Look. I get it. The Packers are better, they're playing at home and they're coming off of a bye week. They're a 15-1 team taking on a 9-7 team. By most accounts, they should have this game in the bag.
That's part of why this game scares me so much.
The New York Giants are a team with a serious knack for pulling off an upset. Just this season, they managed to to beat the Cowboys to win their division despite the fact they were a handful of games behind them, and more impressively, they defeated the Patriots on their own turf.
Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Ahmad Bradshaw are finally getting healthy again, and with that health comes some newfound energy. Just look at what they did to Atlanta.
The Giants were already able to keep it close when they played against Green Bay earlier this year and now they're getting healthy, and that certainly doesn't help the Packers.
That means that the defensive line is going to put even more pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and though Rodgers has been able to elude the rush in the pass, he's not superman. He was still sacked 36 times in just 15 starts this season.
Even worse, the run game is starting to generate new life, and though the Packers rank 12th against the run this year, they have gradually gotten worse as the season went on.
On paper, I'd say the Giants are the kind of team that are capable of having a 12-4 season. I believe the only reason they came so close to being knocked out of the playoffs was because of the key injuries listed above.
All that being said, I still would be very cautious about the Giants even if everything I listed above weren't true.
Against the Saints, the Packers had a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter, but the game still ended in a goal-line stance to keep the game from potentially going into overtime. Against Chicago, the Packers held a strong 17-point lead in the fourth quarter, but a fumble by James Starks, and some poor tackling in the secondary, put Chicago right back in the game.
The Giants are the type of team that thrive on games like these. If the Packers lead 28-10 in the fourth quarter and start going conservative or become over-confident, you can bet your house the Giants will take full advantage of that.
Also, what the Giants did to the Packers in 2007 doesn't help either.
In summary, I smell pure bologna completely written all over this game. The Packers should win, but it's just one of those games where my gut is telling me that I'm going to be hugely disappointed.