Analyzing the Draft Day Scenarios for the Rams and the No. 2 Pick

Steven GerwelContributor IIIFebruary 28, 2012

Analyzing the Draft Day Scenarios for the Rams and the No. 2 Pick

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    The Indianapolis Colts lost their season-finale at Jacksonville, which seemingly deprived the envious St. Louis Rams of the ultimate franchise-enhancing opportunity—the No. 1 overall draft pick. 

    The Colts took possession of the top pick and all of the trade down possibilities that came with it. 

    They were supposedly in the driver's seat, but Peyton Manning vengefully slashed every tire. Now the Colts are at the alter with their prearranged bride, Andrew Luck, while Manning is directly behind them with a loaded shotgun.

    If the Colts had any faith in Manning's ability to bounce back next season, then they'd still have the option of trading the top pick. However, with a disgruntled Manning and uncertainty at the quarterback position, there's no possible way they can pass on Luck.

    Thanks to Manning, as well as Baylor's Heisman-winning sensation Robert Griffin III, the Rams have inherited the opportunity to pawn their No. 2 pick for a stack of crisp bills.

    Griffin ran a 4.41 second 40-yard dash to go along with a 39-inch vertical jump, but he isn't merely a combine star. His 7,794 passing yards and 77 total touchdowns over the last two seasons certainly suggests that he's a pure football player as well.

    With that kind of potential, there's surely general interest among multiple teams.

    But how much are those teams willing to pay, and how little are the Rams willing to accept? 

    According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Rams are already in trade talks and are looking for a deal similar to the 2004 trade between the Chargers and Giants, which ended in the Giants trading two first-round picks, a third-round pick and a fifth-round pick for No. 1 overall draft pick Eli Manning

    And since that trade came seven years before the rookie wage scale, it's probably a reflection of what the Rams are expecting at minimum. 

    Here are several scenarios that could play out on draft day...

The Cleveland Scenario

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    Mike Holmgren is a shrewd football mind and is the team president of the Cleveland Browns. He's too intelligent to throw away his draft in Mike Ditka fashion all in the name of flowing with the hype.

    However, with 36 years of coaching experience, he's also aware of the importance of owning a franchise quarterback, which is exactly what he'd be getting in Robert Griffin III.

    The Browns are one of three teams with two first-round picks in the 2012 draft, which makes their potential offer stand out well above the rest.

    Although, since the Browns are sitting at No. 4 overall and will advance only two spots, there's a chance that the Rams will lose some late-round picks that they'd receive from other teams. 

    Here is what the Rams could be looking at in a trade with Cleveland: 

     

    2012

    Round 1, Pick 4

    Round 1, Pick 22

    Round 3, Pick 68 

     

    2013

    Round 3, Pick X

The Washington Scenario

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    Saying that the Washington Redskins need a franchise quarterback is a gross understatement. 

    Gus Frerotte and Jason Campbell are the closest they've been to a franchise passer in the last 20 years. 

    It's been 27 years since Joe Theisman ended his career and 19 years since Mark Rypien left for Cleveland. Perhaps it's time to finally find a sufficient replacement?

    If the Redskins have good sense (not always the case for their franchise), they'll finally end a quarterback drought that started when Bush Sr. was in the White House. 

    If they trade up from No. 6 overall, here's what an acceptable offer would look like for the Rams:

     

    2012

    Round 1, Pick 6

    Round 2, Pick 39

    Round 4, Pick 102

     

    2013

    Round 1, Pick X

    Round 3, Pick X

The Miami Scenario

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    The Miami Dolphins did good by signing receiver Brandon Marshall to a five-year $47.3 million deal in 2010, but unfortunately they have no one capable of throwing him the ball. 

    Like Washington, the Dolphins have been through a lengthy quarterback drought ever since Dan Marino retired following the 1999 season. 

    Since Marino's departure, the Dolphins have started 16 different quarterbacks in 12 seasons, which means they need to finally find some consistency at the position.

    At No. 8 overall, the Dolphins will have to come up with a sizable offering if they want the Rams' attention.

     

    2012

    Round 1, Pick 8

    Round 2, Pick 42

    Round 4, Pick 73

     

    2013

    Round 1, Pick X

    Round 3, Pick X

    Round 4, Pick X 

Wild Card Scenario

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    Cleveland, Washington and Miami are the clear favorites in the bidding war for Robert Griffin III, but there's always a slim possibility that a mystery team will emerge with unwavering determination towards acquiring the young quarterback. 

    The Philadelphia Eagles were seen talking with Griffin at the NFL Combine, which naturally led to speculation that the Eagles would make a surprise offer to the Rams. 

    It's also possible for another quarterback starved team, such as Denver or Kansas City, to emerge out of the middle of the first-round with a blockbuster deal.

    For the Rams to be willing to drop down to the middle of the first round, the offer would have to be mind-blowing:

     

    2012

    Round 1, Pick X

    Round 2, Pick X

    Round 3, Pick X

    Round 6, Pick X

     

    2013

    Round 1, Pick X

    Round 2, Pick X 

Hostage Taking Scenario

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    Perhaps, the Rams will come off as too greedy and far too difficult to negotiate with. Maybe the Rams and other teams just won't see eye-to-eye on the true value of a potential franchise quarterback.

    If other teams withdraw their offers or low-ball the Rams throughout the process, then there's always the off-chance that the Rams will draft Robert Griffin III at No. 2 overall and hold him "hostage."

    One of two things can happen in this scenario. Either (a) the Rams hold out until a weak team cracks, resulting in said team paying up a ransom as lofty as expected; or (b) teams call the Rams on their bluff.

    There's no way the Rams will keep Griffin forever with Bradford already on the roster, so the Rams could actually lose their leverage in this scenario and end up with significantly less than what they originally demanded.