Fantasy Fallout: Trevor Hoffman Signs with Milwaukee Brewers

Trevor Hoffman agreed to terms with the Milwaukee Brewers on a one-year, $6 million contract on Thursday.

Hoffman, at the old age of 41, is an extremely risky signing for the Brewers, who were actively searching for an arm to bolster their bullpen. Hoffman had a good year with the Padres last season, but there are several questions as to whether he can continue posting numbers similar to his 2008 statistical line.

First off, don't expect Hoffman to repeat his stellar 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings from last season. In 2006 and 2007, he posted K/9 ratios of 7.1 and 6.9, making 2008 seem like a bit of an outlier.

One thing that has remained constant for Hoffman is his stellar control, walking less than two batters per nine innings, which should remain strong going into 2009.

It is a fairly safe bet to see Hoffman post a K/9 ratio of around 6.5-7.0 this season, considering he regresses to the mean. Assuming that his control slips slightly, his K/BB ratio should stand somewhere around 3.0, which is a strong K/BB ratio of a middle reliever, but not a closer. 

His ERA was 3.77 last year, and taking into account these statistical changes, expect Hoffman to post an ERA very close to 4.00-4.10. His stellar control should help to keep his WHIP down, but Hoffman won't be the shutdown closer that he has been over the past few seasons. 

All in all, Hoffman's signing is a decent one for the Brewers. However, their expectations of Hoffman have to be restrained to that of a solid middle-relief pitcher.

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