2012 March Madness Field of 68 Projections: Jan. 23

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And then there was one.

Following Syracuse's loss at Notre Dame, Murray State is the only remaining undefeated team in the country. The Racers are in my field, but what other 67 teams make the cut this week?

As always, I am not trying to guess how teams will finish the year. I am simply seeding them based on their current résumés.

I like to break teams down into three categories:

1. Wallflowers are bubble teams because everyone wants to go to the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out on the dance floor.

2. Elite teams that are safely in the field are dancing with a hottie.

3. In the middle are the schools that are dancing with their sister.

Last year, I had the most accurate bracket projections in the country, correctly predicting 67 of 68 teams and once again finishing way ahead of ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

I'll begin with the two First Four at-large bid games:

(12a) Marshall vs. (12d) NC State

(12b) Saint Louis vs. (12c) Iowa State

First 14 Teams Out: LSU, Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU, New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, Texas, Colorado, Washington, Stanford, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Massachusetts

The projections are presented in slideshow format, with slides consisting of the major conferences. First up is the ACC...

ACC (5)

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Dancing with a Hottie: Duke (2 seed), North Carolina (2)

Dancing with their Sister: Virginia (7), Florida State (8)

Wallflowers: North Carolina State (12d)

Duke's 45-game home winning streak came to an end on a three-point buzzer-beater by Florida State Saturday, but the Blue Devils' resume is still plenty worthy of a 2 seed. They are second in the RPI, first in strength of schedule and 5-3 versus the top 50.

Virginia was the latest team to prove why the polls mean virtually nothing. The so-called 15th-ranked Cavs scored just 45 points at home in a loss to Virginia Tech on Sunday. They have the same amount of wins over top-50 teams as they do defeats to sub-100 schools, and their computer numbers (RPI 53, SOS 136) leave plenty to be desired.

Losses to Princeton and Clemson become a distant memory when you beat North Carolina and Duke. The Seminoles are tied for first in the ACC, possess the fourth-strongest schedule in the country and are 23rd in the RPI.

NC State is also tied for the best record in the conference and finds itself in the field this week following three straight wins. But without a top-50 victory on its ledger, the Wolfpack will need a strong showing in the next several days against UNC and UVa.

Big East (8)

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Dancing with a Hottie: Syracuse (1), Georgetown (3), Marquette (3), West Virginia (4)

Dancing with Their Sister: Connecticut (5), Seton Hall (5), Louisville (7)

Wallflowers: Cincinnati (11)

Fab Melo's absence due to reported academic issues contributed to Syracuse's first loss of the season—a setback at Notre Dame on Saturday—and may cost the Orange another game at Cincinnati on Monday night. But for now, SU is still safely on the top line.

Marquette beat Louisville on Monday and has now reeled off four in a row. The computer numbers are stellar (RPI 13, SOS 18) as is the 8-4 mark against the top 100.

West Virginia is also trending in the right direction after picking up a nice non-conference road win at Marshall on Wednesday and then holding serve at home against Cincinnati three days later. The Mountaineers are 15-5 despite the second-toughest schedule in the country.

UConn, on the other hand, lost to Cincy and Tennessee last week and has now dropped four of six, including a pair to teams ranked 129 or below in the RPI.

Seton Hall's loss at Villanova drops the Pirates down a notch, but their computer numbers are still very strong (RPI 7, SOS 14) and they don't have any sub-100 defeats.

Cincinnati's win at UConn followed by their strong showing at West Virginia jumps the Bearcats up to an 11 seed. Some might expect a 5-2 Big East team to be higher on the S-curve, but their non-conference resume is atrocious (SOS 326, home loss to No. 270 Presbyterian).

Big Ten (9)

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Dancing with a Hottie: Ohio State (2), Michigan State (3)

Dancing with Their Sister: Indiana (5), Wisconsin (5), Illinois (6), Michigan (6)

Wallflowers: Minnesota (9), Purdue (9), Northwestern (11)

Michigan State's one-point loss at rival Michigan drops the Spartans down a line. It was their second straight road setback, but MSU has proven it can win away from home, picking up wins at Gonzaga, Nebraska and Wisconsin.

Indiana is regressing to the mean after its tremendous 12-0 start. The Hoosiers' one-point loss at Nebraska on Wednesday was their third in a row, but they bounced back to blow out Penn State on Sunday.

Wisconsin charges up to a 5 seed after a strong week that included wins over Northwestern and Illinois. The Badgers have reeled off four in a row to climb to 5-3 in conference and 31 in the RPI.

Michigan took one step forward and one step back last week. After holding on to beat Michigan State, the Wolverines stormed back in the second half, but couldn't completely overcome a big deficit at Arkansas.

Illinois' rough week drops the Illini to a 6 seed. They lost at Penn State and then at home to Wisconsin, falling to 4-3 in the Big Ten.

Minnesota continues to take care of business, crushing Northwestern by 23 for the Gophers' third straight win. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are back on the bubble after consecutive road losses in which they were never really in the game. Northwestern is 1-5 in true away contests.

