The Backdoor Cover: Championship Weekend Picks

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The Backdoor Cover: Championship Weekend Picks

It’s time for the second to last gambling column of the year, so let’s not waste each others time.

I have four picks this week. I guarantee 3-1. I’ve spent a lot of time reading Game of Thrones trying to figure out what game I will lose. Unfortunately, I haven’t gotten to that part in the series. Regardless, If you wager half a million dollars on each of these picks then Sunday night you’ll have $1,000,000.  There is simply NO EXCUSE for you not being a millionaire in a few days.

Before we get into the picks, the always insightful Gregg Rosenthal at PFT & Rotoworld (despite the Brady Quinn getting reps debacle) dropped this earlier in the week and it blew my mind in regards to San Francisco QB Alex Smith: Smith was benched for the following quarterbacks during his 49ers career: Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, J.T. O’Sullivan, and Troy Smith.

One last note: Why can’t ESPN just analyze the games without “WHICH QB NEEDS TO WIN MORE” arguments non-stop? Both quarterbacks need to win in each game and trying to say that one is going to be replaced for losing is needless drama and speculation. But since it’s ESPN, that’s par for the course.

NFL

Baltimore +8 @ New England – Beware the team that struggled the week before against the team that had the cakewalk. Only thing that worries me here, in the Championship round when the home team scores 28+ they are 28-0 straight up and 26-2 ATS. Obviously the Patriots can reach that number. I just think this will be a close game with the running of Baltimore and their defense. The Ravens were 7-0 versus playoff teams and the Patriots were 0-2 before last week’s win over Denver. I talked to my friend Stu who runs a major Las Vegas sportsbook and he told me they are getting 8 NE bets for every 1 BAL bet, yet the line is going the OTHER way. Someone is setting themselves up for a big payday is all I’m saying.

BALTIMORE/NEW ENGLAND UNDER 50 – Unders have been ugly this postseason. I’m talking Kathy Griffin ugly. All I can tell you is the numbers have this one too high and everyone is on the over. That’s all I got. If you want to take the over, no one could blame you at this point.

New York Giants +2.5 @ San Francisco – Which question is what surprise teams do I like to keep the momentum going? The one that has done it before. I had both these teams last week and I still love the Niners defense at home. However, unless NY plans on turning the ball over multiple times deep in their own territory I don’t see SF keeping up with the Giants scoring every so often. Lastly, I don’t want the Niners in the Super Bowl. What a boring week when we could get crazy Brandon Jacobs, Victor Cruz and SportsCenter asking repeatedly if Eli is NOW better than Peyton. Gross.

New York Giants/San Francisco UNDER 42 – See the other games explanation (or lack thereof) for this UNDER selection. Have I mentioned the weather is supposed to be terrible? It is. Just remember…..3-1 with these picks this week. Let’s become the 1%.


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