Playoffs All a Wild Card
The decade's most dominant NFL team will be at home this January watching some teams with inferior records, but with the Patriots at home, it gives the opportunity for a new team to dominate the playoffs. With no clear dominant team this season, the teams with the playoffs' worst records could have some of the best results.AFC Overview
1. Tennessee Titans (13-3)
The Titans are easily the most under appreciated team in the NFL. Despite finishing with the league's best regular season record, they haven't been given the respect as the league's best team.
It's an understandable lack of respect, as the Titans are only tied for 14th with 23.4 points/game. Two young running backs, rookie Chris Johnson and LenDale White, have accounted for most of the teams offense, but even so, the rushing attack is only seventh best in the league, which is still significantly stronger than the passing attack; at a paltry 176 yards/game in the air, the Titans passing offense is 27th.
Tennessee has been successful because it has kept teams out of the end zone and only gives up a league second best 14.6 points/game. However, neither the overall, nor pass, nor rush defense are ranked in the Top 5, a sign that the points against could be a misleading statistic come crunch time.
Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach, and he could easily put together a winner. However, it's easy to see why despite the best record in the NFL, the Titans are not a popular favorite to win it all.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
This is vintage Steelers! Pittsburgh unarguably boasts the NFL's best defense, they have the best overall, pass, and points defense, and the second best rushing defense.
On the flip side, the offense isn't anything to brag about, but has scored enough to compliment the defense. Running back Willie Parker finally appears to be healthy (116 rush yards in Week 17) and could significantly improve the rush offense that ranked 23rd.
The defense stops everyone from scoring and the offense scores just enough to win. This is vintage Steelers, and they should be feared!
3. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Miami's record is misleading, and it's hard to see the Dolphins lasting long. They don't rank in the Top 8 in any facet of offense or defense (total, pass, rush, or points).
They finished in very impressive fashion, winning 9 of last 10, but don't take that at face value. During that period, their loss was an ugly 48-28 shellacking at home to New England. They won a lot of close games against a lot of bad teams: 21-19 vs. Seattle (4-12), 17-15 vs. Oakland (5-11), 16-12 at St. Louis (2-14), 38-31 at Kansas City (2-14). That's a lot of ugly wins against even uglier teams, so it's hard to expect the Dolphins to hang around long with the league's elite.
4. San Diego Chargers (8-8)
Let's get it out of the way early: At 8-8, the Chargers don't deserve to be here.
That said, they could prove that they have the talent to be here.
San Diego was on the short list of preseason Super Bowl favorites, but had an unexplainably choppy season. The Chargers stared off with two losses and entered December at only 4-8. They beat Kansas City by one...twice!, but also only lost to Pittsburgh by one and Indianapolis by three, while lambasting New England 30-10.
There's no way to expect what the Chargers will bring to the playoffs. The offense was second in points per game and quarterback Philip Rivers was the league's most efficient passer. Poster boy LaDainian Tomlinson had a disappointing season, but always presents a huge threat to any opponent.
Defensively, the Chargers have struggled with the loss of Shawne Merriman and they give up the second most yards per game in the league.
Two years ago the Chargers were 14-2 and got knocked out at home, last year, they upset the 13-3 Colts on the road...this year...they remain just as much a mystery as always.
5. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
It's odd to see the Colts going on the road during Wild Card week, but after closing the season with nine straight wins, Indianapolis is just as good as usual entering the playoffs.
The Colts have done very well against the rest of the AFC playoff teams. They beat both Pittsburgh and San Diego on the road, and Baltimore and Tennessee at home (they did lose to the Titans on the road).
Indianapolis is all about the pass. Defensively, it is sixth against the pass and twenty-fourth against the run; offensively, it's even more lopsided: fifth passing and thirty-first rushing. As always, its success will fly from the arm of Peyton Manning.
6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
The Ravens might be the lowest seed, but that doesn't make them the weakest team in the conference.
Like the Steelers, the Ravens are cemented by their defense. They're second in total defense and against the pass, while ranking third in rushing and points against. Offensively, rookie Joe Flacco has been the quarterback the team needs. He isn't a stand out, but he doesn't make a lot of mistakes, so, while he won't win the game for Baltimore, he won't lose it either. Despite not having a 1,000-yard rusher, the Ravens are amazingly fourth in rushing offense and can go three deep in the backfield with Le'Ron McClain, Willie McGahee, and Ray Rice.
Don't let the seed fool you, this team could go somewhere!
NFC Overview
1. New York Giants (12-4)
After last year's Super Bowl win and staring 11-1, the Giants have gotten a lot of hype this season...but don't buy all of it.
