Roger Federer Overrated as Second Favorite at 2012 Australian Open

Shane LambertAnalyst IIJanuary 8, 2012

Roger Federer After Winning the 2010 Australian Open
Roger Federer After Winning the 2010 Australian OpenMark Dadswell/Getty Images

Roger Federer is a four-time champion at Melbourne Park, having most recently won the title in 2010 with a win in the final over Andy Murray.

Considered the greatest player of all time by many and having won 16 Grand Slam titles, it is to be expected that the Swiss Maestro should have his fair share of backers in any Grand Slam event he enters.

However, the 30-year-old looks well overrated entering the 2012 Australian Open. He has not made the final of any hard court Grand Slam event since the 2010 Aussie, and entering this year's tournament, he has a recent back injury.

Federer garnered a great deal of support to win the Aussie when he won the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals in November. However, that tournament had a different format, one that gives aging stars a better chance to compete than Grand Slams do. I wrote on that matter at the link below:

Currently Federer has odds of 9/2 (+450) with Bwin to win the 2012 Australian Open outright, odds that imply an 18.18 percent chance of winning the first slam of the 2012 calendar year.

Federer's chances are much lower in my opinion and I only give the Swiss Maestro about a 5-6 percent chance of winning the championship at Melbourne Park—maybe worse.

Federer could be ripe for the pickings in the third round of fourth round at the Australian Open and it will be very interesting to see who ends up in his section of the draw when the draw is released on Jan. 13.

Being close to seeded players like Florian Mayer or Andy Roddick would be a blessing for Federer. However, being near a player like Milos Raonic or Gael Monfils might end the Swiss Maestro's run to consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinals.