National Lacrosse League 2012: Week 4 Preview and Predictions
photo from laxallstars.com
It’s that time of the week again—preview time!
The National Lacrosse League play coming into Week 4 has been the most exciting that I can recall. There has been a huge increase in goal scoring due to the new rules, a huge team vs. team scrap, the resurgence in Colorado and near panic in Toronto.
This week we are looking at a full slate with six games over two days. With that being said, let’s preview what could happen this week around the NLL.
Rochester Knighthawks (1-1) vs. Toronto Rock (0-2)
The Knighthawks take on the Rock on Friday, Jan. 27, at 7 p.m. in Toronto.
This is a huge game for the Rock as they desperately need to break into the win column. The defending champs have started the 2012 tilt with a couple disappointing losses. This team needs to show that they are not going to have a Champions Cup hangover this year.
They are a proud NLL franchise so I think they should bounce back this year.
Colin Doyle needs to take this team under his wing and continue to produce. In the net, Matt Roik is boasting a 12.50 GAA% which needs to come down for the team to succeed. There are enough offensive players for the Rock to succeed but when a team is down the defense needs to make sure the score is as well.
The defensive also needs to guard against the potent Knighthawks offense that put up 22 goals in their season opener versus the Philadelphia Wings.
Who do you got?
The Knighthawks will also be looking to rebound against the Rock after their first loss of the season to the Bandits.
The Knighthawks have been paced by Cody Jamieson and Mike Accursi on the offensive side of the floor. Look for those players to continue to produce.
Matt Vinc will look to try to keep the Rock under his 11.30 GAA in this game. If he can do this, look for the Knighthawks to have a great chance on Friday.
My Prediction is that the Rock will finally break into the win column with a 13-10 win against the Knighthawks.
Buffalo Bandits (2-0) vs. Philadelphia Wings (1-1)
This game will take place on Friday, January 27th at 7:30 pm in Buffalo, NY.
Both the Bandits and Wings will come into the game with momentum as they both had wins in Week 3. The Wings won an overtime thriller against the Stealth 10-9 on their home floor. The Bandits beat the Knighthawks to improve to 2-0.
I bet you can guess who the Bandits' leading scorer is. If you guess John Tavares you, of course, are right. Tavares has put up 16 points with six goals in the first two games of the year.
If the Wings have any shot at upsetting the Bandits they must stop Tavares from controlling the game.
Who do you got?
On the other side of the floor Kevin Crowley is the leading scorer for the Wings. Crowley has put up 14 points in his first two games of the year. Crowley is coming off of winning NLL rookie of the Week for his overtime winner against the Stealth.
The wings need to have their veteran leadership step up around this rookie in order to put W’s on the board. On a team with Dan Dawson, Brodie Merrill, Drew Westervelt there is no reason why a rookie forward should be pacing the scoring efforts.
The Wings need to figure out if they are prepared to win this year or if they are retooling around Crowley for future runs.
This is the first of two games for the Bandits this week, but I predict they start the week off with a win 12-9 against the Wings.
Buffalo Bandits (2-0) vs. Minnesota Swarm (0-1)
This tilt will have the Bandits traveling to the Swarm’s floor on Saturday, Jan. 28, at 8 p.m.
This game will be the home opener for the Swarm. This game will also mark the second in two nights for the Bandits.
The Swarm will look to rebound after the 20-14 shellacking they received in Week 2 from the Mammoth. The Bandits will look to continue a solid start to the 2012 campaign.
Callum Crawford is currently leading the Swarm in scoring with 9 points. Nick Patterson has a 20.00 GAA% in the net for the Swarm. Don’t let the numbers fool you; remember they have only played one game.
Who do you got?
Obviously these numbers should get better as the Swarm catch up to the rest of the league with games played.
The Swarm will look for contributions from Jamie Shewcuck and Ryan Benesch to assist Crawford’s efforts. On the defensive side of the floor, the Swarm will need to find its identity. The Swarm lost their enforcer from a year ago, Rory Smith, to Colorado.
Someone needs to step up on the defensive side of the ball for the Swarm.
The key for the Bandits will be their game on Friday night. Momentum is a huge factor in the NLL and if a team is riding a victory it will most likely carry over to their next game.
The Bandits will also have to keep their endurance up. With playing two games in two nights as well as the travel, a team could come out tired and flat. If the Bandits can avoid this, as the Colorado Mammoth did this past week, they should do fairly well against the Swarm.
My prediction is the Swarm will even their record at 1-1 with a home victory 14-12 against the Bandits.
And now Jim's previews.
Rochester Knighthawks (1-1) v. Colorado Mammoth (3-0)
At 3-0 on the season, the Colorado Mammoth are looking like serious contenders for this year’s Champion’s Cup.
John Grant Jr. is off to an epic start to the season, having already picked up 28 points in just three games. Rookie Adam Jones is not too far behind, with 19 points while tied with Grant for goals with 11. Grant and Jones are currently first and second in NLL scoring, with teammate Gavin Prout right behind them in third with 17 points.