They were hammered by 4-12 Cleveland and snuck by 4-11-1 Cincinnati in overtime. They also don't fare well the second time they play a team; both Philadelphia and Dallas made the adjustments to beat the Giants the second time around. This won't bode well for them since the Falcons are the only NFC playoff team they haven't already played, and, in their final two games of the season, the Giants needed a missed field goal by Carolina to win in overtime, and then lost to the Vikings to close the season.
Eli Manning only broke 200 yards passing twice in the final twelve games of the season, but if there's something the Giants can lean on, it's the NFL's top rushing offense. With the weather always questionable in New York during January (and home-field throughout), a strong rushing attack can win a lot of games.
2. Carolina Panthers (12-4)
The Panthers are grounded by the league's third best rushing offense, a quarterback that doesn't make many mistakes, and a wide receiver (Steve Smith) that can always make a big play.
The defense isn't anything to brag about, but John Fox has always been viewed as a cerebral coach that knows how to game plan in the postseason.
There's really nothing to indicate they're a stronger team than the Giants, but the Panthers are always dangerous and have a reputation for surprising come playoff time. Beware of the Panthers!
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
The Vikings are one of the least talked about playoff teams. With so many story lines about teams turning around their franchises (Atlanta, Miami, and Baltimore), teams failing to live up to expectations (Philadelphia, Dallas, New England), and teams with impressive domination (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the Giants), it's easy to see how a 10-6 team that started the year 1-3, only once won more than two straight games, and is "led" by either Tavaris Jackson or Gus Frerotte can get overlooked.
All that said, the Vikings shouldn't be discounted. Adrian Peterson led the league in rushing and is the next big thing the NFL; he can break out a huge run at anytime. He leads a rushing attack that is fifth in the league with 145 yards/game. The Vikings are 6-2 at home, and with the league's best rush defense could shut down Carolina and the Giants on the road.
4. Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Have you ever seen a team stumble into the playoffs more than the Arizona Cardinals!?...Oh, before I talk about why it's all you'll accomplish, congratulations on making it to the playoffs, by the way, it's about time!...
On the sunny side, Arizona has the league's second best pass offense...enjoy that stat if you're an Arizona fan (also email me, cause those fans are few and far between), it's the only good thing they have going.
They have the worst rushing attack in the league at only 73 yards/game, and in the playoffs, having a one dimensional passing offense is never a good thing (unless, maybe, you're on Peyton Manning's team).
Defensively, the Cards are 16th against the run and 22nd against the pass, combine that together and the 26.6 points/game they give up is 26th in the NFL. They gave up 56 to the Jets, and in a late season five week span, they gave up at least 35 in four games (37 to the Giants, 48 to the Eagles, 35 to the Vikings, and 47 to the Patriots).
Arizona went 6-0 in a division that, aside from them, had a record of 13-35, outside the division, they were 3-7. Needless to say, there's no other team from the NFC West in the playoffs, so that doesn't bode well for Arizona.
5. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Hats off to the Falcons! This franchise might as well have gone to the Big House with Michael Vick a year ago, but smart management gave the team an early parole.
Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year and free agent signee, Michael Turner, finished second in the league with 1,699 rush yards.
Defensively, the Falcons still have a long way to go. They're only 24th in total defense and neither their pass nor run defense is impressive, even so, they're still 11th in points against.
The offense revolves around the rush, which is second in the NFL in yards per game, and could play a big role in a bad weather playoff game.
No matter how the Falcons end the season, it was definitely a huge success and, a year after losing the franchise player to the law, they're already rebuilt to contend perennially.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1)
The Eagles are lucky to be here. After an ugly 10-3 loss in Week 16, the Eagles needed to beat the Cowboys and have both the Bears and Bucs lose to make the playoffs. That all came together in Week 17, and that's bad news for the rest of NFC.
The Eagles are streaky, but when on top of their game, they play some of the best football in the league. They were viewed as a preseason contender, but started 2-3 and didn't make it back into the playoff picture until they won four of the last five games. (This sounds a lot like the Chargers write up, doesn't it!?).
Now that the Eagles are in, they will be a lot to handle. The defense is dominant, it ranks third in total yards and pass defense, and fourth in rush defense and points against.
Offensively, they're sixth in passing and points, but struggle on the ground at 22nd. However, that statistic can be misleading, as versatile back Brian Westbrook tends to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, thus racking up running back-like yards under the passing category. Even while battling injuries early in the year, Westbrook caught for 402 yards and 5 TDs at the running back position this season.
