2012 NFL Mock Draft: Determining Bust Odds for Every First Round Pick

Wes StueveContributor IIIFebruary 20, 2012

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Determining Bust Odds for Every First Round Pick

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    When it comes to the NFL draft, teams are obsessed with busts, and rightfully so. 

    A single bust can set a franchise back years, and a couple can be even more damaging. So obviously, teams do what they can to avoid the infamous bust.

    But not every team can.

    Some prospects seem almost certain to bust, and others seem destined for success. Most are between the two extremes.

    How likely to bust is your team's first-round pick?

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

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    No prospect in recent memory has been safer than Andrew Luck is. The Stanford star weighs in at 6'4", 235 pounds and already runs an NFL offense. That's a good start.

    But unlike many supposedly safe prospects, Luck is physically talented as well. He can throw the ball downfield, and few pocket passers are more mobile.

    There's nothing not to like.

    Bust Odds: five percent

2. St. Louis Rams: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

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    A technically-sound left tackle with great length, Matt Kalil seems like a sure thing. The USC product could afford to gain weight, but he has all the tell-tale signs of a future elite player.

    At 6'7", 295 pounds, Kalil has the frame to bulk up. If he does (and maybe if he doesn't), St. Louis should have a star.

    Bust Odds: six percent

3. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

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    The problem with Justin Blackmon isn't downside but upside. The 6'1", 215-pounder isn't overly fast or explosive for his size and can't really stretch the field.

    However, Blackmon is good at working the underneath and is a solid route-runner. His physical tools are impressive enough to ensure that he doesn't completely bust.

    Bust Odds: 10 percent

4. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

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    In college, Robert Griffin could do it all. The Heisman winner can run, throw deep, throw short and play intelligently. Unfortunately, Griffin is really small.

    The 6'2", 210-pounder isn't especially good at dodging hits and could struggle with injuries in the NFL. His ability to see over the line of scrimmage and avoid deflected passes could be an issue too.

    Bust Odds: 25 percent

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

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    Though Morris Claiborne isn't as talented as Patrick Peterson was a year ago, he may be the better cornerback. At 6'1", 185 pounds, Claiborne isn't especially big, but he's a physical player nonetheless.

    An excellent athlete, Claiborne possesses incredible ball skills and is capable of making interceptions that few others can. Claiborne isn't just an athlete, though. He uses good technique, especially in press coverage.

    Bust Odds: 10 percent

6. Washington Redskins: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

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    Over the years, running back has been one of the safest draft picks. And Trent Richardson is one of the best running backs to enter the draft in the past decade.

    A 5'10", 225-pound bowling ball, Richardson is incredibly powerful with above-average speed. The Alabama star is almost never tackled by just one defender, and he's a great receiver as well.

    Bust Odds: two percent

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

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    A great athlete with tremendous size, Quinton Coples was widely considered a top-five pick before this season. The 6'6", 281-pounder is a physical specimen but struggled some in 2011.

    Though his production has been decent, Coples hasn't displayed much burst as a pass-rusher. He's still good against the run, but pass-rushing ability is always the most important quality in a defensive end.

    As a left end, Coples can play. He may not be so successful on the right side.

    Bust Odds: 20 percent

8. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

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    NFL teams are going to fall in love with Fletcher Cox's explosiveness. He weighs in at just 6'4", 295 pounds, but he possesses a fantastic first step and can penetrate the backfield with ease.

    On the other hand, Cox isn't overly strong at the point of attack and lacks real power. It's possible that Cox will be too inefficient in the power game to really help his NFL team.

    Bust Odds: 25 percent

9. Miami Dolphins: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

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    The elephant in the room is whether Riley Reiff can play left tackle. The 6'6", 305-pounder is certainly athletic enough, but he doesn't possess great footwork and may be better off on the right side.

    Reiff isn't a powerful player either. He struggles at the point of attack and is nothing special in the run game. The Iowa left tackle has some upside, but he also has a pretty low floor.

    Bust Odds: 30 percent

10. Buffalo Bills: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois

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    Whitney Mercilus's insane production gets him drafted this high. His 16 sacks in 2011 were extremely impressive, but his actual football skills weren't.

    Mercilus's first step is nothing special, and he lacks any pass-rush moves worth mentioning. There's simply nothing special about the Illinois star.

    Bust Odds: 50 percent

11. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

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    A converted wide receiver, Ryan Tannehill is still raw. The Texas A&M star is incredibly talented, and he has the potential to develop into an elite player.

    However, Tannehill's decision-making is inconsistent to say the least. He frequently throws costly interceptions, and he has a lot to work on before will be a capable starting quarterback.

    Bust Odds: 35 percent

12. Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

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    Prior to his senior season, Mike Adams was an underachiever. At 6'7", 323 pounds, Adams is incredibly talented, but he was simply awful on the field.

    As a senior, however, Adams dominated. He finally played up to his talent level after previously looking lazy. Only one offensive tackle in this class has more upside, but Adams's downside is not insignificant. 

    Bust Odds: 30 percent

13. Arizona Cardinals: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

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    There's nothing not to like about David DeCastro. The Stanford guard is 6'5", 315 pounds and can play in the open field or at the point of attack. DeCastro is the best interior line prospect in recent memory.

    Though he is certainly physically talented, DeCastro is also great technically. He manages to stay low and packs a powerful punch. It's hard to imagine him busting from anything other than injury.

    DeCastro doesn't have injury problems.

    Bust Odds: three percent

14. Dallas Cowboys: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

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    A 6'3", 190-pound cornerback, Dre Kirkpatrick is incredibly talented. The Alabama star can tackle or run with the fastest of wide receivers.

    We haven't seen Kirkpatrick used in many ways, though. He has primarily been used close to the line of scrimmage in press, and he's a bit of a mystery running downfield. This added with a recent marijuana arrest adds to his risk.

    Bust Odds: 30 percent

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

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    Though he's not an elite athlete, Luke Kuechly possesses phenomenal instincts and is constantly around the ball. Few players are more refined, and Kuechly is almost guaranteed to develop into a solid player.

    Kuechly may not be a great athlete, but he isn't a bad one either. At 6'3", 235 pounds, Kuechly isn't particularly big, yet he can still shred blocks and play the run. The Boston College linebacker is simply fantastic in coverage.

    Bust Odds: five percent

16. New York Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

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    Michael Floyd has excellent size, above-average athleticism, great body control and superb hands. His college production was great, and, with time, Floyd could develop into an elite player. There's nothing not to like. 

    The problem with Floyd, however, is his ability to stay on the field. The 6'3", 230-pounder has had problems with injuries and alcohol-related arrests.

    Bust Odds: 35 percent

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

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    Over the past few years at Florida, Janoris Jenkins was one of, if not the best cornerbacks in college football. However, Jenkins had several off-the-field issues and was kicked off the Gators' team.

    At North Alabama, Jenkins played up to his talent level. On the field, there's nothing Jenkins can't do. There's no denying his talent, but the risk is huge.

    Bust Odds: 50 percent

18. San Diego Chargers: Michael Brockers, DE, LSU

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    A 6'6", 310-pound defensive tackle, Michael Brockers can play in any defensive scheme. The LSU star is a good athlete with a chiseled physique.

    In a 3-4 scheme, Brockers is a potential star. In a 4-3, his lack of elite explosiveness is more costly, and he will probably just be solid.

    The biggest concern surrounding Brockers is whether he was simply a one-year wonder.

    Bust Odds: 20 percent

19. Chicago Bears: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

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    Few wide receivers are faster and more explosive than Kendall Wright is. The Baylor star is only 5'10", 190 pounds, but other small wideouts have been able to find success on the outside.

    If it weren't for his size, Wright would easily be a top-10 pick. However, his size is a huge detriment, and it could help make him bust.

    In the worst case scenario, though, Wright moves inside to the slot, where he excels.

    Bust Odds: 15 percent

20. Tennessee Titans: Courtney Upshaw, DE, Alabama

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    Unlike most 3-4 outside linebackers in the NFL, Courtney Upshaw will not change positions at the next level. Because he already plays in a 3-4 defense, Upshaw is not nearly as risky as most 'tweeners.

    The 6'2", 271-pound Upshaw isn't overly explosive as a pass-rusher, but he's stout against the run. In fact, Upshaw could actually play inside linebacker in the NFL as a thumper in a 3-4 scheme.

    Bust Odds: 15 percent

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

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    Many view Cordy Glenn as a first-round guard, but he is too slow to even play on the inside. Though the 6'5", 345-pounder is incredibly powerful and dominates in the run game, he struggles in every other aspect.

    In pass protection, Glenn is slow and struggled with speed at guard, not to mention left tackle. Even as a run-blocker, Glenn can't get to the second level and is limited to power blocking.

    Because of his lack of athletic ability, Glenn is a prime candidate to not live up to his draft status.

    Bust Odds: 60 percent

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta): Nick Perry, DE, USC

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    At 6'3", 250 pounds, Nick Perry may be better suited for a 3-4 defense. In the right scheme, however, Perry can play defensive end. The USC product needs to add more pass-rush moves, but his athleticism is intriguing.

