would think the media would learn their lesson after this season.
Just because they average 50+ points in the Big 12 doesn't mean that will translate outside their conference.
The Big 12 went 0-2 against the SEC. That should tell you who should be in your Top 10.
Good article for a lively debate!
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James Colt 6 months ago
Well I did put 3 SEC teams in the top 6 and 4 in the top 11. I gave LSU and Ole Miss their rankings largely based on their bowl games. Also the five Big 12 teams in my poll will be on almost every pre-season poll you will see I believe. Maybe not as high, but I have a hard time going with teams from the Big Ten, ACC, or Big East. Incidentally I just noticed I have no teams from the Big East. I don't even know who the Big East favorite is now that McCoy is declaring. I guess maybe South Florida or Cincinnati. Personally I think the MWC should take the Big East's auto bid for the BCS.
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David Hedlind 6 months ago
I am an Oregon fan and even I think you may have the Ducks a bit high since Oregon is rebuilding both lines and may have some favorable home games but still has @Boise State, Purdue, Utah and Cal all in Sept. If they can get through that they should be able to make it to late Oct date with USC in good standing.
Also surprised you dont have Oregon State on here with the return of Moevao and both Rogers brothers they should be up in there
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James Colt 6 months ago
Well I do appreciate the rebuilding job that Oregon has, but I really like Masoli, and I'm a believer in a good QB will breed a good team. They do have a tough schedule for sure, but I wasn't really looking at what teams might do, but what I think their capabilities are. Oregon State is certainly an interesting case, and they may have a very good year, but I think most people like myself are kind of taking the wait and see approach with them. I'll tell you making this list was a lot tougher than I thought it would be, and I don't envy voters who do this on a weekly basis. I do think the Pac-10 will be up in 2009 next year. Thanks for the read and the comment David.
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Danny Herron 6 months ago
Ejoyed this, ND seems to have been forgotten and that is a huge mistake, they will be the "comeback team of the year" They finally have experience.
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James Colt 6 months ago
To tell you the truth I did completely forget about Notre Dame. Never gave them one thought, but beating Hawaii didn't really prove anything to me. Their regular season did all the talking to me, and it wasn't a good one. Having home games against the majority of the good teams they face will help them this year, but until they prove it on the field they aren't on my list. Thanks for the read and the comment.
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Michael Inglis 6 months ago
LSU is not top 10 material. Everyone is all excited about Ole Miss next year but they will dissapoint a lot of people. Houston Nutt just isn't the type of coach that Saban, Miles, and Meyer is. Ole Miss will win 8 to 9 games next year.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Well those two certainly might not show up in the AP preseason top 10 either, but I felt after watching them in their bowl games that they were very impressive. Nutt certainly is the caliber of coach that you listed, but he is inventive, and he has a very good QB which is something he's never had before. Thanks for the read and the comment.
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J. Michael Morris 6 months ago
I'm more interested in the pre-season rankings for the 2021 season. What do you think?
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James Colt 6 months ago
Lol, I won't give you the top 25, but I like Vanderbilt in 2021 to win the national championship in a playoff system. How's that work for ya? Thanks for the read and you comment.
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Michael Collins 6 months ago
James,
Call it the Pre-Preseason Poll.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Yep is sure is early, but I think it's always fun to see what people think with the season so far away. Also, you can come out with several of these, one after declaration day has passed, one going in to spring practice, one coming out of spring practice, etc. Thanks for the read and the comment.
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Lisa Horne 6 months ago
wow...I'm not ready for this. But...I think you have Texas too high, and Fla State too low. And Oregon should be way up there. Sorry, but the Big 12 South shouldn't be in top 5. It's rotten, but what the heck...they failed miserably in the bowls, and I don't want to reward that play.
Love the LSU pick! Huge! Jefferson as their QB solves most of their problems. I agree on Florida No. 1 and USC No. 2.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Interesting that you think Texas is too high. Why is that? They are really pretty much the consensus favorite to win the Big 12 in '09. Texas didn't fail in their bowl. I don't really care what they won by a win is a win. A great team still finds a way to win when they don't bring their A game, and that is what they did. Plus, Texas wasn't even supposed to make it to a BCS bowl this year because it was going to be a down year because they were so young. I think Fla St. is may be to high on my list because defense is what has been winning for them, and they are going to have to do some rebuilding there, which means their offense, which was very inconsistent, will have to do some growing up. The LSU pick was really kind of going out on a limb, but I really was impressed with Jefferson. Florida was an easy pick as long as Tebow returns. I think USC is the second best team, but I think they will fall victim to an extremely tough schedule. If they make it through their gauntlet with 1 loss they won't be shut out of the NC game this time. Thanks for the read and the comment.
