Two things in particular are going to have to fall into place for Nate Diaz to get the result he's looking for against Donald Cerrone tonight at UFC 141: stand-up striking and ground fighting.

That may seem obvious, but let's break down why...

 

Stand-up striking

Is Nate Diaz’s (14-7) boxing still underrated? Or are we already convinced that he, just like older brother Nick, belongs to the crème de la crème of MMA pugilists?

It can’t be ignored that Diaz out-boxed for three rounds before submitting via guillotine choke former professional boxer—repeat, boxer—Marcus Davis in UFC 118. And, in his last fight in UFC 135, he was on the same mode when he out-boxed then submitted by armbar in the very first round another powerful puncher in Takanori Gomi.

Time and time again an effective boxer beats a muay Thai specialist to the punch, punching being a boxer’s specialty. Especially when a good boxer has learned to time his punches through a muay Thai kickboxer’s kicks and attempts at a muay Thai clinch.

Against Donald Cerrone (17-3 with 1 no contest), timing his punches right and avoiding his opponents strikes—punches included—will bring Diaz the advantage on the feet.

 

Ground fighting

Diaz may be no Jamie Varner or Ben Henderson, the two fighters with strong wrestling backgrounds who have beaten Cerrone in past fights. Just the same, there’ll be no harm if Diaz attempts a takedown, and he can be successful in bringing the fight to the canvass.

Once the fight hits the ground—no matter who initiates the takedown and lands on top—it can be anybody’s ball game judging by Diaz’s 10 submission wins in his fight record against Cerrone’s 13 victories via the same route. But counting on Diaz, the Cesar Gracie Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) disciple, is a safer bet.

Diaz and Cerrone both lost one fight apiece by submission. Diaz tapped to BJJ black belt Hermes Franca; Cerrone’s loss was courtesy of BJJ brown belt Ben Henderson.

Take note that Henderson submitted Cerrone via one of Diaz’s favorites: guillotine choke.

On the ground, Cerrone may prove the more vulnerable, however slightly, to getting submitted.

 

It will be effective boxing and superior ground grappling for Diaz en route to a win by decision or hopefully, a finish.