    Any player needing refinement is risky. Perry is no exception, and his stiffness off the edge makes him more so than others.

    Bust Odds: 40 percent

23. Detroit Lions: Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina

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    One of the most athletic linebackers in all of football, Zach Brown is simply a playmaker. But because he's just 6'2", 230 pounds, Brown is difficult to project to the NFL.

    Playing on an immensely talented defense, Brown managed to stand out. Few linebackers possess better speed, and Brown flows to the ball effortlessly.

    Brown does occasionally struggle to get off blocks, but he's great in coverage and does an excellent job in the open field.

    Bust Odds:  35 percent

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

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    6'5", 350-pounders shouldn't move like Dontari Poe does. Few players are more talented, and Poe has the ability to dominate in the NFL.

    Like many insanely-talented players, Poe underachieved a bit in college. At Memphis, Poe never dominated like he should have, and much of his draft stock is based off projection.

    Bust Odds: 40 percent

25. Denver Broncos: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

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    Mark Barron is the rare one-dimensional safety that will likely be drafted in the first round. As his 6'2", 218-pound frame suggests, Barron is best against the run and has limited range.

    In today's NFL, safeties need to be able to play both the run and pass. Only time will tell if Barron is strong enough against the run to make up for his lack of coverage ability.

    Bust Odds: 35 percent

26. Houston Texans: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

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    A 6'3", 235-pound wideout, Alshon Jeffery was highly praised prior to the 2011 season. In 2011, however, Jeffery looked fat, slow and sluggish.

    The South Carolina star still has phenomenal hands and catching ability, but he struggles to separate at times. In fact, Seattle's Mike Williams is a legitimate comparison for Jeffery and represents all that could go wrong.

    Bust Odds: 50 percent

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

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    Inconsistency is the life and death of Stephon Gilmore. At times, Gilmore looks like a top-10 draft pick. At other times, he looks like he shouldn't even be drafted.

    On the whole, Gilmore can play in man or zone coverage. This means that scheme won't end his career, and only his own skills will. 

    That still doesn't give Gilmore the best odds.

    Bust Odds: 35 percent

28. Green Bay Packers: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

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    An already-capable receiver and blocker, Lamar Miller is ready to play in the NFL. The Miami star is incredibly fast and is a terrific playmaker out of the backfield. His versatility is key on many levels.

    Weighing 212 pounds, Miller should be able to withstand the beating he will face in the NFl. However, Miller isn't great running inside, and he isn't overly powerful either.

    Bust Odds: 10 percent

29. Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

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    Like most centers, Peter Konz is a pretty safe prospect if you look at his on-field play. The 6'5", 315-pounder is powerful at the point of attack and can move in space as well.

    Konz's issue is staying on the field. The Wisconsin product has had chronic ankle problems that could remain an obstacle in the future. Maurkice Pouncey has already proven that the lower leg can be a huge issue for a center.

    Bust Odds: 15 percent

30. San Francisco 49ers: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

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    Mohamed Sanu is one of the most versatile players in the country. The 6'2", 215-pound Sanu has played running back, return man, wide receiver and even safety. NFL teams love that.

    As a wide receiver, Sanu isn't exactly a game-breaker. He can catch the football and gain yards with the ball in his hands, but he isn't a great deep threat. 

    In the best case scenario, Sanu develops into a solid but unspectacular player. In the worst case scenario, he isn't explosive enough to make it as a starter.

    Bust Odds: 30 percent

31. New England Patriots: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

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    At 6'5", 310 pounds, Devon Still possesses perfect size for a defensive lineman. The Penn State star is versatile enough to play defensive tackle in a 4-3 scheme or defensive end in a 3-4 defense.

    Still's best attribute is his power, and he does a tremendous job of driving back offensive linemen. An above-average athlete, Still has a good first step and is solid as a pass-rusher.

    Still has always been talented, but he has had issues with his work ethic and motor. If he's motivated, he can become a good starting defensive lineman in the NFL.

    And that's not a small if either.

    Bust Odds: 40 percent

32. New York Giants: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

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    Jonathan Martin is a finesse tackle who lacks the quickness to handle speedy pass-rushers.

    That's an issue.

    Andrew Luck's left tackle is a good athlete, but his footwork is not good at all. This would be manageable if Martin were a powerful player, but he's not. The Stanford product weighs just 6'5", 310 pounds and struggles at the point of attack. 

    However, if Martin is unable to make it at tackle, he can move inside to guard. Martin is quick enough to move in the second level and strong enough to provide some push.

    Bust Odds: 30 percent