Bills Toxic Differential Tells Story

We’ve heard for years that turnovers are a critical factor that often determines the outcome of games. Bills fans saw it play a big role in the team’s slide out of playoff contention in 2011 as Buffalo went from a plus-8 in the turnover category in the first half of the season to a minus-7 in the second half. But according to former NFL head coaches Brian Billick and Jim Mora that’s only half of a more popular indicator that has gained credibility in determining playoff success the last few years.

The more recent statistic that’s been used to gauge a team’s success in reaching the playoffs is called toxic differential. It measures number of explosive plays by a team’s offense (any play 20 yards or more) against explosive plays against a team’s defense. That differential is then added to a team’s turnover differential to obtain the team’s toxic differential.

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