If you root for a 2011 NFL playoff team and want to know your team’s chances of returning to the postseason, flip a coin.
Of the 60 teams to qualify for the playoffs between 2006 and 2010, 30 made it back the next year.
Does the irregularity surprise you? It shouldn’t.
Success in the NFL has always been a fickle beast, burdened by injuries, uneven schedules and a sport that takes 16-game sample sizes for a full set.
Change is the NFL’s equilibrium. Stasis is the aberration.
So while I admit that I am crazy to predict that four of this year’s 12 NFL playoff participants will miss the 2012 postseason, it is not an overzealous kind of crazy.
I am crazy conservative, crazy close-minded, crazy obstinate.
I am crazy because if eight teams that made the playoffs in 2011 qualify anew in 2012, it will represent the lowest postseason turnover since the NFL switched to eight divisions a decade ago.
I am crazy because I’m not crazy enough.
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