Now we get to the very bold section of this slideshow.
The 190 innings seems fine since he pitched 171 in 2011, including 113 innings before the All-Star break. The WHIP also looks fine because it is only 0.02 lower than 2011.
Let's first look at strikeouts. I have him pegged with 208 strikeouts in 190 innings, which is 9.85 K/9. That is 0.74 more strikeouts per nine innings that 2011 and would have placed him third in the majors. With his much-improved changeup and more experience in the majors this seems fairly obtainable.
His walks are also fine; this has him at a 3.25 K/BB, which is slightly better than his 3.16 K/BB from 2011.
Now to his ERA, which I am sure is making some of you guys burst out into laughter. There is a great article from FanGraphs that shows how his seemingly worrisome splits do not hold as much water as they first appear to.
If you look you can see that he was extremely unlucky on the road because his BABIP is .066 higher away from Safeco. He also for some reason has a 10.5 percent HR/FB at home and a lower 7.8 percent HR/FB on the road even though Safeco Field is supposed to be huge and turn home runs into routine fly balls. He also only stranded 64.4 percent of runners on the road in 2011 even though the league average is 75 percent.
Pineda was a very unlucky pitcher on the road in 2011.
Now, let's look at his FIP. His FIP on the road is 3.26 but his FIP at home is 3.62. Neither of those are bad at all and he is actually better on the road away from Safeco Field.
Pineda actually improved as the season went on, despite what his sudden spike in ERA will tell you. His ground-ball rate was from 31.3 percent from March to June and then from September to October it was 45.3 percent. That is a huge improvement. His strikeout and walk rates also remained fairly constant throughout the year.
After the All-Star break he had a 5.14 ERA, right? Sounds awful. He also had a 3.22 xFIP during that time period, which is actually pretty good.
If he does keep his ERA this low—which is possible, although I admit it is bold—he can win 17 games no problem. Phil Hughes won 18 games in 2010 with a 4.19 ERA and Ivan Nova won 16 games despite spending a month in the minors with a 3.70 ERA in 2011.