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JoeGator Gator 6 months ago
James - Nice work. I agree on Florida at #1, but I think the Gators will be just as tough if Tebow goes to the NFL. Tebow won't be bowling over LB's ad safeties, but we may see Hernandez taking direct snaps in short-yardage situations (like Tebow did as a Freshman).
Brantley will be a different sort of QB, but will still put up ample points on the scoreboard (maybe more in some situations). The '09 D will be every bit as strong as the '06 D, and the '09 O will have far more weapons than Leak had to work with.
In '09, either Tebow or Brantley will yield the same result... another SEC championship and another trip to the BCS NCG.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Thanks for the read and the comment Joe. I suspect you know a little more about the Gators than myself so I'll take your word on Brantley. You still lose a lot of intangibles with Tebow out of the line up though. You are right about their D being tough though. They will certainly be one of the toughest in the country if not the best. Thanks for the comment and congrats on the NC.
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JoeGator Gator 6 months ago
James - Nice work. I agree on Florida at #1, but I think the Gators will be just as tough if Tebow goes to the NFL. Tebow won't be bowling over LB's ad safeties, but we may see Hernandez taking direct snaps in short-yardage situations (like Tebow did as a Freshman).
Brantley will be a different sort of QB, but will still put up ample points on the scoreboard (maybe more in some situations). The '09 D will be every bit as strong as the '06 D, and the '09 O will have far more weapons than Leak had to work with.
In '09, either Tebow or Brantley will yield the same result... another SEC championship and another trip to the BCS NCG... Anybody know any good restaurants in Pasadena?
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James Durrett 6 months ago
James, I did an analysis of about 20 potential top 20 football teams (too much time on my hands).
For each team I went back to recruiting year 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. Additionally I added the current to date recruits of 2009. Each player signed during those periods was evaluated for: (1) Their "star" rating (using the most utilized recruiting service), (2) Whether or not they were still on the team, and I also determined how many "unrated", "1 stars", "2 stars", "3 stars", "4 stars", and "5 stars" were starting---or in a backup capacity. Of couse I was careful to not count any players more than one (players placed and signed the next year).
Then I added the total points for each team of their first 95 players (walk-ons were excluded), and divided to get an "average per player ranking". Remember, only players still on the team as of next year (2009-2010) were counted. For potential early junior NFL players, I kept them on the teams unless they had already announced. Here is the result:
The average rating of the first 95 players for the top teams were as follows:
(1) USC - 3.94
(2) LSU - 3.87
(3) Florida - 3.86
(4) Texas - 3.73
(5) Ohio State - 3.66
(6) Oklahoma - 3.62
There was a dropp-off after this, and teams (7) through (20) consisted of the usual suspects.
Of course this analysis assumes that the recruiting service ratings were consistent and accurate, and it does not consisder college development of the players, strength and conditioning, and coaching. It also does not consider quarterback strength, schedule, "superplayers", playing time, and other such factors.
So there you have it!
Incidently, your only bad selections based on this analysis are: Alabama (still not a real high rating per palyer---despite 2 good recruiting classes), North Carolina (should be much further down), and Ole Miss (off the radar---ranked in the 40's of all division 1 teams).
Another James.
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James Colt 6 months ago
Wow James that sounds like a whole lot of work. It's very interesting, and I think you should definitely post that as an article because that is too much research to just be left sitting on my comments board. I'm glad that I only had three bad selections. I really was a little hesitant to actually put Alabama that high, but feel they merited some recognition for their season. Your work was very well done, and very interesting to read. Obviously you recognize that player development and other factors are important to a teams success, but nevertheless five of your top six are in my top five and the other is in my top ten so that is very intriguing to me. Good work, and please post this as an article.
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scott Bright 5 months ago
watch out for Arkansas! played a number of freshman with big time quaterback already there. Great recuriting class. might get a lot of laughs, but you'll see. their also in the minor league nfl league SEC! Scottb
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James Colt 5 months ago
I've been saying since about week 3 this year to watch out for Arkansas as a sleeper in 2009. There schedule is pretty brutal, but like you said they played a ton of underclassmen, and with Ryan Mallet stepping in to run Bobby Petrino's system, the Hogs will upset a team or two. I firmly believe they will win the SEC West in 2010. Thanks for the read and the comment.
