Milwaukee Brewers: 7 Projections for 2012 Offense Without Prince Fielder

The bat of Corey Hart may provide part of the Brewers answer in 2012 without Prince Fielder.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The Milwaukee Brewers fanbase has become one of the most dedicated and passionate in Major League Baseball. 

With the tandem of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, fans came out in droves to see Milwaukee's best batch of sluggers since Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews.

Now that Fielder has cashed in his "beast mode" as a Tiger, many fans wonder how the offense will react without the big fella hitting cleanup.

It's quite possible no team has had to replace a 50-home run hitter so young in his career, causing many alarms in Brew Crew Nation.

Will Fielder's loss create a domino effect, reducing the offensive output of the other sluggers?  Will the addition of Aramis Ramirez protect Braun and enable opportunities for others like Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart?

This article takes a swing at projecting the 2012 post-Fielder offense and how seven key individuals will perform for the Brewers.

The method used to come up with these figures includes a raw blend of conventional projection data, gut feeling, player character and style.  Keep in mind, my limited "crystal ball" is one that emphasizes intangibles as being a major indicator of a player's future success or failure.

Let's take a look at the Brewers' potential lineup for 2012, projections for each player and a brief explanation for my modified projections.

The Wild-Card, Non-Slugger Types

As one of the most under-appreciated pieces of the Brewers lineup, Lucroy's role will be important for the Brewers in 2012.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Since the 1990s and 2000s, fans have become accustomed to mammoth home runs defining whether a team has a potent offense or not.  The Brewers certainly embodied this long-ball mentality via Doug Melvin's philosophy, which he brought over from Texas during the Prince Fielder years.

That said, times may be changing. 

Offensive indicators league-wide show less runs per game. In recent years, the World Series victory of the pitching-heavy San Francisco Giants proved especially pivotal in demonstrating how teams can win with or without the long ball as a focus. It showed that teams can still contend and thrive with small ball and good defense.

For the 2012 Brewers, Ron Roenicke is likely to further embody the Mike Scioscia style of play.  At its most basic, Roenicke is a believer in winning in a variety of ways, more so than Yost or Macha demonstrated as previous Brewers skippers. 

Last year, plays like Johnathan Lucroy's suicide squeeze bunt for the win on May 28th against the Giants may have been a foreshadowing of what's to come more frequently for the new Brew Crew.

With that in mind, here are three non-slugger bats in the order (with projections), whose contributions will be important for 2012.  Note empty cells suggest no significant difference between FanGraphs' projections and my gut feeling.

 

Johnathan Lucroy

	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011 Stats	136	430	45	114	16	1	12	59	29	99	2	.265	.313	.391	.703
2012 FanGraphs Projection	134	495	58	132	20	1	12	58	38	98	4	.267	.320	.384	.704
My Prediction							*15	63				.270

Explanation:  As Lucroy gets more and more comfortable as a starting receiver, I think his power production will improve into the 15 HR club.

 

Norichika Aoki

Since Aoki has no MLB experience, and FanGraphs has no projections for him currently, I'm just going to take a stab at it on my own.

	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Writer's Prediction	115	300	40	90	18	2	1	40	32	45	9	.300	.367	.453	.820

Explanation: The doubles are what is affecting the OPS so greatly, but I think Aoki will have occasional gap power combined with the speed to turn many singles into doubles.  This would be an ideal scenario for Aoki's role if Braun is out.  The amount of at-bats is based on the premise of Aoki starting roughly 50 games and subbing in some 65 games.

 

Nyjer Morgan

	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011 Stats	119	378	61	115	20	6	4	37	19	70	13	.304	.357	.421	.778
2012 FanGraphs Projection	128	540	69	154	19	6	2	58	35	88	23	.285	.343	.354	.697
2012 Writer's Prediction						8			30			.280

Explanation: No major changes from what FanGraphs suggests.  I agree with the idea that Morgan's .300 BA will dip a bit in 2012, not because Morgan will flop, but more because he was well beyond expectations last year in that regard.  Expect more discipline on the basepaths, too.

Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart: Can We Expect Steady Production and Health?

Weeks is a versatile piece of the Brewers lineup, bringing intensity, immense power and speed to the basepaths.
Scott Boehm/Getty Images

You've got to love Rickie Weeks for going all out, pedal-to-the-metal every play.  Playing with extraordinary spark can often ignite the players around you to perform at a higher level.

That said, many fans get frustrated by Weeks' injury history. 

From the persistent wrist injuries Weeks seemed to get earlier in his career due to having such a high-torque swing, to last year's twisted ankle on a hard-fought attempt to beat the throw at first base, Weeks has missed a lot of time over the years.

I have little doubt in my mind that a full season of Weeks could mean he's the National League MVP.  He is one of two second basemen (fellow Central Division foe Brandon Phillips of the Reds being the other) who can offer such immense offensive output.

The tough question is, can we expect Weeks to be healthy all year?  My projection assumes we should go with past history to a degree, while also hoping for an overall healthy year (hence the 140 games played in the projection). 

Weeks' style may result in a few short stints where he needs to recover, which will have an impact on the team's offensive production.  The guy is on the cusp of being known as one of the best hitters in the majors, and this will be the year to show it's for real year-round.

Rickie Weeks	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011 Results	118	453	77	122	26	2	20	49	50	107	9	.269	.350	.468	.818
2012 FanGraphs Projection	135	535	85	145	29	3	23	85	60	128	12	.271	.359	.465	.825
2012 My prediction	140	555	90	160	33	3	28	96	64	128	20	.288	.362	.610	.972

 

As for Corey Hart, the man has achieved multiple seasons, proving he's capable of above-average (and at times, spectacular) offensive numbers. But Hart may epitomize the definition of a streaky hitter.  

Hart has been atop MLB home run totals, at one point making him seem like a rising star with an incredible ceiling.  At other times, Hart has been in slumps and forced to a platoon role.

My take: Hart is an emotional player.  He's not approaching the game with a Ted Williams-like scientific mentality, nor is he a slouch unwilling to try to improve.  He has to play with heart (pardon the pun) and fire, much like a lot of this Brewers roster, resulting in times of bounty alongside times of frustration.

That said, this is the year for Hart to show the world he can put his great offensive skill set to consistent use and become known as a premier player in the league.

Corey Hart	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011 Results	130	492	80	140	25	4	26	63	51	114	7	.285	.356	.510	.866
2012 FanGraphs Projection	140	559	82	156	29	4	27	92	52	124	7	.279	.344	.490	.834
2012 My Prediction	153	610	84	170	38	6	32	100	52	118	20	.279	.334	.518	.852

Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez brings a power bat who can also hit for on-base percentage to the Brewers lineup.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

On the upside, Aramis Ramirez brings a mature veteran's presence to a fun Milwaukee club.  When Ramirez delivers his typical numbers, he's a very solid offensive option to put in the middle of the lineup.

 

Here's Ramirez's 2011 stat line:

G	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WRC
149	626	26	80	93	1	6.9 %	11.0 %	.204	.308	.306	.361	.510	.373	133

On the downside, Ramirez will be 34 before the All-Star break this year and battled injuries in 2009 and 2010.  Coming in as a free agent amid Fielder's departure only puts added pressure on Ramirez.

As for my prediction: Ramirez's career is not one full of injuries, and I think the vet will endure just fine with a few games off here and there. 

I believe he's coming to a team with more offensive firepower (even without Prince Fielder) than he had as the rebuilding Cubs' featured slugger.  Surrounded in the order by guys who are going to slug more than 20 home runs and keep a fairly good on-base percentage, Ramirez will thrive in Milwaukee in 2012.

