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The Denver Broncos have 12 unrestricted free agents. Some of those players will be re-signed in March, but many more will be allowed to explore other opportunities. As good as the Broncos were in 2012, not many of their free agents were major contributors—that’s a good thing.

It’s unlikely the Broncos will be overly active in free agency when it comes to signing free agents from other teams, but they have the cap space to explore their options. John Elway will focus most of his attention on adding depth through the draft, and those draft picks will likely replace many of Denver’s free agents.

Free agency comes in three waves. It’s the first wave of free agency, where all the best players are signed, where the Broncos are likely to be quiet. The Broncos only have a couple of their own players to address in the first wave.

The second wave of free agency comes after the draft and includes veterans who still have a gas left in the tank, good scheme fits and special-teams contributors. The Broncos might consider re-signing a few or their veterans if they don’t add a quality player at those positions through the draft in the second wave.

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Finding a quarterback is a bit like buying an engagement ring. There are thousands of options out there, but you need the ring that is going to seal the deal forever (10 years in NFL time). There are several ways to go about picking it out, but you have to get a decent one or you will get shot down and be out on the street.

If Matt Cassel is the nickel-plated cubic zirconia ring from the local warehouse store, then Tom Brady is that ring that comes in a blue box and costs as much as a car. The consensus seems to be that there are no blue-box rings available in the draft, so the Chiefs will have to get creative.

Now that Michael Vick has restructured his contract to stay in Philadelphia and Dennis Dixon has reunited with his former college head coach, Nick Foles could be expendable. Mike Garafolo of USA Today reports that the Chiefs are interested in Foles if he becomes available.

Foles would be the ring from a mall jewelry store that is capable of getting the job done, but at what cost? It’s common knowledge that you pay more at the mall because of the high overhead and salespeople on commission.

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The Raiders can draft Geno Smith and still address their defensive needs.
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There is an argument to be made for the Oakland Raiders to draft quarterback Geno Smith with the third-overall selection in April’s NFL draft. This idea isn’t particularly popular idea for various reasons, but it’s still an option the Raiders have to consider.

One of the biggest arguments against drafting offense in the first round is the needs on defense. The big problem with that argument is that the draft is loaded with defensive linemen and cornerbacks. The Raiders might miss out on a couple defensive studs, but they have more than one draft pick to address their needs.

It’s also important to consider how the top defenders might fit in Oakland. Despite having a lot of needs, not every player would have a clear path to starting.

Take one of my favorite draft prospects, Star Lotulelei, who would play one of the two defensive tackle positions in Oakland. In order to project Lotulelei, we have to make some assumption about how Reggie McKenzie will address his need at the position. The assumptions are that McKenzie will not re-sign Desmond Bryant or that he’ll cut Tommy Kelly; otherwise, he’d have three starters at the position.

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The San Diego Chargers will take their new front office and coaching staff to Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine to continue scouting for the 2013 NFL draft. New general manager Tom Telesco will now have his staff completely organized with a clear plan for what they are going to accomplish in Indianapolis.

The general public watches NFL Network to see the prospects get measured by stopwatch, cord, laser, Bod Pod, camera and Tricorder while wearing the latest fashionable male leotards. The real work is done behind the scenes, where teams are interviewing prospects.

Players are grilled on their past and the team already has the most of the answers. Football intelligence is tested and the team tries to get a feel for how the players will fit on their teams. Teams want players who love football and to know what they are getting.

There’s also the medical component of the combine. Prospects are poked, prodded, dipped and scanned to determine if they have any preexisting conditions the team needs to be worried about. The teams often want to check the progress of players who are coming off injuries to see if they will be ready by training camp of if they might be out significantly longer.

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There has been some discussion amongst fans that one of the reasons the Denver Broncos lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs was that the pass rush disappeared late in the game. Joe Flacco is a statue in the pocket but had plenty of time to throw deep, and there were previously unseen cracks in Denver’s secondary that he was able to exploit.  

Von Miller is great and Elvis Dumervil is a solid complement, but the Broncos have to seriously consider giving them more help in 2013. With Justin Bannan, Kevin Vickerson, Ty Warren and Jason Hunter all becoming free agents in March, the Broncos need to decide what they are going to do with the defensive line. The best option for the Broncos is Richard Seymour.

Seymour will be a free agent in March because his contract voided with the Oakland Raiders at the end of the season. Once Seymour becomes available, the Broncos should place a priority on trying to sign him to help the defensive line. Seymour still has plenty of miles left on his tires, will want to play for a winner and will probably not break the bank.

Probably the best thing about Seymour is his versatility. Seymour has experience playing defensive end in a 3-4, defensive tackle in a 4-3 and even as a 4-3 defensive end. Since the Broncos utilize Derek Wolfe at defensive end instead of defensive tackle, they could really use a pass-rusher up the middle. Seymour could also move around to exploit mismatches.  