Ask the rest of the NFC teams and with good reason, they should tell you they'd rather the Eagles didn't make the playoffs.
Wild Card Matchups
NFC - Atlanta at Arizona - Sat 4:30 EST
If the Cardinals want to win, they'll need to get their dominant passing offense going and outscore the Falcons, who are sure to rack up the yards on the ground. An indoor game will certainly support the pass offense, but considering the Georgia Dome is also indoors, it'll be an environment Atlanta is used to.
The Cardinals have been too inconsistent down the stretch, and the Falcons closed the season winning five of six. Look for Atlanta to keep the turn around season going: Falcons 34-28.
AFC - Indianapolis at San Diego - Sat 8 EST
(Regular season: Week 12 in San Diego - Indianapolis 23, San Diego 20)
Bummer for San Diego that it finally gets going and then runs into the Colts in the Wild Card, but when you finish at 8-8, what else would you expect!? You have to play the best non-division winner!
This will be an interesting matchup because with the Colts finishing with nine straight wins and the Chargers finishing with four, these teams are two of the hottest in the NFL.
The Chargers have been streaky and inconsistent this season, and LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable for the game. The Colts have regained their dominant form that has become the expected norm. Peyton Manning should exploit one of the league's worst pass defenses and avenge last year's loss in Indianapolis: Colts 30-24.
AFC - Baltimore at Miami - Sun 1 EST
(Previous matchup: Week 7 at Miami - Baltimore 27, Miami 13)
Both AFC Wild Card matchups feature a road team that has already won in the other team's stadium...and both teams should repeat that success.
The Dolphins don't have a whole lot that makes them playoff caliber, and will get shut down by the Ravens dominant defense: Ravens 23-6.
NFC - Philadelphia at Minnesota - Sun 4:30 EST
This is an extremely intriguing game. Adrian Peterson will lead the Vikings against one of the best run defenses in the league. The Vikings have an advantage playing at home, but with a one dimensional offense, it will be hard to beat the Eagles.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Eagles find ways to get Brian Westbrook the ball, be it by hand off or short pass. However, the Vikings boast the league's best run defense, which bodes well for stopping Westbrook.
Statistically, this looks like a defensive chess match, but Peterson and Westbrook are two of the league's most electric backs and could light up a defense at any point. Whichever running back can lead his offense better will lead his team to victory. Peterson will put up a fight, but the lack of a passing threat will sink the Vikings ship: Eagles 17-13.
Playoff Picture
Looking ahead, here are the matchups based on the previous predictions and what to expect from those games.
AFC Divisional Playoffs
(6) Ravens 14, (1) Titans 3 - The Ravens defense stops the Titans one-dimensional offense.
(2) Steelers 20, (5) Colts 17 - In a game that could yield the Super Bowl champion, (did I mention?) vintage Steelers! The defense holds a strong offense and the offense scores just enough.
NFC Divisional Playoffs
(6) Eagles 27, (1) Giants 13 - The Eagles won in New York in Week 14, and after beating the Vikings running attack in the Wild Card, the Eagles shut down the Giants' as well.
(2) Panthers 31, (5) Falcons 23 - These division rivals split during the regular season, with the Panthers shutting down Atlanta at home before getting blown up on the road. The Panthers playoff experience will beat the shoot down the inexperienced Falcons.
AFC Championship
(2) Steelers 13, (6) Ravens 10 - There'll be blood, and there'll definitely be defense. It's very hard to beat a team three times in a season, but the Steelers will do just that as they win their third defensive battle of the year against Baltimore in a hard fought game.
NFC Championship
(6) Eagles 24, (2) Panthers 14 - Five years ago, the Panthers won this game in Philadelphia, the Eagles return the favor by stopping a third consecutive vaunted rushing attack.
Super Bowl
Steelers 23, Eagles 13 - The NFL should just move this all Pennsylvania matchup to the neutral site in Happy Valley and let two of the league's most passionate fan bases duke it out! In another defensive battle for the Steelers to prove their valor as the league's best, Donovan McNabb struggles in the big game (again!), and the 2006 Super Bowl Champions show their experience in winning their second title in four years.
2009 Bonus Prediction
After McNabb loses the big one again, he is forced out of Philadelphia (in a similar manner to Marty Schottenheimer being forced out San Diego after going 14-2 in 2006 and losing in the Divisional Round). Kevin Kolb becomes the starter for the Eagles and they go 7-9, which coincidentally is the same record to which McNabb leads his new team, the formerly 0-16 Lions.
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