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Chad Haynie 5 months ago
I must say James, I definitely respect you for having the guts to put out a Top 25 this earlier, but I just can't keep my two big problems with your Top 10 to myself.
1) The inclusion of LSU in your Top 5.
As someone who follows the SEC West EXTREMELY closely, I just don't see how anyone could put this team in the Top 10, little alone the Top 4 putting them above the reigning Big 12 Champs with a Heisman Quarterback possible returning (as you say, you assume he will). Sure, LSU showed promise in their big Chick-fil-a Bowl win, but lets consider a couple of things. A: It's the Chick-fil-a Bowl, B: the Georgia Tech team they faced played a totally unispired game and showed no will to win.
While they played a good game, they didn't really face great competition, so that really isn't a good way to judge how they are going to play in 2009. They lost 5 of their last 8 and with only a few exceptions (Tulane and Alabama) did not play well at all. In my honest opinion, it will take a lot more than just good play from Jefferson (or who ever they end up starting) to succeed in the SEC.
Don't forget they go on the road to play AT Georgia, AT Alabama and AT Ole Miss.
I wouldn't expect them to come in the top two in the west, I REALLY don't see them finishing in the Top 10.
2) You probably already know where this is going... How do you leave Alabama out of the Top 10???
The only team in a BCS conference (and the SEC at that) to go undefeated in the Regular season and you snub them out of the Top 10? Yeah, they lost the SEC Championship Game and the Sugar to the #1 and #2 teams in the country. Not anything to really be ashamed of. Their are losses on the offensive line and quarterback, but the only position out of those that there will be much drop off, if any at all is at Center.
John Parker Wilson was a senior, but not much more. His replacement (whether its McElroy, Jackon or McCarron) will be an upgrade in talent, especially if its the last two. A quarterback who can open up the passing game will bring an even bigger threat combined with the Tide's power running game. Consider that along with the fact that Alabama returns 9 starters (and by the way, Terence Cody announced before the Sugar Bowl that he is returning next year) which will be one of the nations top defenses. Just very difficult to not have Alabama in any legitimate Top 10. Putting them third in the West is simply crazy.
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James Colt 5 months ago
Chad, thanks for the read and the comment. I do respect your oppinion, and I certainly don't have a crystal ball. LSU was a big leap of faith on my part, but I feel that they will have the ability to win the SEC West, which I feel will be the toughest division in football next year. They have tons of talent on both sides of the ball, and will be in every single game this year with a chance to win. 4 is probably a little too high, but hey the season still hasn't started, so I'm really no more wrong than you.
As for Alabama, I think center isn't the only drop off they will have. They got abused at left tackle in the Sugar Bowl by Utah. Smith's replacement may as well not have even been on the field because he was just blown by on almost every snap. Losing experience is a tremendous thing at quarterback. Even though the replacement, whoever that is, is more athletic and more talented you cannot make up experience, and in a conference with ferocious defenses an inexperienced quarterback will get exposed. Also, as far as the Alabama defense goes, I'm not really sold on them. They didn't fare well against the only two explosive offenses they played and were unable to stop the run against them.
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Chad Haynie 5 months ago
That's a pretty good laugh there bud.
In the future you may want to do a little bit of research before you try to break down a team.
Andre Smith's replacement wasn't on the field in the Sugar Bowl, he is an incoming recruit. His name is DJ Fluker 6-foot-7 350 left tackle, depending on which recruiting service you look at he is either 1st or 2nd in the nation at his position. Trust me, there will be no drop off there.
While you are correct that it is good to have an experienced quarterback, John Parker Wilson was never a very good decision maker to begin with. To think his successor would have much worse decision making skills would be unwise, although if it is one of the younger guys they will take time to find their rythm like all young quarterbacks.
Just one question for you... HOW CAN YOU NOT BE IMPRESSED ON THE NUMBER THREE DEFENSE IN THE NATION?
Alabama is third in total defense holding their opponents on average to 263.5 yards a game, and SECOND in the nation in Rushing Defense holding their opponents on average to 74.14 yards a game. I don't know who you saw in which Alabama was "unable to stop the run", but it certainly wasn't a real game played on the field this year.
Now how in the world with those numbers and 9 of the starters returning do you say this will not be one of the best defenses in the country? That is just absurd.
