Setting the 2012 Over-Under Win Total for Every New Head Coach's First Season

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For even the best coaches in the business, the first year as a head coach at a new program is almost always the hardest.

After all, each coach has to depend on players recruited by someone else—often by a coach that got himself fired. He has to get things turned around at a program that, too often, isn't used to winning.

But, some coaches have it easier during year one than others. 

So, how many games will each new head man win in year one? Read on.

Terry Bowden, Akron

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It's been a while since Terry Bowden last coached at the FBS level, but he's had some success recently at Northern Alabama.

Bowden faces a mess at Akron. The Zips didn't beat a single FBS team last year. I wouldn't expect any first-year miracles, but I expect some improvement, as Akron can't get much worse.

Over/Under: 3

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona

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It didn't take long for Rich Rodriguez to land a new job after his disappointing run at Michigan.

I wouldn't expect miracles from RichRod just yet if I were a Wildcats fan, though. He's got quite a job ahead of him to rebuild this program.

If only Nick Foles were still here...

Over/Under: 4

Todd Graham, Arizona State

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I wonder how much trust Todd Graham's new team is going to give him after what he just did to his old players at Pitt. The guy has already shown that he'll leave town at the drop of a hat for greener pastures.

Ironic that those pastures are in the deserts of Arizona.

I don't see a bowl game in the Sun Devils' future this year, but they'll come close...

Over/Under: 5

Gus Malzahn, Arkansas State

It was only a matter of time before Gus Malzahn took a head-coaching job, but many didn't expect him to take the Arkansas State job.

Still, the fact that Michael Dyer is following him is encouraging, although it is still unclear if Dyer will be able to play or not in 2012 due to transfer rules.

Regardless of whether or not Dyer plays, the Red Wolves still have QB Ryan Aplin. And don't forget that the last dual-threat QB Malzahn coached was one Cam Newton...

Over/Under: 9

Jim McElwain, Colorado State

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Jim McElwain did an impressive job in preparing A.J. McCarron and the Alabama offense for LSU in the BCS National Championship Game.

But, it's going to take some time to build Colorado State into much more than a 3-9 program.

Over/Under: 4

Carl Pelini, FAU

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Carl Pelini has his work cut out for him at FAU. The Owls managed to win only one game last year.

And with games against Florida, Michigan State and Auburn coming up this year, Pelini may miss working for his brother at Nebraska...

Over/Under: 3

Tim DeRuyter, Fresno State

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Following a legend is the hardest thing to do as a head coach in college football. Pat "Anytime, Anywhere, Anytime" Hill was the heart and soul of the Bulldogs for 15 years.

Tim DeRuyter is a great defensive mind, and Fresno State needs him. But, one year isn't enough time to get this program back to good health.

Over/Under: 5

Norm Chow, Hawaii

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Finally, Norm Chow has a head-coaching job, and Hawaii is an excellent fit for this pass-happy coach.

Too bad Bryant Moniz was a senior last season...

Over/Under: 6

Tony Levine, Houston

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Tony Levine had a great audition as the head man against Penn State in the TicketCity Bowl, which is why he's now the head coach. 

But, how well can we expect Houston to do without Case Keenum? 

Well, at least he has one year left in C-USA to figure all that out before having to face Big East competition...

Over/Under: 6

Tim Beckman, Illinois

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Tim Beckman's first year at Illinois is going to be anything but easy. He's got games at Wisconsin, at Michigan and at Ohio State.

Yikes.

Over/Under: 4

Charlie Weis, Kansas

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I'm not sold on Charlie Weis as a head coach. After all, if you can't make it happen at a place with the resources Notre Dame has, how can you win championships at a basketball school like Kansas?

Still, Kansas will be a better team with Weis on the sideline. Really, they couldn't get much worse...

Over/Under: 4

Justin Fuente, Memphis

Justin Fuente helped build an impressive offense at defensive-minded TCU, but that's nothing compared to the mess he's walking into at Memphis. 

I'm somewhat optimistic that Fuente can get something good going for the Tigers, but it's going to take more than one year to see those results.

Over/Under: 4

Charley Molnar, UMass

UMass is about to make the difficult transition from the FCS to the FBS, and they've got a new head coach to help them.

Year one is still going to be a bumpy ride...

Over/Under: 2

Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss

Hugh Freeze deserves a lot of credit for winning the Sun Belt. But, he's going from the weakest FBS conference to the strongest division in college football in the SEC West.

I hope he's ready for the challenge...

Over/Under: 3

Bob Davie, New Mexico

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Bob Davie is walking into the most messed-up program in college football.

Best of luck to him...

Over/Under: 2

Larry Fedora, North Carolina

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North Carolina was resilient in 2011 after losing their head coach mere weeks before the season began. Larry Fedora is walking into a better program than most this year.

Of course, the Tar Heels also have a favorable schedule in 2012...

Over/Under: 7

Urban Meyer, Ohio State

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If it weren't for the fact that Ohio State is under NCAA sanctions, I'd be tempted to pick the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten now that Urban Meyer is the head coach.

Still, Ohio State is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Over/Under: 9

Bill O'Brien, Penn State

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Penn State is the kind of job that normally everyone would be falling all over themselves to get.

Not so much this year under these circumstances.

Bill O'Brien is going to miss the Patriots this season...

Over/Under: 6

Paul Chryst, Pitt

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How many coaches will it take to get Pitt turned around?

Personally, I think that Paul Chryst really is the right man for the job. But, when a coach packs up and leaves after just one year like Todd Graham just did, it's going to take some doing to rebuild these young players' trust.

Over/Under: 4

Kyle Flood, Rutgers

Greg Schiano proved that you can have winning seasons and win bowl games at Rutgers. 

Can assistant-turned-head-coach Kyle Flood continue Schiano's winning ways? 

Sure.

Over/Under: 7

Ellis Johnson, Southern Miss

Southern Miss is the strongest program in C-USA not to get an invite from the Big East.

Ellis Johnson has a tough non-conference schedule (at Nebraska and home against Boise State), but Johnson should do fine in his debut as a head man in the FBS.

Fine, but not great.

Over/Under: 6

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M

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The Aggies dumped Mike Sherman and picked up Kevin Sumlin to help their transition between the Big 12 and the SEC.

News flash: Nothing is going to make Texas A&M's transition to the SEC West "smooth."

Over/Under: 4

Matt Campbell, Toledo

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The Toledo offense has been pretty good under Matt Campbell as offensive coordinator. I expect the Rockets' winning ways in the MAC to continue.

Over/Under: 7

Curtis Johnson, Tulane

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Curtis Johnson has a favorable schedule, but he's inheriting one of the weakest programs in the FBS.

Still, he should be able to pick up some wins along the way...

Over/Under: 4

Garrick McGee, UAB

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Garrick McGee has to build a program completely under the thumb of the University of Alabama Board of Trustees, and said board doesn't seem too interested in UAB's success in football. 

McGee seems to have the cards stacked against him.

Over/Under: 2

Jim Mora, UCLA

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After wisely deciding to leave the NFL, Jim Mora still won't have it easy at UCLA. 

Word to the wise: Don't go around saying that the football monopoly in LA is over until after you manage to beat USC...

Over/Under: 5

Mike Leach, Washington State

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Mike Leach has his pirate ship ready to plunder coming out of Washington State, but it's been an awful long time since the Cougars have done anything worthwhile.

Give Leach time; a program that's won only nine games over the last four years under Paul Wulff isn't going to win championships overnight—even if the likes of Nick Saban took the helm.

Over/Under: 6