Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Predictions

Jake WestrichSenior Writer IFebruary 1, 2012

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 02:  XX Kelly Clarkson performs before the 2011 NRL Grand Final match between the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles and the Warriors at ANZ Stadium on October 2, 2011 in Sydney, Australia.  (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images

The Super Bowl consistently cranks out massive viewership, evidenced by 162.9 million people watching last year's Packers-Steelers showdown. And yet, the game frequently turns into a subpar match.

Clearly, the masses aren't tuning in just to watch the football festivities.

What's the draw, then? The halftime show? Madonna hasn't been relevant in 20 years.

Maybe to watch the entertaining commercials? Newsflash—thanks to YouTube, you can see what everyone's talking about (probably a beer spot) 40 times the following day.

So if it's not the game, halftime show or commercials, what is driving this audience?

By the process of elimination, one can deduce that the plethora of prop bets is the catalyst for this programming. And why not?

Where else can you turn a profit by betting on someone to botch the National Anthem?

Name one other event that generates more conversation about the accrual of penalty yards. And don't get us started on the coin flip.

The NFL simulation engine has been working overtime, digging into the numbers to reveal who has the edge in the Super Bowl XLVI prop bets:

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets
Prop Bet Vegas Odds WIS Prediction
Coin Flip Heads (-105)
Tails (-105)
Heads - 50.15%
Clarkson's National Anthem 1 minute, 34 seconds 1 minute, 35 seconds
Gatorade Shower Color Clear/Water (2/1) Clear/Water - 68.4%

Yellow (2/1)

Orange (9/4)

Red (11/2)

Green (6/1)

Blue (10/1)
Peyton Manning Sightings O/U - (3.5) Over - 4
Gisele Bundchen Sightings O/U - (0.5) Under - 0



Prop Bet Analysis


Coin Flip - Through 45 Super Bowls, "tails" holds the slightest edge, landing right-side up on 23 occasions. Don't count out "heads" though, which is riding a three-game winning streak and has turned up 22 times overall. A coin flip is a 50/50 proposition, and I like that statement to ring truer than ever with a nod to "heads" this year.

Clarkson's National Anthem - Kelly Clarkson is no stranger to the big stage, performing the National Anthem at both the 2010 World Series and the 2011 NBA Finals. In both instances, she finished in approximately 1 minute, 33 seconds, making this a tough prop bet. However, given the magnitude of the event, I'm inclined to believe she can milk this thing for an additional two seconds. I'll take the over.

Gatorade Shower Color - Orange Gatorade has been a hot item, dousing the last two Super Bowl coaches. However, clear/water was the drink of choice on four consecutive occasions from 2005 through 2008. That streak included both Bill Belichick (2005) and Tom Coughlin (2008). I'll wager that the Patriots' and Giants' penchant for clear/water hasn't changed since then.

Peyton Manning Sightings - Manning has stacked the deck in his favor to earn some serious time in the limelight during the Super Bowl. First, there's the ongoing speculation about his career, both if it will continue and what team he could play for next. Adding to Manning's marketability is the location of the Super Bowl—Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is his home turf. Finally, younger brother Eli's pursuit of a second Super Bowl victory—one more than Peyton—is sure to earn some face time.

Gisele Bundchen Sightings - If the game turns into a blowout, Bundchen will be sitting pretty to earn some TV time. Alas, this one is projected to be close the whole way. I like her chances of making an appearance during the postgame celebration—perhaps on the arm of beau Tom Brady during his MVP ceremony—but the Vegas odds dictate her appearance must be between the kickoff and final whistle.


Our NFL Simulation engine's 1,001 Super Bowl XLVI simulations also generated predictions for the following in-game prop bets.

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets
Prop Bet Vegas Odds WIS Prediction
Score First Patriots (-105) Patriots - 50.7%

Giants (-125)
Score First TD Patriots Patriots - 50.7%

First Player TD Ahmad Bradshaw 11.4%

Victor Cruz 10.4%

Wes Welker 10.0%

BenJarvus Green-Ellis 9.6%

Rob Gronkowski 8.4%

Brandon Jacobs 7.2%

Deion Branch 7.0%

Danny Woodhead 7.0%
Over/Under (55.0) Over - (-110) Under - 60.3%

Under - (-110)
Super Bowl XLV MVP Ahmad Bradshaw (20/1) 4.2%

Aaron Hernandez (16/1) 0.6%

Wes Welker (15/1) 3.2%

Hakeem Nicks (12/1) 0.2%

Rob Gronkowski (10/1) 0.4%

Victor Cruz (8/1) 0.6%

Eli Manning (9/4) 28.7%

Tom Brady (7/5) 53.5%
 Average Score After Each Quarter
Team First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
New York Giants 4.8 7.7 4.6 7.8
New England Patriots 5.0 9.0 4.6 8.2

Simulate Super Bowl XLVI

Most Common Score After Each Quarter
Team First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
New York Giants 7 14 17 24
New England Patriots 7 17 20 27

Simulate Super Bowl XLVI

 Chance to Score
Team Last Two Minutes of First Half Last Two Minutes of Game
New York Giants 48.9% 35.9%
New England Patriots 56.9% 33.7%

Note: The odds that either team will score in the "Last Two Minutes of the First Half" are:
Yes (-290) No (+230). This prop bet accounts for both teams.



With Super Bowl XLVI being your last taste of football for the next seven months, is here with your daily fix. Create your ultimate Super Bowl roster using our Dream Teams feature. Take that roster and simulate it against ANY OTHER NFL TEAM IN HISTORY using our NFL SimMatchup tool.


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