The fight will be a light middleweight championship fight, at the full 154 pound divisional limit. I think this fight will be much better, and closer, than many are giving it credit for. So, here are five predictions for the upcoming fight between Mayweather and Cotto.
Over the years, Floyd Mayweather has gotten a rap for being sub-par in the entertainment category. His fights are usually one-sided victories that go the distance, as he seemingly has his opponents ready to be taken out but neglects to open up enough to close the show.
Miguel Cotto, on the other hand, is one of the more entertaining fighters that we've seen in recent years. All of his fights are thrilling and he always goes for the finish if he can. Simply put, any fight Miguel Cotto is in is can't miss and is sure to be an entertaining one.
Now, how will the boxing style of Mayweather mix with Cotto's tendency to trade and throw hard power shots? I think that, based of the Mayweather-Ortiz fight, that this one should be a good scrap. Mayweather showed that he isn't afraid to trade with a strong puncher, and he's already stated he wants to go toe to toe with Cotto in a Cotto-style fight.
If Floyd and Miguel stand in the center of the ring and trade power punches, which they will, it should be a memorable night in Las Vegas.
This prediction isn't really based off of anything concrete, but for some reason I really feel Miguel Cotto is going to drop Floyd in this fight. Floyd showed he can be hurt when he was rocked badly by Shane Mosley in May of 2009, and Cotto has strong enough power to hurt him.
However, I don't think Floyd will be dropped by a head punch. Years ago, many boxing analysts said that Miguel Cotto was perhaps the fiercest body puncher they'd ever seen. He could really bang to the body in a way that was absolutely debilitating to his opponents. I think Cotto is going to focus on the body in this fight and will drop Floyd with a hook to the liver.
On a side note, that's the only way Cotto can win. He has to use his size advantage, which should be about 15 pounds by fight time, to bully Floyd to the ropes and hurt him to the body and head and punish him when he can. He has to have a high work rate and has to be able to walk through what Floyd offers in return if he wants a chance. I think the fight being a 154 pounds, a weight class Floyd has only made a foray into once before, is a strong advantage for Miguel.
When the fight was announced, a boxing expert that I'm acquainted with, Todd O'Connell, told me that Floyd is going to walk right through Cotto and will either stop him or shut him out and win an easy fight. I whole-heartedly disagree with that sentiment. Cotto looked excellent in his last fight against Antonio Margarito, and he should have a lot of confidence coming into this fight.
Floyd on the other hand has a lot of distractions on his plate. His beef with his dad surely doesn't help, but mainly his upcoming jail sentence has to be weighing heavily on his mind. Wouldn't you be worried if shortly after one of the biggest fights of your career you had to report to serve a three month prison sentence?
Floyd's shown that he can deal with distractions in the past, so this likely won't be a huge factor. But if Floyd is an A+ fighter, Cotto is an A fighter. Cotto is very talented and will find a way to make this a real fight, and he will push Floyd, perhaps farther than he's every been pushed before as a professional. I see this fight coming down to the wire and that it will be on the table come the championship rounds.
I love knockouts as much as every other boxing fan, but in this fight I really don't see anyone getting knocked out before the final bell. Mayweather and Cotto have both shown durability and the ability to take a punch. Floyd doesn't have the power to knock Cotto out, and while Cotto possesses solid power, he won't be able to hit Floyd cleanly with a punch he doesn't see in order to score the knockout.
The only way I could picture this fight not going the distance is if Cotto catches Floyd with a hard left hook to the body that Floyd doesn't see. While unlikely, it's not out of the question. Cotto has scored numerous body shot knockouts and he'll look to set up hard hooks to the body.
While I believe it will go the distance, I still think it will be a tough, grueling fight for both guys as I've already stated, and it will definitely be a fun one to watch.
As painful as it is for me to say it, I think that Floyd Mayweather will defeat Miguel Cotto come May 5th. I've been a Cotto fan for his entire career and I will be rooting hard for him during the fight, but I think that Floyd will get it done by a close, perhaps split decision in Vegas.
Cotto is definitely going to make a great fight out of it and he's going to push and maybe even hurt Floyd in this fight, but I think Floyd will edge him out. There will be a very strong Puerto Rican presence in the crowd, and they'll carry Cotto through the tough moments, but in the end he'll lose.
Look for a fight that elevates both fighters due to their performances. A fight that is entertaining, possibly shows Cotto knock Mayweather down, but lasts the full 12 round distance. It's not Mayweather-Pacquiao, but it's a good solid fight and I'm looking forward to it.