Josh Koscheck is coming off of a huge victory over Matt Hughes at UFC 135 in what was his return fight after recovering from injury.
Koscheck was supposed to face another top five welterweight in Carlos Condit, but due to the shakeup of the division, Koscheck now finds himself in a fight he can't lose.
For Koscheck to lose tonight, it would take him to be off his game. Koscheck is agile and strong enough to stop the takedowns of Pierce and standing, he holds an advantage over Pierce.
With that kind of advantage, it gives Koscheck an easier game plan and he can open up standing and then get the takedown later on in the round. He can shoot right away or he can keep the fight standing and give Pierce the slight chance to win.
Koscheck will be able to take down Pierce and grind out any energy and any will he has.
Also in the few opening minutes, he could land some power punches to daze Pierce, who has yet to be finished in his MMA career.
Tonight, Koscheck just needs to avoid the upset and a lucky Pierce. If Koscheck can avoid any power punches or a stupid mistake that ends up with him in some sort of submission or bad position, Koscheck should take the easy victory.
Pierce is used to being the underdog and having never lost a fight by being finished, it makes the fight tough for Koscheck.
Koscheck is a tough wrestler, though, and should be able to wade through the early going.