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James Colt 5 months ago
You are trying to tell me that there will be no drop off at a spot being taken over by a true freshman for a player who will be drafted in the top 10. That is worth a good laugh. You cannot plug in a freshman regardless of how talented and expect the same result as the guy that was there who is a first round draft pick. Sure he'll be good, but not as good as Andre Smith, at least not right away. Inexperience will be eaten alive at the LT position in the SEC, and if it isn't then I guess SEC defenses aren't as good as advertised. As for their defense, if you could show which top offense in the country they stopped before their last two games of the year that would be one thing, but they played against some poor offensive teams all year, and then when they played Florida (OU held UF to fewer points than Alabama, go figure on that one) and Utah (come on 21 points in the first quarter) the defense was unable to win the game for the Tide like they were needed to to be able to win those games. You act like I'm completely ignoring Alabama though, and I'm not. I said that it would be huge for them to have 9 starters on defense returning from one of the top defenses in the country. Just because I didn't rank them as high as you thought, don't worry because it's only preseason, and I don't have a vote in any polls any way. Thanks for your comments, I really appreciate them.
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Chad Haynie 5 months ago
Bud I'm not worried, just a little blown away by your ignorance. A) Alabama held Utah to 13 yards rushing, so where you get the idea that they ran all over us, I have no idea. I'll be the first to tell you the Tide was outcoached and outplayed in the Sugar Bowl. No doubt about it. B) Alabama held Florida nearly 100 yards below their season average. so where you get the idea that Alabama didn't play well defensively I don't really know, compare that to your Sooners giving up 480 yards (to just 358 against Alabama) and it looks very impressive. That takes me to another point, don't try to use score comparisons, it is one of the most ignorant things to do in sports, Alabama put up more points on Florida than Oklahoma did, does that mean BAMA has a better offense than OU, no.
As for your argument as to playing top offenses, they play in the SEC, its a defensive conference. Just like the Big 12 is an offensive conference (FACT: the Big 12 didn't have a single defense in the Top 50 in the nation, WHY? because five of the top 10 offenses in the country are from the Big 12, it is the exact same thing in the SEC, just reversed)
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James Colt 5 months ago
Well Chad Alabama did give up fewer yards to Florida than OU, but I've never been a yardage guy when it comes to defense. I've never looked at the final of a game and seen it determined by who had more yardage. In fact I've seen several games where the team with the most yardage lost. Scoring defense is the stat I always pay attention to because that is the stat that determines the winner at the end of the day. As for Bama's defense yes it is good, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying it didn't look as good at the end of the year as it did the rest of the year. If Alabama can take care of business then they will have another shot. I'm simply saying that I think their schedule might be a little tough for them to come out with fewer than 2 losses this year. If they make it out with 1, I'm still not sure that will be enough because I anticipate two undefeated teams in 2009.
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James Hieb 5 months ago
Okay this guy obviously didn't do his homework because Boise State is bringing back 18 starters and will definitely be the highest rated "mid-major" at least top 15 if not top 10 to begin next season. You can ask all college football experts and they all agree.
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James Colt 5 months ago
Well I don't know that Boisie will the top rated "mid-major" (that's actually the basketball term they are non-bcs in football) because the MWC earned a lot of respect this year. TCU beating Boisie and Utah beating Alabama I think actually gave the MWC more credibility than the Big East. Boisie being in the WAC really hurts them because one loss (even out of conference to say Oregon) will drop them from consideration for any BCS game, and I don't think they can pull two undefeated seasons in a row. I've seen some college football "experts" not even include Boisie in their top 25, so I don't think they all agree. They certainly will not be in the top 10 to start the year, but 15 may not be out of the question. I stand by where I put them, and if you have a problem with my opinion then I'm sorry, but it's my opininon and every one is entitled to them, and I did do my homework on Boisie, and that's where I feel they belong.
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Razorback Fan 5 months ago
This is a good list, but I think Arkansas should be ranked a bit higher, maybe #24, but not much higher.
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James Colt 5 months ago
Thanks for the comment and the read. I debated really hard about the merits of Arkansas, and I think you are probably correct.
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Ronnie Throneberry 5 months ago
James, your reasoning makes a lot of sense based on last season and returning players. Of course, we all know the first 4 or 5 weeks into the season gives us a better picture of real team strength.
