Yu Darvish: 4 Bold Predictions for Rookie's First Season in Texas

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Japanese sensation Yu Darvish will be in the Texas Rangers' rotation in 2012. When and in what order he pitches is of no relevance. No matter what, he'll be wearing red on the mound at the Ballpark in Arlington.

The Rangers spent a record $111.7 million to negotiate with and sign Darvish to a six-year contract that includes an opt-out clause after five seasons. 

His final season in Japan was outstanding: an 18-6 record, 1.44 ERA and 276 strikeouts for the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 232 innings. 

He will be pitching with large expectations in 2012. Here are four bold predictions for his first season in Texas. 

Two Stints on the 15-Day DL

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Call me a skeptic, but if you're new to the country and spend the summer in Texas, it's rough getting used to the climate. Heck, if you live in Missouri and move to Texas, the summer is an adjustment period.

One of the reasons the Rangers seem to like Darvish is his durability. Amassing 164 games by the age of 25, he has shown an ability to stay healthy and pitch his day in the rotation. But the blistering heat in Arlington, combined with the bigger ball and having one fewer day between starts than he had in Japan, will land him a spot on the disabled list twice. 

I don't think it necessarily will be a bad thing. If you look at his start totals in Japan the last three seasons (23, 25, 28), missing 2-4 starts in a 15-day span would put him right at that threshold. 

Darvish Will Win 12 Games or Less

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As a result of that time on the DL, I don't see Darvish winning any more than 12 games in 2012. If he makes 24-26 starts, 12 is a solid number. 

Remember, the Rangers don't need him to be the Cy Young candidate. Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison can anchor the rotation. They have two years of regular and postseason experience. 

If he can win about half his starts, he'll have a taste of the poise and pitch selection it takes to be elite, specifically since Texas plans on him being a huge part of any postseason success they might have. 

An ERA Under 3.25

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Two DL stints, only 12 wins and an ERA under 3.25? That's right, all part of the bold predictions.

Hitters haven't seen his pitch selection yet. There is limited film and pitch documentation, so it seems  hitters are going to have to take it on a game-by-game basis, at least until he makes a few starts.

I think Darvish is going to be really good, or really bad. He might come out against the Oakland A's and strike out 11 in seven innings. He could turn around and give up four home runs at home to the Seattle Mariners.

You never know, but I think his strong starts will outweigh the weak ones and land him a spot in the top ERA rankings of 2012. It's hard to bet against Mike and Greg Maddux not having a positive impact on a pitcher, so why start now?

But the big prediction is yet to come.

Darvish Will Start Game 1 of the ALDS

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Add it up and here are a few of my splits for Darvish's first season:

Starts: 24-26 

Wins: 12

ERA: sub-3.25

SO: 175 (a freebie prediction for those of you paying attention)

That's an average season for someone worth more than $100 million. However, I still think Darvish takes the hill in Game 1 of the ALDS, assuming the Rangers can reach that plateau for a third straight season.

Texas needs an ace to go toe-to-toe with Chris Carpenter, CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett. GM Jon Daniels knows that, which is why he spent two years scouting and recruiting one of the best he could find. 

Darvish's talent has been documented in Japan, and the Rangers made a striking investment in translating that talent to MLB.

My guess is that his talent wins out when filling out the postseason rotation order, and the Rangers rely on it to get them a World Series title in 2012.