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As many teams do this time of year, the Buffalo Bills started purging their roster of overpriced and underperforming players. The Bills released linebacker Nick Barnett and safety George Wilson on Monday as they look to get younger on defense.

Linebacker is probably on general manager John Dorsey’s list of needs, making Barnett an ideal target for the Chiefs. While Barnett is not a great player, he is a solid veteran option that can solidify a defense. By signing Barnett, the Chiefs would be able to use their draft picks to fill the holes at defensive end and cornerback.

When Barnett was signed by the Bills in 2011, he was brought in to play inside linebacker in Buffalo’s 3-4 defense. The Bills ended up playing more 4-3 in 2011 and switched their base defense to the 4-3 permanently in 2012. Barnett moved to weak-side linebacker and also has experience at middle linebacker.

The Chiefs could use an inside linebacker to pair with Derrick Johnson, and Dorsey is familiar with Barnett from his time with the Packers. Barnett was drafted in the first round by the Packers in 2003 when Dorsey served as the team’s director of college scouting.

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Michael Vick's restructured deal hurts the Raiders, but not as much as JaMarcus Russell did.
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The Philadelphia Eagles announced that they restructured quarterback Michael Vick’s contract and he’ll remain with the team to compete for the starting job. Although the Eagles aren’t committing to Vick as the starter, he’ll at least be with the team through training camp.

It’s pretty safe to assume the Eagles will not be drafting a quarterback in the first round or try to draft a quarterback in the first round—particularly early. This move hurts the Raiders ability to trade down in the draft and takes another veteran quarterback off the market should they release Carson Palmer.

The Eagles hold the No. 4 overall pick which is right behind the Raiders. With several quarterback-needy teams drafting just behind the Eagles, the Raiders were sitting in a good position to move down for a team looking to jump the Eagles to get a quarterback. That opportunity is now gone and the Raiders only chances to trade down took a major hit.

The only player that has been traded-up to get at No. 3 overall or higher who wasn’t a quarterback over the last decade was Trent Richardson, and the Cleveland Browns only moved up one spot to get him. The likelihood that the Raiders will now be able to trade down is unlikely. The Raiders will likely have to keep their pick, which will make it difficult for Reggie McKenzie to add additional draft picks to make up for the picks the Raiders lost by trading for Palmer and Aaron Curry.

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The Chargers would have to get extremely lucky to land Luke Joeckel.
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When trying to determine what’s wrong with quarterback Philip Rivers, it’s easy to point to the pass protection. The offensive line in San Diego had been poor for three years, and former general manager A.J. Smith never found a solution.

In just about every mock draft, the Chargers are taking an offensive tackle, whether that’s Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson. It makes perfect sense so it often goes unquestioned, but there are plenty of other options the Chargers could explore.

The question is to what extent the Chargers should consider drafting players at other positions with such a huge need. Teams fall in love with players at positions of need and therefore overvalue them, and that could happen here.

As a general rule, it's probably a bad idea to overvalue prospects because of a need, but it's okay in this case. If all three of the top tackles are taken, no one would suggest that the Chargers should select an offensive tackle in the first round. It seems likely that the Chargers would have all three tackles highly graded.

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The Kansas City Chiefs have the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Essentially, the Chiefs are on the clock as the sports world waits with bated breath to see what they are going to do.

Drafting a quarterback seems like a good idea, but there is no consensus on if any of the quarterback prospects deserve to be drafted that high. In terms of maximizing value, an argument can be made for waiting until the second round to draft a quarterback that fits Andy Reid’s scheme.

If the Chiefs do wait to draft a quarterback, it’s worth wondering which quarterback they would target.

According to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net, the Chiefs are one of three teams that think highly of former Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib. Interest in Nassib would certainly fit with the idea that the Chiefs could go in another direction with the first pick.

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The Oakland Raiders have a decision to make on Carson Palmer’s future with the team: release him or pay him $15.3 million in 2013. The business world might do a cost-benefit analysis to determine if they should keep Palmer, and since the NFL is a business, it would make sense that the Raiders would do the same.

In this case the cost is known, but the benefit is a little bit more complicated. The benefit of Palmer is basically equal to his future production and can be evaluated in many different ways. There is subjective analysis that can be done (scouting) or you could use data from the past (statistics). General manager Reggie McKenzie will likely use both to arrive at his conclusion.

Once the analysis is done, the answer is pretty clear: the Raiders should cut Palmer. Palmer’s cost is too high, and his benefit is too low for the Raiders to keep him as their starting quarterback. Palmer’s production is far from irreplaceable at this point, and the Raiders would save over $6 million by releasing him.

 

Cost

There are a few ways to evaluate Palmer’s cost. Palmer's cap number will be $15.3 million in 2013, but that’s only his salary cap cost if he’s on the team. If Palmer is released, his cost goes down to $9.3 million against the salary cap. The Raiders also have the option to spread the cap hit out over two years ($4.67 million per year).