 

FanGraphs 2012 Prediction

	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	ABG	SLG	OPS	wOBA	UZR	WAR
Aramis Ramirez	133	533	153	28	1	22	72	88	40	81	7	1	.287	.341	.467	.808	.348	-7.0

 

My Prediction

Aramis Ramirez	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	130	522	150	28	0	25	75	90	40	84	2	.287	.336	.485	.821

Ryan Braun: Comparing a Likely Suspension Versus a Full Season

Ryan Braun hopes to emerge from the shadows of the suspension ordeal on fire.
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Ryan Braun's 2011 Output:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS

150

629

563

109

187

38

6

33

111

33

6

58

93

.332

.397

.597

.994

The reigning National League MVP may be headed for a bizarre and ill-fated suspension depending on what the MLB decides in the coming days.  Needless to say, Braun is the heart and soul of the Brewers lineup now and into the future through Braun's 35th birthday and then some.

Since Braun's "wins against replacement" value was 7.8 in 2011 and a 50-game suspension would take Braun out of the lineup for roughly 30 percent of the season, I'm going to postulate that if Braun is suspended, it will cost the Brewers at least two wins during his suspension.  That's the sheer mathematical likelihood of it.

But factoring in a subjective sense of leadership qualities and the offensive abilities Braun displays that allow his teammates to thrive, I'm going to go out on a limb and say, if Braun is suspended, it will cost the Brewers six wins they'd otherwise have gotten from Braun's presence.

Six wins can mean a lot in a division that is basically up-for-grabs this year.

My prediction is: Braun is not suspended.

Why?  If his case were so cut-and-dry as advertised, it wouldn't have taken the MLB so long to make an official decision.  Wouldn't everyone want a good, clean-cut verdict declared early so all parties could make amends as necessary? 

I could banter many sides to this issue, but none of us know for sure until the MLB makes its case, and this piece is focused on projections rather than Braun's eventual status.

For projections' sake, let's take a look at what I predict Braun's offensive output stats will be for 2012 if given a full season. 

G		AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB		BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS

158    595  112 200   42   6    35    112    28    58   108   .336   .393   .603  .996

The numbers are based largely on the fact that Braun seems to continue to develop as a hitter and may be the most adroit pure hitter in baseball today. 

Some say that pitchers figure young hitters out over time, but I think in Braun's case, the longer he's in the league, the more dangerous he will become.

No Power Outage in Sight: Relax, Brewer Nation

Miller Park promises to remain a spirited baseball venue in 2012.
Scott Boehm/Getty Images

After profiling the key Brewers starters on offense, it's clear to see that Milwaukee remains a strong hitting team. (Note: I let Alex Gonzalez be mainly a defensive upgrade, since he likely won't be much different than Yuniesky Betancourt on offense.)

Will the Brewers be the top team in slugging?  Probably not, but they won't be anywhere near the bottom, either.

As a whole unit, the way things stand now, I think this team still has a reasonable shot at 90-plus wins. 

I don't think they'll beat the franchise record of 96 wins set last year, but considering that a few variables could have gone the Brewers' way last year to be even better (i.e. no off-field Zack Greinke injury, no Rickie Weeks or Ryan Braun injuries), it wouldn't shock me if the Brewers finish 2012 with 90-95 wins.

One interesting decision manager Ron Roenicke will have to make is where to put Corey Hart and Weeks in the lineup. 

It's likely a given that Ramirez and Braun form the No. 3 and No. 4 (though that could be debated, too), but Hart and Weeks are both speedy sluggers who could thrive in a variety of spots in the order, making it essential for Roenicke to discover early on what the best lineups are.

If I'm not mistaken, Hart has been in nearly every slot in the lineup except No. 8 and No. 9 over his career.  In Weeks' case, though, he's been a leadoff hitter for much of his career, and many argue that his power could be better utilized in the No. 3, 4 or 5 slot now that Prince Fielder is gone.

With these projections in mind, what is your prediction for the Brewers offense? 

Which players will underwhelm, and which will exceed expectations?  What do you see the Brewers' regular lineup looking like in 2012?