Defensive leader Ian Hawksbee is a solid seventh in loose balls in the NLL with 18 so far. Chris Levis’ goals against average is a little high right now (12.61), but he is fifth in save percentage at .770, so he has been up to the task most of the time.
Meanwhile, the Rochester Knighthawks go into Denver for their second game in two nights, following a trip to Toronto to play the Rock on Friday.
Two games in, their offense has been very on and very off, exploding for 22 goals on their opening night and then stumbling to a six-goal performance in their second game. They will need to find some consistency if they are to compete with Colorado.
Cody Jamieson has paced the offense so far, with 13 points and six goals, while Jordan Hall and Mike Accursi are right behind him with 12 points apiece.
Pat McCready, Scott Campbell, and Travis Hill have provided solid defense so far and Matt Vinc continues to be an all-star caliber goaltender, so things are still looking pretty good for the ‘Hawks in their own end. This group will have to find an answer for John Grant if they hope to win.
I expect the Mammoth to continue their winning ways on Saturday night, pulling off another close 12-11 victory.
Toronto Rock (0-2) v. Calgary Roughnecks (2-1)
The defending champion Toronto Rock are hurting. They have started their title defense with a 0-2 record and star forward Blaine Manning is out for 6-8 weeks with a broken collarbone.
Who do you got?
After hosting Rochester on Friday night, they will be flying out to Calgary with the hopes of avenging their opening night loss to the Roughnecks.
With Manning out of the picture, the Rock will look to veteran Colin Doyle (4G, 4A) to handle even more of the offensive load. Josh Sanderson, who has had an uncharacteristically slow start (five points in two games), will also be called upon to get the offense moving, along with Dan Carey and Garret Billings.
If these guys are firing on all cylinders, there should be more than enough firepower to fill up the Roughnecks’ net.
Toronto will also be looking for improvements in their own end. The Rock are only collecting 61 loose balls per game so far, compared to 80 per game surrendered. Meanwhile, netminder Matt Roik has not yet found his game, with a shaky 12.50 goals against average and .719 save percentage.
The Calgary Roughnecks are feeling the sting of letting one get away in their home opener last week. After leading by as much as four in the third quarter, the Riggers were only able to score once in the final frame, allowing the surging Colorado Mammoth to come back and win Saturday’s game in overtime.
The Roughnecks’ head coach, Dave Pym, will be expecting his team to play a full four quarters of lacrosse, something they have not managed to do yet this year. The offense is capable of scoring in bunches, but will be called upon to maintain pressure for the full 60 minutes.
Who do you got?
2011 league MVP Jeff Shattler is once again pacing the offense, having picked up 13 points so far. The combination of Dane Dobbie, Scott Ranger, Daryl Veltman, Shawn Evans, Curtis Dickson, and Kaleb Toth are all capable of having massive games and will be looking to fill the Toronto net early and often.
Calgary’s defense has had a significant advantage over their opposition thus far and will be expected to continue that trend.
Geoff Snider has been dominant in the loose ball category, leading the league with 43 so far. But his play in the faceoff circle has been even more dominant—he has 58 wins in three games, good for a 77 percent success rate and, in fact, Colorado conceded most of the faceoffs last weekend in an attempt to avoid any odd-man rush situations off the draw.
Mike Poulin has been solid in net for the Riggers, with the third best goals against average in the league so far (11.53) and the second best save percentage (.781).
A wounded animal in the wild can be very dangerous, so Calgary should not take Toronto lightly. However, I think Calgary’s weapons will prevail in this game. I see the Roughnecks winning 13-11.
Edmonton Rush (0-1) v. Washington Stealth (0-2)
These two teams are a combined 0-3 on the season, so both will be looking to get onto the positive side of the ledger.
The Rush played a solid game against Colorado last weekend, but came up a goal short.
Shawn Williams had a big night in his debut for the Rush, earning seven points (1G, 6A), while Zack Greer notched a hat trick in the losing cause.
Chris Corbeil controlled the defensive end, scooping up nine loose balls and forcing three turnovers. Aaron Bold, however, needs to pick up his game between the pipes and cut his 13.00 goals against down.
Washington has dropped their first two after going all the way to the finals last season. They received more bad news this week as they placed veteran forward Jeff Zywicki on the Physically Unable to Perform List due to a nagging injury. Former all-star Brett Bucktooth has been signed to fill Zywicki’s role in the offense but may need some time to get up to speed on the Stealth’s game plan.
As always, Washington’s offense will be counting on Rhys Duch (4G, 5A) and Lewis Ratcliff (2G, 5A) to carry most of the load. Duch is also leading the team in loose balls with 21.
Bob Snider and Mike Grimes are the top defenders for the Stealth right now, picking up 19 and 15 loose balls respectively. Snider has not yet asserted his dominance in the faceoff circle, but may do so against a Rush team that was thoroughly handled last week by Colorado.
Tyler Richards has been decent in the Stealth net thus far, with a very solid .772 save percentage, but his defense will have to do a better job of keeping the shot totals down.
Overall, I have to give the edge to Washington—they’re just too strong across the board to continue losing. I’ll call it a 13-10 win for the Stealth.
Predictions:
Jim Flannery 2-2
Shea Haney 2-3
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