USC probably won't be ranked as highly without Sanchez, but their defense may carry them for a while. With the top three quarterbacks in the country returning, we will see some great competition for the #1 spot. Alabama will certainly be in the big picture also. Good post. I look forward to following your work.
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James Colt 5 months ago
I appreciate your read and comment Ronnie. You are definitely right about waiting until week 4 or 5. I really think it should probably be about week 8 because conferences like the Big 12 don't get into to actual conference play until week 6 or 7. I think now that everyone has declared that is going to declare for the draft that quite clearly Florida, Texas, and OU are by far the 3 best teams in the country.
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Reggie Vick 5 months ago
Hey james looks good and i really appreciate the credibility your giving the Mountain West, but where is BYU they only had 3 key players leaving this year. We still have our standout Quarterback in Max Hall, not one of our running backs graduated either. Yea the defense struggled but pretty much all of them are coming back, they were a young team this year, and they struggled against Arizona, but what about UCLA 59-0 Wyoming 55-0, BYU will be one of the most elite teams in the country next year, and I (a san diego state fan) think that they will be the BCS buster. they should be in the top 25 without a doubt.
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James Colt 5 months ago
Well don't bring me scores against UCLA and Wyoming and say that is a reason that BYU is good. I was never impressed by BYU last year. I'm sorry, but I felt Hall couldn't handle good defenses, i.e. TCU and Utah. BYU should have been Washington's only win of the year if weren't for the terrible call at the end of the game. Hall is also losing his top receiving threat. BYU just never looked good against teams that were actually good. They most certainly will not be one of the most elite teams in the country next year, and they will get rolled up by OU in Dallas. Thanks for the comment and the read, I really appreciate it.
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Kevin Trahan 5 months ago
thanks for the iowa pick. they'll contend for the Big Ten Title this year.
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James Colt 5 months ago
They showed last year that they belonged in the top 25, but we'll see how they can do without Shonn Green.
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Reggie Vick 5 months ago
Washington would have been a decent team if locker would have not been injured, perhaps even a bowl team game. You can't tell me that you weren't the least bit impressed after the Y stomped on UCLA. Utah and TCU were both top 10 caliber teams, and Arizona was really good too. BYU should be where Vanderbilt is Vandy lost 6 games....6 GAMES and you have em in the top 20. but if not BYU who will be the BCS buster?
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Larry Mann 5 months ago
WELL LAST YEAR BAMA WASN'T EVEN IN THE TOP 30 AND FINISHED THE REGULAR SEASON NO.1
A REPECTABLE # 6 IN THE FINAL POLLS. IF YOU PICK THEM 11 NOW LOOK OUT! THE 10 HIGHER TEAMS PROBABLY ARE STEELERS-CARDINALS ETC.
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Spencer Roach 5 months ago
I like seeing Iowa up there. I put them at 11th, but I think that's a little bit too high. Top 15 is still about right though.
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Spencer Roach 5 months ago
I have to disagree with Oregon. They have 6 defensive starters returning from a mediocre defense, and on offense they lose their whole line. That's the heart of an offense, in my opinion, and if they struggle, everyone else does too. I didn't rank them at all, but it's preseason, and it's very hard to rank teams in the preseason.
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Sam Brown 5 months ago
The Texas Longhorns should have a pretty good season. We got Colt back along with Jordan, like you said. We got 1 5-star recruit D-lineman, and like 2 4-star recruit D-lineman, according to a website I was on. So we should be pretty good there. I know its aways away but I can't wait for the season to start. HOOK 'EM HORNS!!!
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James Colt 5 months ago
I don't usually ever worry about graduation and losses on either line for Texas. Every year they just reload at those positions better than probably anyone else in the country. Talent never declines on the lines for Texas. The only thing they really lose due to graduation on the offensive and defensive lines are experience, but never talent. Just look at what Texas brought in this year at the offensive line spots. Plus, the d-line went two deep at every spot except for Orakpo, but he missed some significant time, and yet Texas still led the nation in sacks. With Acho at one d-end, and perhaps Kindle moving to the other end, and Lamaar Houston in the middle the d-line will be stout yet again. The defense for Texas will be as good as we've seen since 2005. The o-line will be perhaps the best in the country. The only real question mark on the Texas team, I think, is will a running back finally break out. People thought Texas didn't run well last season, but they actually weren't bad running for 170 yards a game, but no one back was able to really be THE back. It will be nice if Whitaker can stay healthy and be the feature back.