Big 12 (5)

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Dancing with a Hottie: Kansas (1), Missouri (1), Baylor (2)

Dancing with their Sister: Kansas State (6)

Wallflowers: Iowa State (12c), Texas (seventh team out), Oklahoma (12th team out)

The Big 12 had one top seed last week and two completely different 1 seeds this week as Kansas and Missouri each scored big wins over Baylor.

Iowa State sneaks into the field after a couple of wins last week. The stay could be brief, however, because the Cyclones are just 1-5 against the top 100. ISU's computer numbers (RPI 52, SOS 64) compare favorably to fellow Wallflowers and the school doesn't have any real bad losses on is resume. Big week coming up against Texas and Kansas.

That will be a big game for the Longhorns as well because they have lost three straight and also only have one top-100 victory.

Oklahoma is almost completely gone from consideration after falling at Texas A&M. The Sooners have a couple of big opportunities this week, however, versus Baylor and Kansas State.

Pac-12 (1)

Wallflowers: California (12), Oregon (third team out), Colorado (eighth team out), Washington (ninth team out), Stanford (10th team out)

Well, it finally happened. A week with just one Pac-12 team in the projected field. Cal is the only one that makes the cut and that's just because the Bears represent the conference's automatic bid.

Oregon is right behind them, however, winning four straight to climb into a tie atop the league leaderboard.

Colorado is back in the picture after sweeping the two Arizona schools out of its home gym.

Stanford had a terrible week, though, losing both games in its trip to Washington.

SEC (5)

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Dancing with a Hottie: Kentucky (1)

Dancing with Their Sister: Vanderbilt (6), Mississippi State (8)

Wallflowers: Alabama (10), Florida (11), LSU (first team out), Ole Miss (second team out), Arkansas (11th team out)

Vanderbilt had an uneven week, winning at Alabama, but then falling at home to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs also went 1-1, losing at Ole Miss.

The Crimson Tide have hit a difficult part of their schedule, dropping three straight to Miss State, Vandy and Kentucky. Alabama is just 2-6 against the top 50.

Florida is heading in the right direction with three consecutive victories, but the Gators are just beating up on the bottom of the conference, and they still have more losses to sub-100 teams than wins over the top 50.

Mississippi is making a run at a bid, beating Miss State and Georgia last week to improve to 3-2 in the SEC. The Rebels' computer numbers are solid (RPI 34, SOS 32) and they will host Florida on Thursday in what figures to be a pivotal bubble game.

Mountain West (3)

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Dancing with a Hottie: UNLV (4)

Dancing with Their Sister: San Diego State (7)

Wallflowers: Colorado State (12), New Mexico (fifth team out)

Colorado State lost at Wyoming on Saturday, but the Rams remain in the field because the bubble, like always, is extremely weak.

Hey, why don't we add 28 more teams?

CSU's computer numbers are still excellent (RPI 21, SOS 17) and it doesn't have any bad losses, which is more than can be said for other teams competing for an at-large bid. Still, the Rams' game at New Mexico on Wednesday will be huge for both squads.

Missouri Valley (2)

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Dancing with Their Sister: Creighton (4)

Wallflowers: Wichita State (9)

With a bunch of teams losing around them, Creighton slides on up to a 4 seed, thanks to eight straight wins. The Bluejays are a stellar 4-0 against the top 50, ranked 18th in the RPI and possess an incredible 7-1 record in true road games.

Atlantic 10 (4)

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Dancing with Their Sister: Temple (8), Dayton (9)

Wallflowers: Xavier (10), Saint Louis (12b), Saint Joseph's (sixth team out), Massachusetts (13th team out)

Saint Louis moves back into the field after holding serve against Charlotte and Duquesne. The Billikens still don't have a top-50 victory, however, so they could really use a win at Xavier on Wednesday.

Other Conferences (8)

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Dancing with a Hottie: Murray State (3)

Dancing with Their Sister: Gonzaga (4), Saint Mary's (7), Southern Miss (8)

Wallflowers: Memphis (10), UCF (10), Harvard (11), Marshall (12a), BYU (fourth team out)

Southern Miss is on safer ground after beating Marshall to climb into a second-place tie in Conference USA. The Golden Eagles also have wins over Colorado State and Ole Miss, are 5-2 in true road games and rank 15th in the RPI.

Memphis is also tied for second in that league, but the Tigers are going the opposite direction after a loss at UCF on Wednesday. That was an enormous win for the Knights, who are back in the field with their second RPI top-25 win to go along with the victory over UConn on Nov. 25.

Marshall came up empty in both of its big games last week against West Virginia and Southern Miss and therefore will have much less margin for error in its remaining Conference USA games.

BYU's 14-point loss at home to Loyola-Marymount on Thursday drops the Cougars from the field.

Automatic Bids

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No. 13 seeds: Iona, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Oral Roberts

No. 14 seeds: Middle Tennessee, Davidson, Bucknell, Akron

No. 15 seeds: Norfolk State, Nevada, Belmont, Weber State

No. 16 seeds: Long Island, George Mason, UNC Asheville vs. Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State vs. Texas-Arlington

 

Jordan is one of Bleacher Report's College Basketball Featured Columnists. Follow him on Twitter @JordanHarrison.