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Sam Brown 5 months ago
We haven't had a good running back well...since, Jamaal Charles, but he's gone. You said we ran for 170 yards per game, but if you look back at it, Colt had alot of those yards, but so did the RB.
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aergaerg aerg 5 months ago
complete garbage of an article
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Adam turley 5 months ago
If Texas somehow finds a running game, they won't be stopped. McCoy led their team in rushing and SHOULD have been in the national championship game. Add a good running back, with their new OL recruits and existing ones.....Texas offense won't be stopped. I just hope they fill the gaps in the DL which we all know they will.
Hookem bitch
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James Colt 5 months ago
Thanks for the read and comment Adam. You are right about the run game. I think if he stays healthy Whitaker will be the feature back the Horns need. As far as the DL goes those spots were already filled last year except for one. Lamaar Houston was technically listed second on the depth chart, but put better numbers than Aaron Lewis. Sam Acho has seen significant playing time every season since his freshman year, and if the talk of moving Kindle to the other DE is true that just leaves Texas needing to fill the other DT position unless they switch to a 3-4, but that is unlikely and not necessary.
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Joe Smith 4 months ago
Thanks for the Nebraska pick...big husker fan here.
But, I do disagree with you on one big thing, is that Missouri should be in the top 25. I know it may seem weird to have a nebraska fan giving good praise for Mizzou, but, I think they will be the biggest sleeper in the big 12. I'm not looking forward to going down there to play them, it will be tough and I think without Joe Ganz we may be in huge trouble. Mizzou has an incredible quarterback in Blaine Gabbert, who is a 6-6 sophomore, who has a cannon for an arm. Gabbert was rated second in all of quarterbacks in his recruiting class, behind Terrel Pryor. He will definately be a big upside for the tigers. Nebraska had Gabbert commited to us, but after our fall-out he de-commited and is now playing for mizzou, which is a huge miss for us, and it may just give another big 12 north title to the tigers. Also the Tigers will be bringing Derrick Washington, who many people don't really know about, but after watching him kick our tail in Lincoln, he'll do a lot of damage to others, plus it can take some pressure off of Gabbert. That is the tigers tailback, who will be a junior this year.
All I'm saying is don't count out the tigers...
Go Huskers!!
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James Colt 4 months ago
Thanks for the comment Joe. I have to disagree about Missouri. They shouldn't have been top 25 last year with Daniel and Maclin. I always hear about how good Washington is, but in the four games I watched Missouri he didn't do much, and it's probably not his fault, but the fault of the coaching staff for not utilizing him more. Oh, and while I'm on the coaching staff they will not only be breaking in a new qb, but almost an entirely new coaching staff. The folks in Columbus won't be too happy this season.
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Ryan Williams 4 months ago
dude are you serious?? Alabama #11?? 3rd or 4th in the west?? really? who will beat Bama in the west? ol' miss and LSU are contenders but look at how Saban's first number 1 recruiting class helped the team. McElroy, Jackson, or McCarron could easily be a great replacement of J.P. Wilson. you cant say that the running game will be too much of a change. take a look at Tyler Love, he ain't Andre Smith but he can hold his own. Glen Coffee was good but Alabama has plenty of depth when it comes to runningbacks. Terry Grant, Mark Ingram, Griffin, Upchurch, oh and dont forget about newly recruited Trent Richardson. i've seen that boy play and he doesnt always go through holes, he goes through the line. dont be surprised to see Alabama's starting Runningback go for over 1500 yards. You might not be a believer but i am. i got The Tide finishing top 5. Roll Tide Roll
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James Colt 4 months ago
Thanks for the comment. I did this list quite a while ago, and it's time for me to update because I did it before underclassmen declared for the draft so I was counting on Cody being gone. I do have Alabama moving up, but they are still second in the West behind Ole Miss. I don't see a top 5 because I think they will lose to Va Tech and Ole Miss. They may end up being better than Va Tech by end of the season, but that is a tough game to start your year out on when you have a new quarterback and some new lineman to break in. Don't tell me you aren't worried about the line. Did you not see how they performed in the Sugar bowl when they were down a couple of lineman?
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Gregory K. 3 months ago
Enjoyed your article very much. Thanks for good information. Curious how you see the 2009 Georgia Bulldogs. Are the Bulldogs slightly outside the top 25 or farther down ?
As a UGA grad I am an average fan and mostly a UGA realist for both the good and bad . There was so much hype here before the 2008 season. After the wave of key injuries there was no way the Bulldogs were a true BCS contender.
Many here quietly have a better feeling about the 2009 season, barring severe injuries. Joe Cox is probably a better QB in terms of game management and decision making ability; rather than the often Helter-Skelter performance from Stafford. Stafford played his career with a make shift and extremely young offensive line. Cox should have a much more solid, deep, and experienced O-line.
Defense seems to be the more unsure factor. Last year was down right awful at times (LSU, Florida, and Georgia Tech games) and a large contingent wants the D-coordinator gone. Alot will depend on how the group improves. A quality rushing DE appears to be the biggest hole with no immediate candidate coming forward.
Look forward to your objective opinion.
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Gregory K. 3 months ago
Enjoyed your article very much. Thanks for the good information. Curious how you see the 2009 Georgia Bulldogs. Are the Bulldogs slightly outside the top 25 or farther down ?
As a UGA grad I am an average fan and mostly a UGA realist for both the good and bad . There was so much hype here before the 2008 season. After the wave of key injuries there was no way the Bulldogs were a true BCS contender.
Many here quietly have a better feeling about the 2009 season, barring severe injuries. Joe Cox is probably a better QB in terms of game management and decision making ability; rather than the often Helter-Skelter performance from Stafford. Stafford played his career with a make shift and extremely young offensive line. Cox should have a much more solid, deep, and experienced O-line.
Defense seems to be the more unsure factor. Last year was down right awful at times (LSU, Florida, and Georgia Tech games) and a large contingent wants the D-coordinator gone. Alot will depend on how the group improves. A quality rushing DE appears to be the biggest hole with no immediate candidate coming forward.
Look forward to your objective opinion.
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James Colt 3 months ago
Thanks for reading and commenting Gregory. Georgia was just slightly outside of my top 25 when I wrote this. Every time I thought about putting them somewhere I just thought about how bad they looked against every ranked team they played last year and what they were losing to the draft.
I did write this some time ago though, and I'm researching for my new top 25. I think Georgia will find themselves somewhere between 16 and 25 on the next list. I think that injuries were a major factor for their downfall last year, and I also think that Cox and King will be suitable replacements, plus Cox will have A.J. Green to throw to and he can make any quarterback a quality one for sure. Their defense definitely needs to improve drastically, but as long as they win the games they are supposed to, especially with a weak east division, they could grind out 9 wins in 2009.
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woody dunn 3 months ago
How do you have the tarheel's ranked 15th? You must be talking about the basketball team because the football team is not a top 20 team.If you rank them that high the the north carolina state team is going to win the national championship this year because they are a way better ball club!!!!!!
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Cock and 3 months ago
OLE MISS by Damn! Yu have to be some waterhead from a bad imbread family to think it is time for Houston Nutt and the Ole Miss Rebels to get back to being the team to beat in college football. Ole miss lost 4 games in 08 and all by fumbles in the endzone. This was the first time in 40 years that Ole Miss hasn't had a loss in double didgets. Nutt is the real deal and so is Snead and this is the beginning of a new era for college football. Ole Miss will be the National Champion in the next 2 years................. Hotty Toddy
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Ken Stansell about 1 month ago
Oregon will not finish ahead of Cal in the national rankings. Cal going to the Holiday Bowl with USC a favorite (again) for the Rose Bowl may not be a bad prediction but no way does Oregon finish ahead of Cal next year. Cal is a much stronger team than Oregon and Bellotti is no longer the head coach. They will suffer a transition year. Oregon State will finish higher than Oregon next year and may even be the sleeper pick for winning the PAC-10 next season.
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Joseph Morgan 23 days ago
Vanderbilt at #23 i believe is a very good pick considering that they still have one of the best if not the best defenses in the SEC which therefore means the country cuz the SEC is the most dominating conference in the country. But with a great quarterback rotation and the entire offensive line coming back with experience means that this team will be a extremely dangerous teams if they can get production from their receivers this year but that is a toss up bcuz they flip flop alot but this team might crack the top ten with a tough schedule this year and wins them of course.
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jonathan hause 5 days ago
Everyone is forgetting about East Carolina. With Skip Holtz as coach and 5th year returning QB Patrick Pinkney, and a host of returning starters they are sure to have a great year and should be ranked in the top 20. They had impressive wins last year over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Where is the respect for the Purple & Gold. GO PIRATES!!!
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